# Howard Dean Post Mortem **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 19, 2004, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058 "2004-02-19T19:32:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/1 "2004-02-19T19:32:13Z")
In January, it was pretty clear that Howard Dean was the front runner. He had the singular position of being able to say that he never supported the war in Iraq particularly (IIRC) due to lack of UN endorsement. He got some big endorsements and I concluded that he was going to get the nomination. Then around mid January the [story](http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2004-01-14-dean-letter_x.htm) that Dean had actually urged Bill Clinton by letter to take military action in Bosnia, in the summer of 95 without waiting for the UN backing broke. He even used the word unilateral. > [@](#): > > _Dean_ > Since it is clearly no longer possible to take action in conjunction with NATO and the United Nations, I have reluctantly concluded that we must take unilateral action Now at the very moment this story broke, I was convinced that Dean was finished. clearly either the basis of his opposition to Iraq was political expediency, or he did not value Iraqis as much as Europeans. I could see no other excuse for the incongruity. Well as we all know, he lost in Iowa and then New Hampshire and so on. But when I read and watch all the post-mortem analyses on Dean, this fact never comes up. Its like the Iowa speech started the downfall , ignoring the fact that it came on the heels of declining polls and the Iowa loss. And IIRC the declining polls started soon after the story of the letter broke. Does anyone agree with me? ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Ashtar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ea924/32.png) [@Lord\_Ashtar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Ashtar)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/2 "2004-02-19T19:42:26Z")
I thought it was the Scream that did his campaign in. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/3 "2004-02-19T20:07:06Z")
The media giveth and the media taketh away. Blessed be the name of the media. Flavor of the month. Fun to build up, fun to tear down. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/4 "2004-02-19T20:08:30Z")
He was done before that. He spent oodles of time and money in Iowa. The voters of that state got a really good look at the product, much closer than most of us will get. They saw and chose. Dean lost in a big way. He lost because he was way too angry, too disrespectful of the average voter, and simply wrong on too many issues. All good reasons. Good riddance. I’m not a Democrat, but the Democratic party needs responsible politicians in it, not bombthrowers. I have faith that, despite my differences with the candidates that are left, our country will survive them. ---
**Author:** ![cichlidiot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f9b8f/32.png) [@cichlidiot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cichlidiot)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/5 "2004-02-19T20:10:40Z")
> [@grienspace](#): > > Does anyone agree with me? I do, or at least think you’re closer to the truth than the media. I noticed the decline, and wondered why everything was being blamed on the yelling. Difficult to say whether the decline would have continued, since I do see the yelling as a part of his demise. I also wondered how much of it being played up in the media, as opposed to the yelling itself, had to do with it. In an interview later (Frontline?), Dean said the audience seemed to be with him, rather than shocked. I felt the yelling issue came to be a media buzz, more of an issue for the media than potential voters. A lot like Bush and his enormous war chest. It’s like the Bush bid cannot be discussed without mentioning the war chest. Often, I find this to be the only thing mentioned as a reason why he might win. I don’t like him, but even I can understand there might be more reasons for him to be reelected. I’m guessing it’s the same with Dean. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/6 "2004-02-19T20:18:36Z")
I don’t think Bosnia was a factor, as I don’t think it got a lot of press. Also, before the primaries began, I think it’s inaccurate to say Howard Dean was the front-runner – after all, _all_ of the nominees had zero delegates at the time. Dean was getting a lot of _attention_ at the time, partially for his opposition to the Iraq war and partially for his internet-grass-roots-fund-raising techniques, but that was not an accurate reflection on how much appeal he had with the voters. Once the primaries got underway and Kerry was drawing the delegates, the media’s attention got shifted, and Dean got relegated to the side as a result. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/7 "2004-02-19T21:24:14Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > I don’t think Bosnia was a factor, as I don’t think it got a lot of press. I agree - I never heard any of this, and I would have remembered. 🙂 Dean based his campaign on opposition to the war with Iraq. Now the Dems are going with someone who voted for it, or a trial lawyer. How this will resonate with their focus on foreign policy and health care remains to be seen. I wonder if Dean will now be considered a liability, and thus be out of the running for VP. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/8 "2004-02-19T21:32:19Z")
Dean’s not going to be a VP nominee. He’s said himself he wouldn’t make a good partner for Kerry since they’re from the same part of the country, and I don’t think he brings anything to Edwards either. I didn’t hear anything about the Bosnia story either. There were problems before the Scream: his poll number had been falling in Iowa in the days prior to the voting. So it seems to me the Iowa voters just didn’t like what they saw. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/9 "2004-02-19T22:01:43Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > I don’t think Bosnia was a factor, as I don’t think it got a lot of press. I’ll agree that it didn’t get a lot of press, but I’m fairly certain that enough Iowans changed their opinion of Dean as a result, starting the slippery slope towards Kerry. > [@](#): > > Also, before the primaries began, I think it’s inaccurate to say Howard Dean was the front-runner – after all, _all_ of the nominees had zero delegates at the time. Dean was getting a lot of _attention_ at the time, partially for his opposition to the Iraq war and partially for his internet-grass-roots-fund-raising techniques, but that was not an accurate reflection on how much appeal he had with the voters. Poll after poll had put Dean on top prior to January 14/2004. can anyone cite otherwise? > [@](#): > > _Marley23_ > I didn’t hear anything about the Bosnia story either. There were problems before the Scream: his poll number had been falling in Iowa in the days prior to the voting. So it seems to me the Iowa voters just didn’t like what they saw. But many or some of us did read about the Bosnian connection just prior to the Iowa caucuses. It floored me and I’m sure many Democrats who paid attention to the news _every_ single day. Can you suggest any other factor that suddenly disillutioned Iowans? I know that the press quickly dropped the story and hence many people were unaware of the Dean endorsement of unilateral military action in Bosnia, but my point is that a number of Iowans did pay attention, were aware, and were instrumental despite media and Dean opposition failure, to begin the process of escorting a candidate out of the running towards the highest office in the world. We may owe a great debt to Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/10 "2004-02-19T22:17:37Z")
