# How's it going (theeconomystupid)? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035 "2016-03-05T20:32:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2016, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/21 "2016-03-31T23:46:46Z")
Croupier Peter Schiff, the Austrian School dude who _amazingly_ “foretold the 2007-8 collapse”, [says that we are in a recession now (warning: link to The Blaze)](http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/03/31/peter-schiff-warns-of-real-problem-with-u-s-economy-when-is-the-fed-going-to-acknowledge-it/) and has warned that [a major correction is imminent](http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/12/31/peter-schiff-financial-crisis-interview/). Not sure how seriously to take this guy. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2016, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/22 "2016-04-01T03:33:28Z")
> [@](#): > > Runaway public spending combined with excessively loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other global central banks will push gold to $5,000 per ounce within the next two years, noted investor Peter Schiff said Thursday. That was on [October 25, 2012](http://www.cnbc.com/id/49550053). > [@](#): > > On CNBC’s “Futures Now” Thursday, Peter Schiff stood behind his previous call that gold will reach $5,000. “It’s still going to go there,” said Schiff when he was asked about his uber-bullish prediction. “I don’t think there’s that much downside [in gold] because I think most of this is already built into the price,” he added. > > According to Schiff, regardless of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen says, the U.S. economy is “rapidly going into a recession,” which will inevitably trigger the central bank to retract the rate hike and reinstate gold as the safe haven asset it once was. That was on [December 18, 2015](http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/17/gold-is-still-going-to-5000-peter-schiff.html) Was Peter Schiff right about the 2008 collapse? Not according to [Michael Shedlock in 2009](http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html). > [@](#): > > There are numerous YouTube videos, articles, and references to Peter Schiff being “right” rapidly circulating the globe. While Schiff was indeed correct about the US imploding, most of the praise heaped on Schiff is simply unwarranted, and I can prove it. Schiff is a doomster. That’s his only drum and he beats it constantly. Bad things happen with fair regularity, so his predictions will occasionally align with current events. Believe him at your own risk. Quote him never. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2016, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/23 "2016-06-04T18:53:32Z")
[The jobs report for May looks pretty not good](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-just-38000-new-jobs-in-may-2016-06-03). Job creation was a 23% of target expectations, which looks like a general trend. This may or may not be a problem. I heard it suggested on the radio yesterday that there may be a sort of saturation situation, where the economy simply does not have the overall job creation capacity to approach the target. But it seems likely that those wanting to supplant incumbents will probably seize upon this with blood-in-the-water glee and worry it right off the bone. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2016, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/24 "2016-06-04T19:45:08Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Croupier Peter Schiff, the Austrian School dude who _amazingly_ “foretold the 2007-8 collapse”, [says that we are in a recession now (warning: link to The Blaze)](http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/03/31/peter-schiff-warns-of-real-problem-with-u-s-economy-when-is-the-fed-going-to-acknowledge-it/) and has warned that [a major correction is imminent](http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/12/31/peter-schiff-financial-crisis-interview/). Not sure how seriously to take this guy. Schiff may or may not be correct. I suspect the economy will fall off a cliff at some point. However, timing that point is next to impossible even for the cleverest of Wall Street billionaires. Saying that there has been a correlation in the past decade or two between the end of a Presidency and an economic downturn. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/25 "2016-06-04T20:41:23Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Schiff may or may not be correct. I suspect the economy will fall off a cliff at some point. However, timing that point is next to impossible even for the cleverest of Wall Street billionaires. Saying that there has been a correlation in the past decade or two between the end of a Presidency and an economic downturn. If I make a prediction at the start at the beginning of every year that the market will collapse, eventually, I will be proven a prophet. But that doesn’t make me a very accurate one over the long term. