# Hurricane Irma; What if this happened every year? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 12, 2017, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165 "2017-09-12T13:25:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/1 "2017-09-12T13:25:49Z")
It would appear Hurricane Irma will be the most expensive hurricane in the history of Florida. Hurricane Andrew was a terrible disaster but more people live in Florida now, so there’s more things to break, I guess. Fortunately, historically speaking, really catastrophic hurricanes don’t come crashing into Florida every year; the last one before Irma was Wilma, in 2005. And apparently Hurricane Jose has decided to meander off into the North Atlantic, to everyone’s current relief. But let’s suppose that one of the climate change possibilities is right and there would be more, and more vicious, hurricanes. My hypothetical is - what if Florida were hit by a hurricane as bad as Irma **every year?** Would southern Florida cease to be practically habitable? Or could this sort of thing, at some expense, be built against? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/2 "2017-09-12T13:34:13Z")
Building codes would change and construction would become much more expensive. Lots of people would move out of the area. Carpet and wood would fall out of favor on the bottom floor of residences. It’d be a total clusterfuck, but people would still live in south Florida. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/3 "2017-09-12T13:39:53Z")
It will be very expensive to hurricane proof Florida. If Irma size storms became annual events, I think large parts of Florida would start to empty. Models predict warming trends will put large parts of Florida under water and expose huge areas to storm surge, so it does not bode well for the very flat pennisula of Florida over the next 100 years. Now power can be put underground, that is a big help apparently. Buildings are already being built far better than 25 years ago when Andrew hit. But a 10’ rise in the sea will be very bad for Florida. Obligatory link to Rising Sea level map: [Surging Seas: Risk Zone Map](https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#8/26.067/-80.618?show=sovi&projections=0-RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/4 "2017-09-12T13:40:52Z")
> [@](#): > > But let’s suppose that one of the climate change possibilities is right and there would be more, and more vicious, hurricanes. My hypothetical is - what if Florida were hit by a hurricane as bad as Irma every year? Would southern Florida cease to be practically habitable? Or could this sort of thing, at some expense, be built against? I’d guess that a lot of the construction that’s been allowed in very marginal areas would either have to be ramped up wrt new very strict building codes or would become so expensive wrt even attempting to get insurance that it would be basically impossible to sustain. I’d also guess that things like federal emergency relief would be withheld in some cases for some of the construction right along the coast, perhaps after the first time it was wiped out. So, you’d get a situation where, after a large hurricane disaster the Federal government would help out but tell you, basically, that this is it for you and if you choose to rebuild it’s on you. Insurance companies would probably do something similar. So, large swaths of Florida and other coastal areas would become depopulated as folks moved inland to less risky areas. We might see whole cities that are on the coast eventually abandoned. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/5 "2017-09-12T13:48:04Z")
This is partly I think why I am seeing property all over the Midwest going up. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/6 "2017-09-12T14:32:49Z")
It’s all about cost/benefit … There is a distinct hurricane season, which ends right about the same time as things start getting _cold_ in the northern States … people will still be moving to Florida for the weather … so let’s assume the benefit is very high … Costs can be mitigated … a friend of mine on the Space Coast had more damage from Matthew (2016) than Irma (2017) … so even in an “every year” scenario, we can estimate that it would take 5 years to completely destroy all the buildings in Florida … very few people would think that it’s worth rebuilding every time, indeed for that kind of money we could buy a real nice RV and just drive our investment out of Florida at the beginning of hurricane season (when the weather warms up in the Dakotas) … the infrastructure would have to be repaired every year, but dividing the cost every year and I think plenty of people would winter over in their RV’s on what remains of dry land in Florida … Orange juice will be more expensive … We have to be careful, though, with what the commercial media is showing us … I watch several different news shows and I noticed they tend to show the same buildings damaged … I don’t want to seem like I’m downplaying how much damage there was from Irma, but when Andrew (1992) came ashore, there was 20 or so city blocks in Homestead _completely leveled_ … “well-built wood framed homes stripped off their foundations” … so when we get 25 miles away from the eye wall, we only see tropical storm strength winds for which the current buildings should be able to withstand … Three major hurricanes in 2005, two major hurricanes in 2017 … 5 in 13 years is about average for the entire USA coast line along the Atlantic … {[Cite](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml)} … now let’s imagine hurricanes making landfall in Los Angeles every year … ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2017, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/7 "2017-09-12T22:38:45Z")
