# Huerta88 - your handle hurts you **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [May 26, 2006, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344 "2006-05-26T17:52:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Ensign\_Edison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7ab992/32.png) [@Ensign\_Edison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ensign_Edison)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/321 "2006-06-01T18:33:18Z")
And I’m still waiting for that evidence of how stupid face obviously is. Any time now. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/322 "2006-06-01T18:35:33Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Niether. I have no reason to believe that Joe isn’t making the whole thing up. If that’s all I know, I wouldn’t believe either one. [/QUOTE] So your view is both stories are equally credible, on their face? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/323 "2006-06-01T18:37:54Z")
Please refer to the post I just wrote for the other thread, and to this cite: url=http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus/previous/cvus42.pdf You’ll see that the “rarity” argument can only be supported in **Huerta88’s** data set for certain years. In others, the stats suggest that black on white rape occurs **more often** than the converse (specifically, 2002 and 1996, and in 2000, the statistics are exactly the same). If we can’t put a stake in the heart of this monstrosity of illogic, at least we might do so through other means. The rarity argument never had a shred of validity, and posters like **Bricker** ought to be ashamed for giving it any support, let alone offering up the ninja hypothetical he just did. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/324 "2006-06-01T18:38:02Z")
[QUOTE=Ensign Edison] And I’m still waiting for that evidence of how stupid face obviously is. Any time now. [/QUOTE] I too have a question pending. CMC fnord! Oh and, Joe’s story, everybody knows Ninjas carry straight swords :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/325 "2006-06-01T18:39:27Z")
[QUOTE=Ensign Edison] Gee, it sure sounds like you’re offering a rebuttal to a point you previously claimed was never made. But let’s not play Quiz Time. Instead of making up ridiculous hypotheticals, can you address the following points: [/quote] Yes. But once I’ve done so, please answer my question. I’m going somewhere with it. > [@](#): > > 1. National statistics are not useful in local or individual cases. “Useful?” I disagree. > [@](#): > > 1. Statistics are not reliably predictive, and they do not prevent an event which is POSSIBLE from occuring. I agree. > [@](#): > > 1. Race and IQ are linked. Is it right, therefore, to assume that a black person you meet has a lower IQ than you without any other evidence? Are they linked? If they are, and if I HAVE TO MAKE SOME ASSUMPTION, then yes. With no other evidence, I’ll be right in that assumption more often than I’ll be wrong. > [@](#): > > 1. Your hypothethical proposes something which actually is enormously unlikely. What mechanism do you propose to account for the assumption that a white woman stripping at a drunken frat party is more likely to be raped than a black one? What explains what makes the difference in situation the same as the difference between the ‘single robber’ and the ‘ninjas with a helicopter defyng physics’? Yes, my hypo proposes something unlikely. But the question remains: does the likelihood of some event happening have any bearing, no matter how remote, on how credible a report of that event is? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/326 "2006-06-01T18:40:57Z")
Here’s the scenario we should asking about: Marie, a Black woman, claims she was raped by a White man. Janice, a White woman, claims she was raped by a White man. _With no other evidence but their stories, which story, if either, should we adduce more credibility to, and why?_ Later, we are told this: Both crimes took place in a city which is mostly populated by White and Black people with about the same % of each. _Does that change your answer, and why?_ ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/327 "2006-06-01T18:41:34Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] Please refer to the post I just wrote for the other thread, and to this cite: url=[http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus/previous/cvus42.pdf](http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cvus/previous/cvus42.pdf) You’ll see that the “rarity” argument can only be supported in **Huerta88’s** data set for certain years. In others, the stats suggest that black on white rape occurs **more often** than the converse (specifically, 2002 and 1996, and in 2000, the statistics are exactly the same). If we can’t put a stake in the heart of this monstrosity of illogic, at least we might do so through other means. The rarity argument never had a shred of validity, and posters like **Bricker** ought to be ashamed for giving it any support, let alone offering up the ninja hypothetical he just did. [/QUOTE] Your attacl is entirely different. You’re asserting the statistics are inapplicable because they do not show what **Huerta88** claimed they show. I’m very open to that argument. I reject the argument that, no matter what they say, they are irrelevant. Do you see the difference? ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/328 "2006-06-01T18:42:02Z")
