# How worried should we be about Swine Flu? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 25, 2009, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359 "2009-04-25T23:07:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Laudenum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7993a0/32.png) [@Laudenum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laudenum)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/101 "2009-04-27T15:23:09Z")
Can I ask, WHY was the 1916 pandemic worse for healthy adults? Was it the poor conditions in the trenches, or what was it? ---
**Author:** ![Khadaji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Khadaji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Khadaji)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/102 "2009-04-27T15:37:25Z")
> [@Bosstone](#): > > I know at least two of them are jokes. HanneloreEC is a shout-out to another webcomic (the twitter belongs to a fictional hypochondriac character from said webcomic) and you can safely assume that any reference to Madagascar and epidemics on the internet is a joke. I figured they were all jokes - but funny in as much as I could picture them being real. (And they’re all pretty bizarre). ---
**Author:** ![Skara\_Brae](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f0a364/32.png) [@Skara\_Brae](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skara_Brae)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/103 "2009-04-27T15:39:59Z")
> [@Laudenum](#): > > Can I ask, WHY was the 1916 pandemic worse for healthy adults? Was it the poor conditions in the trenches, or what was it? They believe that flu provoked cytokine storms, which makes your immune system work against you. From wiki “a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset.” > **[Cytokine storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm)** > > A cytokine storm, also called hypercytokinemia, is a pathological reaction in humans and other animals in which the innate immune system causes an uncontrolled and excessive release of pro-inflammatory signaling molecules called cytokines. Cytokines are a normal part of the body's immune response to infection, but their sudden release in large quantities may cause multisystem organ failure and death. > Cytokine storms may be caused by infectious or non-infectious etiologies, especially viral resp... ---
**Author:** ![EpicNonsense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c37758/32.png) [@EpicNonsense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EpicNonsense)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/104 "2009-04-27T15:49:57Z")
Update to last post: The 20 new confirmed U.S. cases appear to be from NY I will update once I find more details on this… ---
**Author:** ![herownself](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8baadc/32.png) [@herownself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/herownself)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/105 "2009-04-27T16:10:58Z")
OK - time to throw down some facts. (Before I say anything else, my disclaimer is that I am an epidemiologist, though not a specialist in influenzas) (Oh, and I did work at CDC while the panic flames of Avian Flu were being fanned - by CDC, IMHO) First, the very most important thing that we do not know about this swine flu epidemic is the **population at risk**. When we look at how likely a disease (any disease) is to spread to others, we need to know 2 numbers: how many people have the disease, and how many could have gotten the disease because they were exposed. When you divide the first number by the second number, you arrive at the risk of getting the disease. And the risk is what everyone really wants to know. But we don’t know it. Another very important thing we do not know is case fatality. That’s really what’s upsetting everyone, obviously. But the problem is that we really don’t know how many cases there are. Which leads to case definition. In Mexico they’ve defined cases (it seems) as having been admitted to the hospital with severe flu-like illness, and deaths as being due to H1N1. That’s not a great case definition, and in the US we haven’t had any hospitalizations yet (I think). So, we need to be able to define a population at risk of developing the illness before we can know how transmissible it is in the general public. And, we can’t rely too much on the Mexican numbers about fatality because they start with a much sicker population than we would in the US or Canada. I think it’s also important to point out that the fact that this is a swine flu doesn’t make it extra icky and weird. We get animal influenzas all the time. The influenza that we get every winter is usually an variant of a bird influenza. The reason that we get it in the winter has a lot to do with avian migratory patterns. Someone wanted to know what a pandemic looked like? AIDS what a pandemic looks like, it’s a world pandemic. Now, if can be forgiven, I just want to toot my own horn for just a moment. People freaked out over ‘bird flu’ and the flames really got fanned by a lot of people. some of them should be ashamed. I started reading incidental articles about H5N1 (bird flu) in 1998. Working at the CDC, people would ask me about bird flu - on airplanes, at parties, waiting in line at the bank, anywhere. They asked because they were afraid, and I told them that so far the only thing that we knew for sure was that a bunch of birds had died from it. I told them that bird flu might be the next big influenza scare, but that it was just as likely that the next scare would be something completely different. And furthermore that it might be this year or it might be in 25 years. We didn’t luck out on the 25 years, but it wasn’t bird flu. so \. Of course it was a good thing that people got together and talked about how to handle an influenza crises, but it sure as heck wasn’t necessary to scare the public! Now, wash your hands. With soap. And then use a paper towel to open the bathroom door or else you’ve just un-washed your hands! [I probably won’t be able to be back to check the thread very often - migraines and computers don’t go well together. But I wanted to throw in my share of facts.] ---
**Author:** ![wonder9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c57346/32.png) [@wonder9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonder9)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/106 "2009-04-27T17:07:40Z")
THIS is why I pay my dues once a year. Thank you so much. BTW, my husband is a family medicine doc and he says the hysteria has already started. Someone came into his office this morning DEMANDING anti-virals. Because they had been on plane—last week—from St. Louis—to Chapel Hill, NC.:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/107 "2009-04-27T17:24:07Z")
Let’s not panic, shall we? The reported cases in the US have been mild. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/108 "2009-04-27T17:28:52Z")
My wife is a Spanish language medical interpreter for a Chicago-area hospital and says that her staff is “freaking out” about the situation. Mainly because they deal with a lot of brand new immigrants who won’t admit that they just came over the border. She says the hospital is coming up with a plan (or maybe implementing an existing plan… I’d like to think that they keep something on file) and thankfully there’s no reported/confirmed Chicago cases yet. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/109 "2009-04-27T17:39:35Z")