From [Slate’s _Chatterbox_](http://slate.msn.com/id/2095715): > [@](#): > > **Dean’s biggest mistake was to run as a fake populist instead of as himself.** > > The trouble with the Howard Dean who today ended his candidacy for president wasn’t that he was too liberal, or too crazy, or too much of a Washington outsider to win the Democratic nomination. The trouble was that he didn’t exist. > > Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was a sensible and decent centrist politician whose greatest asset in a potential match-up with President Bush was his record of fiscal conservatism. > > …He would distance himself from moderate positions he’d taken as governor, often with an untruthful denial that he’d ever held the position in question, and take a more populist and irresponsible stance instead. In time, this created a hugely popular hologram that purported to be Howard Dean. > …The hologram’s cheapest and most alarming statement was his Dec. 1 suggestion on The Diane Rehm Show that President Bush had been warned in advance by the Saudis about the Sept. 11 attacks. Conservative commentators correctly pointed out that it was difficult to distinguish this remark from the one that had brought universal condemnation to Rep. Cynthia McKinney, D-Ga., who lost her seat as a result. **You can probably trace the unraveling of Dean’s campaign to his 9/11 comment.** I think the 9/11 comment got more press than the Bosnia story, no? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/11 "2004-02-19T22:25:56Z")
I agree with **rjung and Marley** on the Bosnia issue. I think I’m as much of a news junkie as those two are, and I never heard about it either. 3 news junkies never even heard of this, and yet it was the defining moment in Dean’s downfall. I don’t think so. It was all about electablility. When people started to look at who could best beat Bush, they didn’t think Dean could do it. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/12 "2004-02-19T22:35:02Z")
Question for \*\*John Mace and rjung and Marley \*\* If you had read about it circa Jan 14, would it have influenced your opinion of Dean? Are there others out there who remember the story breaking out mid January ? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/13 "2004-02-19T22:40:10Z")
and **Shodan** too! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/14 "2004-02-19T22:49:10Z")
re: If I had I heard about the Bosnia story… No, it wouldn’t. Bosnia and Iraq were two very different situations, and very different arguments could be made pro and con for each. Being for or against one does not necessitate being for or against the other. ---
**Author:** ![paperbackwriter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@paperbackwriter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paperbackwriter)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2004, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/15 "2004-02-19T23:44:52Z")
I have a different question for **greinspace**. I really don’t want this to look like a pile-on, however, because you have at least a rational thesis. But if this was a factor, it would have been mentioned by Iowa (and later NH) voters in exit interviews. I don’t remember a single voter mentioning anything like that in news reports of exit polling, nor does a Google News search bring up anything. Neither of these pieces of evidence are definitive, but they are suggestive. Do you know any Iowans or Granite Staters that thought the Bosnia issue was decisive? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/16 "2004-02-20T00:02:56Z")
> [@paperbackwriter](#): > > Do you know any Iowans or Granite Staters that thought the Bosnia issue was decisive? No, but it was decisive for me and I am having difficulty in believing that the publication of this information had no impact on Iowans like it did for me. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/17 "2004-02-20T01:58:26Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Okay, I followed the instructions, and the turtle is now safely installed inside the television. But my February decoder ring hasn’t arrived yet, so I’m unclear as to what shade of blue to paint the gibbon. Can you help? My sentiments exactly! DAMN those crypto-Carlist Jacobites with their poststructuralist cabbage fixations! DOWN WITH TWEEZERS! ---
**Author:** ![paperbackwriter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@paperbackwriter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/paperbackwriter)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/18 "2004-02-20T02:44:39Z")
> [@grienspace](#): > > No, but it was decisive for me and I am having difficulty in believing that the publication of this information had no impact on Iowans like it did for me. Well, I don’t think I can help you with that. But in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, I guess that you are just different from the average NH/IA primary/caucus voter. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/19 "2004-02-20T02:53:53Z")
The important thing about Howard Dean was not that he ran, but _how_ he ran. It showed that a grassroots populist movement was possible once again in this country, that it was possible to have a contender that was not entirely a part of the machine. Scared the hell out of people. Clark was the Clinton Machine defense, he was ‘supposed’ to be the dark horse candidate, and Dean blew through him. I never expected Dean to win… but maybe next time. ---
**Author:** ![vanilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f19dbf/32.png) [@vanilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vanilla)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2004, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058/20 "2004-02-20T03:25:28Z")
2008! Yeeeaaahhhhhh! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/howard-dean-post-mortem/230058.md?page=2)