the correlation between the US and foreign stocks has gotten tighter and tighter ove the years - that is unlikely to work.
It depends on whether you live inside or outside the US. The US will never default on its treasury bonds - as it can always sell more - which granted will/could create huge inflation, but those worried about that are just being silly. Same goes with paper currency - the US would never seize something that would make it worthless. Once we are no longer the worlds de facto currency - things might be different, but for now - when we can pay people back in something we make - there is very little risk of default on that debt.
You can buy credit default swaps (well not sure if YOU can, but they are available) on this happening, but I wouldn’t bet on those people being around to be able to pay.
I think it’s hard to say - things are interconnected in ways that are only obvious afterwards. Everyone (almost) predicted inflation with tarp like actions that happened, but it didn’t occur - it turns out that simply increasing the money supply doesn’t increase inflation (in and of itself).
Precious metals do seem to go up with fear, but I’m a little wary about this.
Depends on how much you have as well. Buying a second house to rent out might be the best bet if you live in the US - especially if you live in state that lets you turn over the keys on default.
Build a heavily-defended and well-stocked compound an hour’s drive or two outside of a major city. Get investors to pay huge amounts of money for a bunk for when the balloon goes up (enough to help pay for it, but not enough for them to set up their own bunker). If the world goes south, you’re the local king. If not, hey, free bunker!
Actually an Elementary episode, except without so much of the heavily-stocked and not-a-scam parts.
It depends what you mean by substantial. Like, it would have a measurable effect, but I doubt it would be more than a percent.
The government makes some seignorage profit off of this, but it’s pretty minor in the scheme of things. There would be maybe some added friction in trade if we had to go buy whatever the new reserve currency is.
The idea of shorting a broad index is probably the closest to what the OP wants. Whatever happens, if America goes down the tubes, the stock market is going to tank in the process.
And there’s a long long way between “America is going very badly” and “America no longer has a functional banking system”, so I don’t think worries that you won’t be able to get your money out are super relevant.