> [@herownself](#): > > Of course it was a good thing that people got together and talked about how to handle an influenza crises, but it sure as heck wasn’t necessary to scare the public! In a lot of cases, the public scares themselves. And the CDC has varying motivations - they’d like people to wash their hands more often and cover their mouths when they sneeze or cough. They want taxpayers to support funding, because someday there will be another 1919 like outbreak. Educating people when they are open to being educated fans the flames of hysteria, but its also a lot more effective than trying to get through to them when they just had a bad case of the sniffles and an upset tummy, got over it in two days and called it “the flu” and are convinced that this is no big deal. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/110 "2009-04-27T17:40:28Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I just saw on one of the news feeds that some countries are banning imports of pork. Now I would understand an import on pigs, but is influenza transmissible in food products? I always though it was spread by contact or aerosol transmission. In other words, is this legitimate or an hysterical reaction? Hysterical according to the EU health officials. They say it is only contagious between people. And countries should not use the scare as an excuse to raise trade walls. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/111 "2009-04-27T17:40:36Z")
Mexican deaths now at 149. The flu can quickly intelligent design into a more virulent variety. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/112 "2009-04-27T17:42:57Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Mexican deaths now at 149. > The flu can quickly intelligent design into a more virulent variety. A disease organism is better-served by being _less_ virulent. Otherwise, its host human dies before spreading the disease. ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/113 "2009-04-27T17:44:23Z")
**herownself** , thanks for the expert opinion. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/114 "2009-04-27T18:00:40Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I just saw on one of the news feeds that some countries are banning imports of pork. Now I would understand an import on pigs, but is influenza transmissible in food products? I always though it was spread by contact or aerosol transmission. In other words, is this legitimate or an hysterical reaction? No, as already mentioned, it is not transmitted in food products. I did note, however, that many, if not all, of the countries banning pork products have a high Muslim population (Indonesia, Lebannon, etc.) which means, first of all, there’s probably not a lot of pork being sold there anyway, and second, with pigs being seen as ritually unclean + it being called the _swine_ flu this is probably being done to appease the superstitious masses. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/115 "2009-04-27T18:11:10Z")
I believe it was Susan Collins who championed removing pandemic funding from the budget. I bet her people are watching this very closely. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/116 "2009-04-27T18:18:02Z")
> [@](#): > > **Israeli official: Swine flu name offensive** > The outbreak of swine flu should be renamed “Mexican” influenza in deference to Muslim and Jewish sensitivities over pork, said an Israeli health official Monday. > > Deputy Health Minister Yakov Litzman said the reference to pigs is offensive to both religions and “we should call this Mexican flu and not swine flu,” he told a news conference at a hospital in central Israel. > > Both Judaism and Islam consider pigs unclean and forbid the eating of pork products. > > Scientists are unsure where the new swine flu virus originally emerged, though it was identifed first in the United States. They say there is nothing about the virus that makes it “Mexican” and worry such a label would be stigmatizing. > > Two Israelis who recently visited Mexico have been hospitalized with symptoms of the flu. Health authorities have not yet confirmed whether they actually have the virus. > > The current strain of swine flu is thought to have originated in Mexico where more than 100 people have been killed by the disease so far. > > Laboratories in the U.S. and Canada have confirmed that of the samples tested so far, the swine flu virus in Mexico and U.S. appear to be the same. [Israeli official: Swine flu name offensive](http://beeqube.com/article/israelio) - “Swine flu” is offensive. But naming it the “Mexican flu” is a-ok. What an idiot. I say we call it the “Litzman flu”. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/117 "2009-04-27T18:29:03Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > That’s a helluva statistic! If this flu kills 5 people in the US, there will be 24/7 fevered news coverage, bold headlines, and mass panic, but, hey, 40,000 _other_ people died last year (and the year before and the year before that) from regular flu that nobody knows about. Well, few people know. > > Wow, just…wow! to put it into perspective, one Pennsic War about 7 or 8 years ago, we had some dipwad go hermitile at our keeping about 3 dozen eggs on the table in the kitchen tent instead of in the cooler … the number of eggs we normally went through making breakfast for the people in our campsite. She was pitching a screaming hissy fit over salmonella. I pointed out that there had been something like 35000 cases of death in the US from salmonella the previous year and also pointed out that that was an absolute miniscule segment of the population and that eggs would be good as they were still in the shell and if we kept reaching into the cooler for a pair of eggs when anybody wanted an omelet we would be risking a lot more food issues from the stuff in the cooler not being kept continually cool. Then we pointed out that in general eggs would be safe at room temp while still in the shell for several DAYS. It wasnt like we were feeding anybody raw eggs anyway, You really _cant_ make a rare omelette :smack: ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/118 "2009-04-27T18:47:09Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > A disease organism is better-served by being _less_ virulent. Otherwise, its host human dies before spreading the disease. The 1918 one took young healthy strong people down quickly. It may have been a stupid flue ,but thats what it did. They get more resistant and more efficient. ---
**Author:** ![wonder9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c57346/32.png) [@wonder9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonder9)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/119 "2009-04-27T19:07:19Z")
[Cytokine storm](http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.PrimerCytokineStorm) Wow. Can’t believe I was the first to post that. Go me! ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2009, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359/120 "2009-04-27T19:08:49Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > [Israeli official: Swine flu name offensive](http://beeqube.com/article/israelio) > > - “Swine flu” is offensive. But naming it the “Mexican flu” is a-ok. What an idiot. Exactly what I was going to say. What an ass. I can’t even see what he THINKS is offensive. Is the word “swine” in and of itself an insult to Jews regardless of context? What a douchebag. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-worried-should-we-be-about-swine-flu/494359.md?page=7)