The NBC reporter this morning was standing in front of a 2-story home in the Keys. The house was made of concrete and was completely intact (even the roof looked OK), but the front yard was a mess, and who knows what the first floor looked like inside. Other homes on the street also were still standing and presumably of the same material. This is where the storm made landfall as a Cat 4 storm. The Keys must have strong building codes, and I imagine those same codes can be implemented elsewhere in Florida, in areas previously unsuspecting of this sort of disaster. Even with an annual threat of Irma-like storms, I doubt people will leave Florida - after Andrew one would have thought no one would ever move there, but the population grew after that, rather than declining. As for some of the Caribbean islands like Barbuda, with no/lax building codes, it was reported that 100% of the buildings on the island are damaged or destroyed. Sure, strong buildings are not going to be cheap, but they will end-up being cheaper than a total loss every so often. And people will always want to live in the tropics. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/8 "2017-09-13T19:42:57Z")
I agree with the above 2. With what the news is showing it really doesn’t look that bad. Homes are not totally smashed which proves you CAN build a home that can survive a cat 5 hurricane. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/9 "2017-09-13T19:48:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But let’s suppose that one of the climate change possibilities is right and there would be more, and more vicious, hurricanes. Then it will prove that the Left is manufacturing hurricanes, because so-called ‘climate change’ doesn’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/10 "2017-09-13T19:56:36Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > I agree with the above 2. With what the news is showing it really doesn’t look that bad. Homes are not totally smashed which proves you CAN build a home that can survive a cat 5 hurricane. You’re right that you can, but it wasn’t a category 5 storm when it hit Florida. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/11 "2017-09-13T19:57:27Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Then it will prove that the Left is manufacturing hurricanes, because so-called ‘climate change’ doesn’t exist. Dammit, did you have to tell every one? ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/12 "2017-09-13T20:25:27Z")
Thing is humans have built[homes in some of the most in hospitable parts of the world](https://www.thrillist.com/home/most-extreme-isolated-homes-in-the-world). We design tents to withstand artic winds and to hang off a mountainside. I don’t think rebuilding will be a problem. ---
**Author:** ![drachillix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/48db29/32.png) [@drachillix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drachillix)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/13 "2017-09-13T21:02:32Z")
While visiting the phillipines I saw alot of hurricane resistant construction. In many cases it was all about building thick 12-15’ tall concrete/cinder block barriers around homes or in some cases as exterior walls… neighborhoods that looked like some kind of cross between small castles and or prisons. I could see where the US would tend to shun such asthetics unless it was much more common to see a major structural loss. If I was building a rural home in coastal Texas I might consider a similar arrangement just because I like the idea of being able to ride out a major hurricane. I could care less if it isn’t pretty on the outside. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/14 "2017-09-13T21:12:51Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But let’s suppose that one of the climate change possibilities is right and there would be more, and more vicious, hurricanes. > [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Then it will prove that the Left is manufacturing hurricanes, because so-called ‘climate change’ doesn’t exist. Except that climate change scientists are typically careful to say that Climate Change does not result in an increased number of hurricanes, even if it does result in hurricanes with increased intensity. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/15 "2017-09-13T21:19:51Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > With what the news is showing it really doesn’t look that bad. Homes are not totally smashed which proves you CAN build a home that can survive a cat 5 hurricane. Flooding will probably be a much larger proportion of the cost. People refuse to buy flooring, furnishings, etc which are water resistant. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/16 "2017-09-13T21:33:13Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It would appear Hurricane Irma will be the most expensive hurricane in the history of Florida. Hurricane Andrew was a terrible disaster but more people live in Florida now, so there’s more things to break, I guess. > > Fortunately, historically speaking, really catastrophic hurricanes don’t come crashing into Florida every year; the last one before Irma was Wilma, in 2005. And apparently Hurricane Jose has decided to meander off into the North Atlantic, to everyone’s current relief. > > But let’s suppose that one of the climate change possibilities is right and there would be more, and more vicious, hurricanes. My hypothetical is - what if Florida were hit by a hurricane as bad as Irma **every year?** Would southern Florida cease to be practically habitable? Or could this sort of thing, at some expense, be built against? It appears that Florida has been a hurricane/tropical storm/snowbird magnet for a really, really long time. People built, and rebuilt, the area now known as Florida since people first inhabited that particular peninsula/area. Because Florida is known for having mostly pleasent weather, people will still wish to live/retire there. Improved building materials, modern design and building techniques, plus better warning systems will insure that Florida will be inhabited (by human beings) come hell or highwater. I wonder if Irma or Andrew were stronger than any prehistoric storms that frequented the area? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/17 "2017-09-13T22:04:08Z")
Florida has only been attractive to large numbers of people since air conditioning became common. People don’t like hot, humid weather without the air conditioning. See the Florida population historical figures: > **[Florida | Population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida#Population)** > > The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that the population of Florida was 21,477,737 on July 1, 2019, a 14.24% increase since the 2010 United States census. The population of Florida in the 2010 census was 18,801,310. Florida was the seventh fastest-growing state in the U.S. in the 12-month period ending July 1, 2012. In 2010, the center of population of Florida was located between Fort Meade and Frostproof. The center of population has moved less than 5 miles (8 km) to the east and appr In 2010, undoc... ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2017, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/18 "2017-09-13T23:39:54Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > It appears that Florida has been a hurricane/tropical storm/snowbird magnet for a really, really long time. People built, and rebuilt, the area now known as Florida since people first inhabited that particular peninsula/area. > > Because Florida is known for having mostly pleasent weather, people will still wish to live/retire there. Improved building materials, modern design and building techniques, plus better warning systems will insure that Florida will be inhabited (by human beings) come hell or highwater. > > I wonder if Irma or Andrew were stronger than any prehistoric storms that frequented the area? I doubt it was stronger than any previous storm that hit the area. That said, the OP is positing that such a storm of such a magnitude hits every year, year after year. That hasn’t been a historical trend in the area at any point, AFAIK. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/19 "2017-09-14T13:13:37Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Flooding will probably be a much larger proportion of the cost. People refuse to buy flooring, furnishings, etc which are water resistant. I agree. Get rid of carpet and drywall and replace with brick and tile. For furniture use stuff you would normally use outside or to be on boats or decks. Put your AC in the attic. Be able to seal your electrical outlets. Can a door be made waterproof without needing one like you would see on a ship? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2017, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165/20 "2017-09-14T14:40:08Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Except that climate change scientists are typically careful to say that Climate Change does not result in an increased number of hurricanes, even if it does result in hurricanes with increased intensity. Yeah that’s great, but I’m asking a question, and hoping for an honest discussion, about the economic and human implications of a heavily populated area being struck by at least one very destructive hurricane every year. For the sake of this discussion, let’s assume it does happen, which I thought my OP stated in fairly simple terms. If we could lay off the debate about global warming that would be terrific. > [@doorhinge](#): > > It appears that Florida has been a hurricane/tropical storm/snowbird magnet for a really, really long time. People built, and rebuilt, the area now known as Florida since people first inhabited that particular peninsula/area. But no part of Florida has ever been hit by a major hurricane EVERY YEAR. REally destructive hurricanes happen to any particular spot in Florida maybe once every 15-20 years. What if it happened every year? Every single summer/fall, a storm like Irma or Andrew happens. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-irma-what-if-this-happened-every-year/796165.md?page=2)