# How's Al Franken's Senate bid going? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 12, 2008, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239 "2008-02-12T01:57:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2008, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/201 "2008-11-24T20:21:56Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > In this kind of situation, there really should be some provision for a runoff between the top two finishers. Well, an Instant Runoff Voting system, where you rank candidates 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc., has been proposed several times now, but has never been passed by the Legislature. And even if it had been, Governor Tim Pawlenty would have immediately vetoed it. He has never won a majority of the votes in either of his elections for Governor, and would have been defeated both times under such a system. As would have many other Republicans, like Michelle Bachman and Erik Paulson. They would never support any kind of a runoff system. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2008, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/202 "2008-11-24T20:24:06Z")
Nate Silver’s site predicts Franken will win by 27 votes. It gets pretty detailed and teh math scares me, so [I’ll just leave a link here](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-franken-to-win-recount-by-27.html). ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/203 "2008-11-24T20:35:18Z")
Seems to me that’ll be a real test for Silver’s methodologies. He was hardly alone in predicting Obama’s victory; he was mostly alone, though not totally alone, in sticking to his guns about Begich’s eventual win over Stevens; but he’s the only one I can see putting an actual prediction, complete with hard number, on the Franken/Coleman recount. If he nails this, he’s going to have temples built in his name. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2008, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/204 "2008-11-24T20:47:38Z")
Didn’t he nail both the popular and electoral margins in the Presdential election? I think he was also really close, if not dead on, in his Senate projections. Calling something as close as this Franken/Coleman thing within even 10 votes would be the equivalent of shooting the balls off a fly. I’ve seen Silver on television, and he’s extremely geeky. He looks like he does nothing but obsessively crunch numbers all day, so that gives me confidence. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2008, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/205 "2008-11-24T21:22:04Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Seems to me that’ll be a real test for Silver’s methodologies. He was hardly alone in predicting Obama’s victory; he was mostly alone, though not totally alone, in sticking to his guns about Begich’s eventual win over Stevens; but he’s the only one I can see putting an actual prediction, complete with hard number, on the Franken/Coleman recount. If he nails this, he’s going to have temples built in his name. Make sure you read the last three paragraphs of his analysis article: > [@](#): > > Now, we can attempt to solve this equation at the statewide level. When we plug in a t of .499956 – Franken was picked on just slightly very less than half of the ballots during the initial count – we get a value for franken\_net of .837. That is, Franken will gain a net of .837 votes for every 10,000 cast. With a total of 2,885,555 ballots having been recorded in the initial count, this works out to a projected gain of 242 votes for Franken statewide. Since Norm Coleman led by 215 votes in the initial count, this suggests that Franken will win by 27 votes once the recount process is complete (including specifically the adjudication of all challenged ballots). > > The error bars on this regression analysis are fairly high, and so even if you buy my analysis, you should not regard Franken as more than a very slight favorite. Nevertheless, there is good reason to believe that the high rate of ballot challenges is in fact hurting Franken disproportionately, and that once such challenges are resolved, Franken stands to gain ground, perhaps enough to let him overtake Coleman. > > (Note: it is also possible to build a multivariate regression model that attempts to solve for both Franken and Coleman’s totals in an absolute sense, rather than Franken’s gain relative to Coleman. This multivariate model produces a slightly more optimistic result for Franken, suggesting that he will gain 254 votes statewide and Coleman will lose 12, producing a net swing of 268 votes toward Franken.) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/206 "2008-11-25T16:36:20Z")
Franken lost votes in Hennepin County, where he was expected to gain ([cite](http://www.minnpost.com/dailyglean/2008/11/25/4832/daily_glean_strib_editorialists_bring_on_recount_lawsuit)). In other news, the _Star-Tribune_ has called for violations of [state law](http://www.startribune.com/opinion/editorials/35015804.html) in the recount. Even the Strib itself admits > [@](#): > > This state is blessed with election laws that are definitive and clear. The chapter on absentee ballots alone runs 20 pages in the statute books. The rules setting out what does and does not constitute an acceptable absentee ballot are taken very seriously by election judges. So they call on the Franken campaign to file a lawsuit, so that a judge has a chance to order that these definitive, clear statutes can be set aside. Sore-Loserman all over again. Lost under the rules? Change them and try again. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/207 "2008-11-25T16:40:39Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Franken lost votes in Hennepin County, where he was expected to gain ([cite](http://www.minnpost.com/dailyglean/2008/11/25/4832/daily_glean_strib_editorialists_bring_on_recount_lawsuit)). > . Due to the exponentially increasing number of challenges it is impossible to tell whether Franken gained or lost vote in Hennepin counties or anywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/208 "2008-11-25T16:42:10Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Franken lost votes in Hennepin County, where he was expected to gain ([cite](http://www.minnpost.com/dailyglean/2008/11/25/4832/daily_glean_strib_editorialists_bring_on_recount_lawsuit)). > > In other news, the _Star-Tribune_ has called for violations of [state law](http://www.startribune.com/opinion/editorials/35015804.html) in the recount. Even the Strib itself admitsSo they call on the Franken campaign to file a lawsuit, so that a judge has a chance to order that these definitive, clear statutes can be set aside. > > Sore-Loserman all over again. Lost under the rules? Change them and try again. :rolleyes: Nothing in that editorial “calls for violations of state law”. Read it again. For comprehension. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/209 "2008-11-25T16:44:36Z")
That Hennepin thing is misleading. It’s only because Coleman is challenging anything and everything. The real count is not known yet. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/210 "2008-11-25T16:46:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :rolleyes: Nothing in that editorial “calls for violations of state law”. Read it again. For comprehension. I’ve quoted the parts where it does. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/211 "2008-11-25T16:49:46Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > I’ve quoted the parts where it does. The quoted part does not. Neither does any other passage. (N.B.: Calling for a lawsuit to challenge or test a law is not the same as calling for a violation of a law. As you know.) ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/212 "2008-11-25T16:56:13Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Franken lost votes in Hennepin County, where he was expected to gain ([cite](http://www.minnpost.com/dailyglean/2008/11/25/4832/daily_glean_strib_editorialists_bring_on_recount_lawsuit)). > > In other news, the _Star-Tribune_ has called for violations of [state law](http://www.startribune.com/opinion/editorials/35015804.html) in the recount. Even the Strib itself admitsSo they call on the Franken campaign to file a lawsuit, so that a judge has a chance to order that these definitive, clear statutes can be set aside. > > Sore-Loserman all over again. Lost under the rules? Change them and try again. Nobody has lost under the rules yet. BTW, which side is it that is challenging perfectly marked ballots because they have a vote for McCain and a vote for Franken? ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/213 "2008-11-25T17:02:21Z")
> [@](#): > > It asks either for a decision to overlook or overturn a portion of the state’s absentee ballot statute Let’s just overlook what twenty pages of legislation says. Convince yourself of whatever you like - I realize that anything and everything that Franken does is going to be fine with you. After all, he is a Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/214 "2008-11-25T18:28:52Z")
And nothing he does will please you. You are still a repub after the disaster they caused. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/215 "2008-11-25T18:43:02Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > And nothing he does will please you. You are still a repub after the disaster they caused. Didn’t you know? Despite the fact that the Republicans had been in control of the House for 12 years and the White House for 8, the economic meltdown is all Carter’s and Clinton’s faults. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/216 "2008-11-25T18:43:49Z")
And who’s this “Loserman” you keep bringing up? You mean the guy running around the country the last few months telling us why we must not elect Obama? That Loserman? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/217 "2008-11-25T19:11:49Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > And who’s this “Loserman” you keep bringing up? You mean the guy running around the country the last few months telling us why we must not elect Obama? That Loserman? Yes. The one about whom the President-elect was big enough to ask Senate Dems not to show him the door. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/218 "2008-11-25T19:38:20Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Didn’t you know? Despite the fact that the Republicans had been in control of the House for 12 years and the White House for 8, the economic meltdown is all Carter’s and Clinton’s faults. And Trumans and Kennedys. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/219 "2008-11-25T20:07:18Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Didn’t you know? Despite the fact that the Republicans had been in control of the House for 12 years and the White House for 8, the economic meltdown is all Carter’s and Clinton’s faults. Not that I expect facts to put a damper on your enthusiasm, but unless you can come up with a quote where I blamed Carter or Clinton for the currect recession, I would appreciate if you could refrain from making things up and assigning them to me. Be responsible for your own fantasies, if you please. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239/220 "2008-11-25T20:35:11Z")
I think Republicans and Democrats have equally sucked. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-al-frankens-senate-bid-going/437239.md?page=12)