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/26 "2016-06-04T20:54:47Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > [The jobs report for May looks pretty not good](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gains-just-38000-new-jobs-in-may-2016-06-03). Job creation was a 23% of target expectations, which looks like a general trend. > > This may or may not be a problem. I heard it suggested on the radio yesterday that there may be a sort of saturation situation, where the economy simply does not have the overall job creation capacity to approach the target. But it seems likely that those wanting to supplant incumbents will probably seize upon this with blood-in-the-water glee and worry it right off the bone. I agree that economic problems represent a possible problem for the party currently in the White House, and that could mean another challenge for Clinton. Although the data represents just one month of numbers ,the general hiring trend has gone downward in recent months suggesting a possible slowdown. There are two factors as I see them: 1. The global economy has been in poor shape the last 12-18 months and the effects are beginning to be felt here. The decline of economies worldwide has meant the return of a stronger dollar, which makes it harder for American companies to sell goods overseas. This was eventually going to catch up with us sooner or later. 2. The decline in energy prices has also been a drag. While we might enjoy saving money at the pump, the steepness and depth of the decline have hurt. Energy affects more than just companies like Exxon. There are manufacturers, suppliers, and vendors of energy equipment. There is the energy real estate market. The financial sector is heavily invested in energy. And that’s saying nothing of the countless investments they make to individual homeowners who are employed by these industries. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2016, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/27 "2016-06-05T01:46:16Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I agree that economic problems represent a possible problem for the party currently in the White House, and that could mean another challenge for Clinton. > > Although the data represents just one month of numbers ,the general hiring trend has gone downward in recent months suggesting a possible slowdown. There are two factors as I see them: > > 1. The global economy has been in poor shape the last 12-18 months and the effects are beginning to be felt here. The decline of economies worldwide has meant the return of a stronger dollar, which makes it harder for American companies to sell goods overseas. This was eventually going to catch up with us sooner or later. > > 2. The decline in energy prices has also been a drag. While we might enjoy saving money at the pump, the steepness and depth of the decline have hurt. Energy affects more than just companies like Exxon. There are manufacturers, suppliers, and vendors of energy equipment. There is the energy real estate market. The financial sector is heavily invested in energy. And that’s saying nothing of the countless investments they make to individual homeowners who are employed by these industries. 1. The U.S. economy has in fact been stronger than any other western economy over the past few years. We’re almost entirely fortunate in that, but being the best of the worst is always a hard sell. No good path to success exists in a global turndown. One nitpick: if it’s harder to sell goods overseas, it’s easier and cheaper to import them, which is a positive, although harder to see and evaluate. 2. Again, any major change is a two-edged sword. The auto industry is having a fantastic year overall, although sales dipped in May, and the lower gas prices are a part of that. More people are using their cars for travel and tourism, as well. The number of people who lose jobs as a result of low energy prices is more easily communicated than these widely distributed gains. Overall, the economy is weakly positive, a position we’ve been in for seven straight years. That’s utterly remarkable in a time of global weakness - and infinitely preferable to any negative position - but weakness is easily exploitable. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2016, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/28 "2016-06-05T04:50:37Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > The economy is doing fine for people who … have money to save/invest … > People living paycheck-to-paycheck in '08 are … still struggling and/or poor. A rising GDP or falling unemployment number doesn’t help them in a directly noticeable way. For them, the economy is not good. Yes, focusing on _mean_ averages gives a faulty picture. If you insist on using a single number, use the _median_. The median household in America would have trouble if they missed a single paycheck. A recent article in _The Atlantic_ points out that median household net worth fell 26% between 1983 and 2013 with inflation adjustment. The decline was 64% in the 4th income quintile and a whopping 85% in the bottom income quintile. _ **Income and wealth inequality are the big story today, not raw GDP or employment figures.** _ And no, illegal immigration is not the cause of rising inequality. But yes, inequality does impact mean prosperity! The rich, already sated with caviar, put their excess dollars into financial schemes, making the unproductive Wall St. sector the major engine of “American growth.” Manufacturers of useful consumer goods do less well, since the _hoi polloi_ have been stripped of buying power. PS: The Democrats outperform Trump significantly among lower-income voters. Trumpists’ rage largely comes _not_ from economic suffering, but from confused rage and wedge issues. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2016, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035/29 "2016-06-05T05:43:32Z")
I get the impression that the Republicans do everything they can to inhibit the franchise of lower income voters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hows-it-going-theeconomystupid/748035.md?page=1)