Croupier Peter Schiff, the Austrian School dude who amazingly “foretold the 2007-8 collapse”, says that we are in a recession now (warning: link to The Blaze) and has warned that a major correction is imminent. Not sure how seriously to take this guy.
That was on October 25, 2012.
That was on December 18, 2015
Was Peter Schiff right about the 2008 collapse? Not according to Michael Shedlock in 2009.
Schiff is a doomster. That’s his only drum and he beats it constantly. Bad things happen with fair regularity, so his predictions will occasionally align with current events. Believe him at your own risk. Quote him never.
The jobs report for May looks pretty not good. Job creation was a 23% of target expectations, which looks like a general trend.
This may or may not be a problem. I heard it suggested on the radio yesterday that there may be a sort of saturation situation, where the economy simply does not have the overall job creation capacity to approach the target. But it seems likely that those wanting to supplant incumbents will probably seize upon this with blood-in-the-water glee and worry it right off the bone.
Schiff may or may not be correct. I suspect the economy will fall off a cliff at some point. However, timing that point is next to impossible even for the cleverest of Wall Street billionaires. Saying that there has been a correlation in the past decade or two between the end of a Presidency and an economic downturn.
If I make a prediction at the start at the beginning of every year that the market will collapse, eventually, I will be proven a prophet. But that doesn’t make me a very accurate one over the long term.
I agree that economic problems represent a possible problem for the party currently in the White House, and that could mean another challenge for Clinton.
Although the data represents just one month of numbers ,the general hiring trend has gone downward in recent months suggesting a possible slowdown. There are two factors as I see them:
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The global economy has been in poor shape the last 12-18 months and the effects are beginning to be felt here. The decline of economies worldwide has meant the return of a stronger dollar, which makes it harder for American companies to sell goods overseas. This was eventually going to catch up with us sooner or later.
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The decline in energy prices has also been a drag. While we might enjoy saving money at the pump, the steepness and depth of the decline have hurt. Energy affects more than just companies like Exxon. There are manufacturers, suppliers, and vendors of energy equipment. There is the energy real estate market. The financial sector is heavily invested in energy. And that’s saying nothing of the countless investments they make to individual homeowners who are employed by these industries.
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The U.S. economy has in fact been stronger than any other western economy over the past few years. We’re almost entirely fortunate in that, but being the best of the worst is always a hard sell. No good path to success exists in a global turndown. One nitpick: if it’s harder to sell goods overseas, it’s easier and cheaper to import them, which is a positive, although harder to see and evaluate.
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Again, any major change is a two-edged sword. The auto industry is having a fantastic year overall, although sales dipped in May, and the lower gas prices are a part of that. More people are using their cars for travel and tourism, as well. The number of people who lose jobs as a result of low energy prices is more easily communicated than these widely distributed gains.
Overall, the economy is weakly positive, a position we’ve been in for seven straight years. That’s utterly remarkable in a time of global weakness - and infinitely preferable to any negative position - but weakness is easily exploitable.
Yes, focusing on mean averages gives a faulty picture. If you insist on using a single number, use the median.
The median household in America would have trouble if they missed a single paycheck. A recent article in The Atlantic points out that median household net worth fell 26% between 1983 and 2013 with inflation adjustment. The decline was 64% in the 4th income quintile and a whopping 85% in the bottom income quintile.
Income and wealth inequality are the big story today, not raw GDP or employment figures.
And no, illegal immigration is not the cause of rising inequality. But yes, inequality does impact mean prosperity! The rich, already sated with caviar, put their excess dollars into financial schemes, making the unproductive Wall St. sector the major engine of “American growth.” Manufacturers of useful consumer goods do less well, since the hoi polloi have been stripped of buying power.
PS: The Democrats outperform Trump significantly among lower-income voters. Trumpists’ rage largely comes not from economic suffering, but from confused rage and wedge issues.
I get the impression that the Republicans do everything they can to inhibit the franchise of lower income voters.