Human Population & Natural Resources

Great Debates
21

The problem we are about to face (or are already facing depending on whose numbers are correct) is one that we have never seen before. The global supply of oil will be peaking. The demand is still increasing, and has to increase to avoid recession/depression. The oil supply will level out and then decrease. This will cause price variations that we have not seen. In the 70’s the price of oil spiked up very high - but did not stay there very long because the shortage was aritficial and temporary (having more to do with politics, logistical holdups, and perceptions of a shortage that were not physically true). This shortage is physically true - and will get worse every year. This shortage is not foreseen by most people so when the truth becomes known the reaction could be extreme (due to the nature of our news media - jumping on a big story like it was new today - even when the evidence has been building and debated for years before). All of a sudden every Joe Blow will be talking about an oil shortage and wanting to stock up. Prices will go up , then probably go back down in reaction (ie - less demand for a short time as the price gets so high) then back up as the economy tries to get going again pushing demand back over the now lower capacity to produce, etc.

All of the timing / pricing issues are very speculative and I have no idea how abrubt or gradual such a process will be, but I have worries about what that will do to our world economy when everything depends on cheap transport.

As for running your car on oil from the grocery store, how about your hundreds of neighbors, how about all the farmland put into producing fuel oil instead of food. Also what are the tractors going to run on? Many studies have shown that some biofuels actually take more energy to produce then you get in the end product. How do these fuels even get produced , you ask? Because of money subsidies by the government.

I do not ignore the alternatives. I believed the standard “we’ll just switch to something else when the time comes” just as you do until I starting reading up on the scientific and physical reasons (including thermodynamic analysis of the energy inputs and outputs of various alternatives). The problem is what do you do for everyone’s immediate needs (especially for food) while switching? We don’t have 20 years, we need to be switching now (or at least paving the way a bit more than we are). The reason we use oil/natural gas to begin with is that they are cheaper - they are cheaper because they were abundant and because the energy content/transportability was high. That is not the case for most of the alternatives and that is part of the overall problem.

I agree that we need to build more nuclear plants - new designs that are smaller, cheaper to build than the old dinosaurs and yet are easier to operate and safer, but we aren’t doing it, and it might be too late to do so (for most people) because of the lead time and resources needed.
When the stuff hits the fan, most of our oil resources will be held out for the military to protect the rest of the oil that is available, and less and less will go to farming/ industry/ home heating/ non - military transport.

All of your questions are answerd far better than I can in this short space by the links I listed above (and by people far more qualified by education and job experience than I). Please glance through them, then return here to debate the points further.

I would love nothing more to find that I am wrong, that I am listening to the wrong set of experts.
But when one set is full of scientists (geologists mostly) with lots of industry experience searching for oil, and the other side is mostly economists saying things like " we’ll never run short of resources" and other statements that have no physical meaning, I start to get worried. I look further, see more and more current news stories, see more and more experts agreeing on the peak, just debating the actual date, and I get a little more worried.

Regards

Adamant

22

It is nice that it doesn’t seem to bother anyone that the impact of oil exploration continues to grow. Because you are not Nigerian or Sudanese and you do not have to put up with oil fires and the pillage of your land; you are not Gwich’in people who rely on the caribou that will be destroyed if drilling in the Alaskan reserve proceeds; or Haida people whose land claim is threatened by oil interests. Most of us in North America will remain blissfully unaware of the horrendous costs of the search for oil. A search which will inevitably grow ever more intensive as supplies diminish.

We are happy to let others (Africans, natives) pay the cost for our thirst for oil. We can marginalize the objectors by dismissing them as “environmentalists” or as “radicals,” and as “hoodlums” or “anarchists” when they object more vocally.

It never ceases to amaze me that in most talk I hear about energy (currently, the energy crisis in Ontario, as well as this current discussion which has turned into one about oil), it is always supply that concerns us. As far as my limited understanding of economics tells me, there are two axes on this particular graph: and yet “demand” never seems to factor into the equation. We can find alternative energy sources, yes, and if we are comfortable ravaging other people’s land for oil we can do that too. Wouldn’t it be easier to adjust our lifestyle so we didn’t need so much? Then our actions - not only how we transport ourselves around the city, but how our corporations act globally - will be more sustainable. (I know that’s a dirty word. But I won’t stop praying for the day when when it becomes acceptable.)

23

cowgirl,
The impact of continued oil exploration bothers me very much. That impact will grow worse as oil becomes more precious, and conservation/lifestyle change is important to slow demand.

It is hard to change one’s lifestyle. There are so many pressures driving us to keep driving our cars, going to work - buying the house, the gizmos, all the things we are taught to seek after - and family pressures demand, etc.

I feel as if I am on a huge Lemming drive - we are all being jostled along towards a cliff. Only a few have taken the time to look up and notice the drop as it nears, and we can’t even begin to slow the race - instead it gets faster and faster with more people and more demand for energy every day.

Our whole economic system is geared to constant growth, if you aren’t growing the economy you are in a recession or depression. The only way to keep growing the economy is to use more energy - the single uber-resource that backs the availability of every other resoure. With enough energy we can purify water, reclaim lost land, clean up pollution. With energy running out our options become more limited and the carrying capacity of the land is reduced. Then it is only a matter of time and method until the population adjusts to a lower number, maybe lower by quite a factor and I am particularly worried about that adjustment and how it will affect my children and family and friends.

Thanks for bringing up the point of how much suffering we as a society can accept as long as it is out of sight. That is why by the time we actually see the suffering in our own personal lives - it will be too late for many of the best options.

Regards

Adamant

24

cowgirl,
The impact of continued oil exploration bothers me very much. That impact will grow worse as oil becomes more precious, and conservation/lifestyle change is important to slow demand.

It is hard to change one’s lifestyle. There are so many pressures driving us to keep driving our cars, going to work - buying the house, the gizmos, all the things we are taught to seek after - and family pressures demand, etc.

I feel as if I am on a huge Lemming drive - we are all being jostled along towards a cliff. Only a few have taken the time to look up and notice the drop as it nears, and we can’t even begin to slow the race - instead it gets faster and faster with more people and more demand for energy every day.

Our whole economic system is geared to constant growth, if you aren’t growing the economy you are in a recession or depression. The only way to keep growing the economy is to use more energy - the single uber-resource that backs the availability of every other resoure. With enough energy we can purify water, reclaim lost land, clean up pollution. With energy running out our options become more limited and the carrying capacity of the land is reduced. Then it is only a matter of time and method until the population adjusts to a lower number, maybe lower by quite a factor and I am particularly worried about that adjustment and how it will affect my children and family and friends.

Thanks for bringing up the point of how much suffering we as a society can accept as long as it is out of sight. That is why by the time we actually see the suffering in our own personal lives - it will be too late for many of the best options.

Regards

Adamant