# How worried should we be about Swine Flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 25, 2009, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359 "2009-04-25T23:07:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![stpauler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@stpauler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stpauler)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/81 "2009-04-27T05:09:06Z")
> [@DaphneBlack](#): > > A gathering storm of gay people? 😉 Hmm, the Iowa Supreme Court makes gay marriage legal,then there’s a SWINE flu, I don’t know about you, but I’m going to get rid of all of my mixed fiber clothing before the apocalypse just to be on the safe side. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/82 "2009-04-27T06:28:06Z")
To stoke the flames a little, [some claims from Mexicans.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm) How seriously to take them is up to you. Oh, and the guy/book I mentioned in my earlier post is Philip Alcabes and _Dread: How Fear and Fantasy Have Fueled Epidemics from the Black Death to Avian Flu._ ---
**Author:** ![Lama\_Pacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Lama\_Pacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lama_Pacos)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/83 "2009-04-27T07:27:18Z")
Ugh. All real risk (whether considerable or not) aside, the way the media non-constructively use stories like this to spread fear infuriates me. For example, [this](http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu/t1home.swinemex.gi.jpg) is the current main image on [CNN.com](http://CNN.com). The discursive framing of the picture offers all sorts of frightening narratives: she’s being taken away to forcible government quarantine, or she’s one of the last survivors. The mass media seem to relish the imagery of concentration camps, of post-apocalypse. Children Of Men. I Am Legend. The woman’s sorrowful expression? She’s probably tired after a long day at work and hates her commute home. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/84 "2009-04-27T08:13:57Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > So the economy’s bad, everybody’s worried about gas prices, there’s a swine flu epidemic, and they’re making a Star Trek movie. It’s the 70s again, isn’t it? The last time something like this happened the nation was swept with Disco Fever. Let’s just pray that doesn’t happen again. ---
**Author:** ![Renee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/renee/32/287_2.png) [@Renee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Renee)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/85 "2009-04-27T08:17:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by Qadgop the Mercotan > > Remember folks, the typical US flu season results in over 40,000 deaths in the US every year. Those numbers aren’t chickens\*\*t. I had no idea. I’m stunned. What does that make the mortality rate for “normal” flu, then? How many people get it every year? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/86 "2009-04-27T09:00:22Z")
> [@Renee](#): > > I had no idea. I’m stunned. What does that make the mortality rate for “normal” flu, then? How many people get it every year? I’m finding normal influenza mortality rates are about 0.1%. I find sources from 2-20% for the Spanish pandemic. [1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics](http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.htm) source CDC history [The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? Workshop Summary](http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309095042&page=57) (subsection: “The Story of Influenza”) Also, the 1918 pandemic saw that the mortality shifted, from the typically susceptible (very young and elderly) to young healthy adults. After a few years this seemed to revert back to normal. ---
**Author:** ![Chief\_Pedant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@Chief\_Pedant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chief_Pedant)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/87 "2009-04-27T13:04:35Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I’m finding normal influenza mortality rates are about 0.1%. I find sources from 2-20% for the Spanish pandemic. > > [1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics](http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.htm) source CDC history > [The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? Workshop Summary](http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309095042&page=57) (subsection: “The Story of Influenza”) > > Also, the 1918 pandemic saw that the mortality shifted, from the typically susceptible (very young and elderly) to young healthy adults. After a few years this seemed to revert back to normal. The single factor which has raised the most concern about the Mexican swine flu strain is the demographic in which deaths have occurred: younger, presumably healthier adults. This is what makes it similar to 1918. As **QtM** points out (and apparently to the surprise of many of you), influenza is a common cause of death. However it most typically is the cause of death for the already weak–young; old; infirm; immunosuppressed. Influenza strains which attack and kill the healthy are of paramount concern. To answer the OP, no one knows–and no one is any good at predicting–what will happen with this strain at a global level. As of right now the Mexican swine flu strain seems to be sensitive to both Tamiflu and Relenza (oseltamivir and zanamivir). We’ll see how long that remains the case… [http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/?s\_cid=s...k\_internal\_001](http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/?s_cid=s...k_internal_001) If it stays sensitive, then the only consequence of significance will be that a bazillion people will take (appropriately and inappropriately) one of those two drugs at the first sniffle. There probably won’t be time to develop and distribute a new vaccine if the spread really takes off. If a virulent flu strain is resistant to these two medicines (the only anti-influenzas currently on the market) then it’s a crapshoot. It might be the case that the whole thing peters out and it might be the case that it’s 1918 all over again, except with better medical supportive care. Stay tuned. No point in panicking and no point in pretending it can’t be a problem. No one knows, and to pretend they do is BS. ---
**Author:** ![Fat\_Chance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/8baadc/32.png) [@Fat\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fat_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/88 "2009-04-27T13:04:54Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Cancun has to just love this. Yeah, I’m heading to Cancun for a wedding in a few weeks. Hopefully things won’t get worse and it won’t be cancelled. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/89 "2009-04-27T13:23:56Z")
Wasn’t one of the factors in the 1918 flu the speed at which people contracted it and died? I don’t know much about it, but I remember reading that healthy adults would be fine one moment and dead within a few hours. It seems like a longer period of illness would mean a better chance to treat people and a lower mortality rate than the Spanish flu. I also read that they’ve had luck with using steroids in treating this current flu, which is good news, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Khadaji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Khadaji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Khadaji)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/90 "2009-04-27T13:31:30Z")
Today’s [XKCD](http://xkcd.com/574/) was fun. I particularly liked: > [@](#): > > My Dad said that flu vaccines are linked to Autism, so to be safe from Swine Flu I’m trying to lick and autistic kid. But all the quotes are bizarre. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/91 "2009-04-27T13:39:55Z")
Last night the paper said 1600 or so cases with 100 or so dead. That is a 6 percent mortality rate. I do not know how that stacks up to other flues ,but it does not seem terrible. Only fatalities have been in Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/92 "2009-04-27T13:46:23Z")
Link? I only found this wrt the [1600](http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2009/04/news-roundup-swine-flu-spreads.html) thing: > [@](#): > > The Los Angeles Times writes that the Mexican government says most of the more than 1,600 suspected flu cases in that country “are probably linked to other strains of the flu or respiratory diseases, not the new strain of swine flu.” The Columbus Dispatch reports one case in Ohio from a boy recently returning from Mexico. School classmates were notified and an emergency hotline has been set up statewide. The San Antonio Express-News reports that one South Texas school district has closed for a week after gettting a dozen suspected or confirmed local cases. The Washington Post notes that while the U.S. government has taken steps to respond to the outbreak, the steps so far “fell far short of those that could be invoked in a confirmed pandemic, which could include restricting travel, actively screening travelers for fever or illness, quarantining the sick, closing schools and banning public gatherings.” I see nothing about deaths. -XT ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/93 "2009-04-27T13:53:59Z")
I think gonzomax got his figures from the latest Associated Press story, which says: > [@](#): > > Late Sunday, Mexico’s health secretary raised the number of suspected deaths in that country to 103, and the number of cases to more than 1,600. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/94 "2009-04-27T13:54:07Z")
I’m curious what the incubation period is for this type of influenza - meaning what is time from exposure to presentation of symptoms or contagiousness. ---
**Author:** ![SiXSwordS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/49beb7/32.png) [@SiXSwordS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SiXSwordS)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/95 "2009-04-27T14:37:56Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I’m curious what the incubation period is … > [@](#): > > [Unrelated to any swine influenza virus that has ever been identified in North America. Incubation period unknown but probably 1-7 days, most likely 2-5 day.](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/04/latest_on_swine_flu_from_cdc.php) —— ---
**Author:** ![Kalhoun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/3bc359/32.png) [@Kalhoun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kalhoun)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/96 "2009-04-27T14:43:54Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I’m curious what the incubation period is for this type of influenza - meaning what is time from exposure to presentation of symptoms or contagiousness. I just heard (or read) on CNN that it was a 2-week period. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/97 "2009-04-27T14:48:23Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Forget Nebraska! I’m heading directly to Boulder. Well I’m already in Boulder, so I guess I’ll look up that centenarian and start quizzing her about her sex life in the 20’s and 30’s. Let’s team up- I’ll brief you when you get here. Bring your power tools… ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/98 "2009-04-27T15:04:12Z")
> [@Khadaji](#): > > Today’s [XKCD](http://xkcd.com/574/) was fun. I particularly liked: > But all the quotes are bizarre. I know at least two of them are jokes. HanneloreEC is a shout-out to another webcomic (the twitter belongs to a fictional hypochondriac character from said webcomic) and you can safely assume that any reference to Madagascar and epidemics on the internet is a joke. ---
**Author:** ![EpicNonsense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c37758/32.png) [@EpicNonsense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EpicNonsense)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/99 "2009-04-27T15:10:06Z")
40 confirmed cases in U.S. Up from 20… > **[40 confirmed swine flu cases in US, no deaths: WHO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/PoliticsNation/40-confirmed-swine-flu-cases-in-US-no-deaths-WHO/articleshow/4456212.cms)** > > The World Health Organization says there are now 40 confirmed cases of swine flu in the United States and that it \`\`very concerned'' about the disease's spread. I’ll update once I find locations of these cases. (or someone else can) ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/100 "2009-04-27T15:16:15Z")
From what I understand the cases in New York are relatively mild because Americans go to the Doctor if they get sick. In Mexico they waited until they were really sick and so it spread more rapidly and people died. I think that in America we will probably be fine. Drink lots of fluids, have some vitamin C and Mom’s chicken soup. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=6)