What I’m wondering is what do stats have to do with **Bricker’s** scenario? Does the DoJ have numbers on ninja-style liquor store robbers? It makes you wonder why these guys invent the most outlandish scenarios to make their arguments. Is white-on-black rape even comparable to ninja liquor store robbers jumping out of helicopters? ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/329 "2006-06-01T18:50:27Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Your attacl is entirely different. You’re asserting the statistics are inapplicable because they do not show what **Huerta88** claimed they show. I’m very open to that argument. I reject the argument that, no matter what they say, they are irrelevant. Do you see the difference? [/QUOTE] I see the difference, and it is ultimately irrelevant. You ought to be embarrassed either way. They are irrelevant because one cannot determine if this person is lying based on how often other people have said something similar. They are irrelevant because you haven’t been talking about standardized statistics that would be suited to inferring relative risk. They are irrelevant because you _know_ that it is entirely possible for a white man to rape a black woman. How could it not be? Trying to argue through implausible anecdotes, such as a ninja attack on a liquor store is completely misleading and pathetic. They are irrelevant because you have been relying on one stat from one source for one discrete time period (the invalidity of which is illustrated by the inconsistencies in the data over time, as in the link I provided). There is no way to support the use of these data in the manner that you and **Huerta88** have. Absolutely none. You should be ashamed. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/330 "2006-06-01T18:55:48Z")
[QUOTE=you with the face] What I’m wondering is what do stats have to do with **Bricker’s** scenario? Does the DoJ have numbers on ninja-style liquor store robbers? It makes you wonder why these guys invent the most outlandish scenarios to make their arguments. Is white-on-black rape even comparable to ninja liquor store robbers jumping out of helicopters? [/QUOTE] This kind of question is why I called you stupid. Of course there are no DOJ stats on ninja robberies from helicopters. The hypo is intended to illustrate why the likelihood of a given event happening is probative, in some way, judging the credibilitity of a reporter of that event. The more unlikely the event, the less credible the report of it is, ALL OTHER FACTORS BEING EQUAL. ---
**Author:** ![Ensign\_Edison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7ab992/32.png) [@Ensign\_Edison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ensign_Edison)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/331 "2006-06-01T19:00:58Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] This kind of question is why I called you stupid. Of course there are no DOJ stats on ninja robberies from helicopters. The hypo is intended to illustrate why the likelihood of a given event happening is probative, in some way, judging the credibilitity of a reporter of that event. The more unlikely the event, the less credible the report of it is, ALL OTHER FACTORS BEING EQUAL. [/QUOTE] ALL OTHER FACTORS ARE NEVER EQUAL. This is the real world. Frankly, your ignorance about statistics and how they are used is kind of astounding. And you continue in your jackassery. The only stupid person is the one who would take face’s question as if she was seriously wondering that. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/332 "2006-06-01T19:03:11Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] I see the difference, and it is ultimately irrelevant. You ought to be embarrassed either way. [/quote] I disagree. > [@](#): > > They are irrelevant because one cannot determine if this person is lying based on how often other people have said something similar. No one said you could determine if this person is lying. I asked if the information has some bearing on credibility, not if it is ultimately determinative. > [@](#): > > They are irrelevant because you haven’t been talking about standardized statistics that would be suited to inferring relative risk. That is a valid objection to the use of those particular statistics. > [@](#): > > They are irrelevant because you _know_ that it is entirely possible for a white man to rape a black woman. How could it not be? Trying to argue through implausible anecdotes, such as a ninja attack on a liquor store is completely misleading and pathetic. Of course it’s possible. But YOU KNOW that it’s entirely possible for ninjas to rob a liquor store. How is it not possible? Where it seems you’re getting hung up is the relative possibilites of the two scenarios. It is highly unlikely, implausible in the extreme, for a group of ninjas to rob a liquor store. It is not implausible in the extreme for a white man to rape a black woman. Because the two scenarios have such differing levels of plausibility, you reject any comparison between them. But I’m not offering them to compare plausibility. I don’t intend to argue that it’s just as likely to find felonious drunk ninjas as white-on-black rapists. Instead, I offered the hypothetical to show that for ANY event, the plausibility of its occurring is a factor in judging the credibility of a person who claims it happened. > [@](#): > > They are irrelevant because you have been relying on one stat from one source for one discrete time period (the invalidity of which is illustrated by the inconsistencies in the data over time, as in the link I provided). That is an absolutely valid criticism of the statistics. ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/333 "2006-06-01T19:05:39Z")
[QUOTE=Hentor the Barbarian] There is no way to support the use of these data in the manner that you and **Huerta88** have. Absolutely none. You should be ashamed. [/QUOTE] don’t forget the Greek Choruses in that other thread, a veritable ‘whos who’ of prolific posters. there were no shortage of folks calling us names, etc etc etc for calling that argument in question. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/334 "2006-06-01T19:05:59Z")
[QUOTE=Ensign Edison] ALL OTHER FACTORS ARE NEVER EQUAL. This is the real world. Frankly, your ignorance about statistics and how they are used is kind of astounding. And you continue in your jackassery. The only stupid person is the one who would take face’s question as if she was seriously wondering that. [/QUOTE] If she - or you - is attempting to argue that she’s not stupid, a good way to advance that argument would be to not make stupid statements, even in jest. Now, you say all other factors are never equal. That’s fine - and likely true. But **Huerta88** repeatedly said, “… in the absence of any other data…” – in other words, he said “If all other factors were equal.” If your (or her) objection was to this disclaimer, then that’s what should have been said. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/335 "2006-06-01T19:08:50Z")
Look, it really isn’t that complicated. If, in othe other thread, **you with the face** had offered **Hentor** ’s criticism about the stats, I would have applauded her. I DID appluad the person in this thread who offered a simialr criticism, and i acknowledged to **hentor** twp posts up that his criticsm was valid. But do you, gentle readers, see what his criticisms were? He said, in essence, that the statistics don’t say what you claiim they say. That’s a very valid rebuttal. It’s not the same as, “I don’t care what they say; they’re irrelevant.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/336 "2006-06-01T19:10:02Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] Now, you say all other factors are never equal. That’s fine - and likely true. But **Huerta88** repeatedly said, “… in the absence of any other data…” – in other words, he said “If all other factors were equal.” If your (or her) objection was to this disclaimer, then that’s what should have been said. [/QUOTE] OK, so can you repsond to my post # 326 and tell us if that concurs with what \*\*Huerta \*\*has been saying in this tread? ---
**Author:** ![holmes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e95f7d/32.png) [@holmes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/holmes)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/337 "2006-06-01T19:14:10Z")
**Bricker]** Stop saying that, it’s not true. **YWTF** made many, many statements explaining why the stats weren’t of value. **Ensign Edison** listed some of them here. ---
**Author:** ![wring](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/838e76/32.png) [@wring](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wring)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/338 "2006-06-01T19:23:20Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] But do you, gentle readers, see what his criticisms were? He said, in essence, that the statistics don’t say what you claiim they say. That’s a very valid rebuttal. It’s not the same as, “I don’t care what they say; they’re irrelevant.” [/QUOTE] However, the statement “I don’t care what (the stats say) they’re irrelevant” **is** an absolutely acceptable criticism when the stat is indeed irrelevant. For example: we’re arguing about Barry Bonds skills at baseball. You insert “yes, but most self identifying democrats believe Bush is doing a bad job”. And I would indeed say “I don’t care what that stat says, it’s irrelevant”. Perfectly acceptable answer. and that was her point. That even if the data was accurate, it was irrelevant to the issue at hand. You disagree, obviously. Rareity of events can be argued. but not reasonably used in the manner suggested. it’s also relatively rare that a 90 year old woman is raped (by anyone). If a 90 yr old woman reported a rape, would you or would you not want the police, DA etc to take a look at the data involving 90 year old rape victims before investigating her claim in order to evaluate the claim itself? In what way would it indicate anything of value? Certainly other data would be important (medications, physical evidence etc.) but can you honestly tell me that you would support any investigatory agency to **first** look at such a statistic before doing any other investigation? (that should take care of the ‘in absence of any other info’ crowd). ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/339 "2006-06-01T19:48:06Z")
[QUOTE=Bricker] This kind of question is why I called you stupid. Of course there are no DOJ stats on ninja robberies from helicopters. The hypo is intended to illustrate why the likelihood of a given event happening is probative, in some way, judging the credibilitity of a reporter of that event. The more unlikely the event, the less credible the report of it is, ALL OTHER FACTORS BEING EQUAL. [/QUOTE] Huerta’s statistics DON’T SAY ANYTHING about whether any specific allegation is more or less “unlikely.” That’s not the way statistics work. You seem to be confusing statistical rarity with inherent _implausibility_. One liquor store owner reposrts that he has been robbed by a man with one arm. Another lliqor store owner reports that he has been robbed by a man with two arms. Which allegation is inherently more plausible? There is probably a very low statistical probablity that a person who robs a liquor store will only have one arm. Does that mean a victim who reports that the perp had only one arm should be automatically be afforded less credibility than anyone who reports a two-armed robber? I think your insinuation that a black woman being gang-raped by white men has the same inherent plausibility as a store being robbed helicopter full of Ninjas is insulting. Maybe unintentionally so, but think about for a second. Are you really trying to suggest that the former possibility is just as absurd as the latter? Is that the impression you really want to give? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2006, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344/340 "2006-06-01T20:22:52Z")
I have never died. Therefore, if you hear of my death you’ll know someone is lying, big time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/huerta88-your-handle-hurts-you/358344.md?page=18)