# Hurricane Ivan Could Put New Orleans Under Water **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [August 31, 2005, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422 "2005-08-31T14:18:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/1 "2005-08-31T14:18:55Z")
Story from USA Today less than a year ago.: [http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2004-09-14-new-orleans-storm\_x.htm](http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2004-09-14-new-orleans-storm_x.htm) Change just a couple of names and you could use it today. People ask why only 80% evacuated the city this year – this is why. Nothing happened last time, so why should we have a problem now? No news reports I’ve seen mention Ivan from 2004. Or Betty from 1965. Also, this and other reports say that parts of the city are as low as 10 feet below sea level. But I am now hearing news reports that parts of the city are under 20 feet of water. How is that possible? Is Lake Ponchartrain 10 feet above sea level now? ---
**Author:** ![jackemaxton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a87d85/32.png) [@jackemaxton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackemaxton)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/2 "2005-08-31T14:24:05Z")
Well NO has a large poor population, for them evacuation isn’t spending a week in a hotel in Houston. Its sitting in a line for a day or more, then having your belongings pawed through and maybe patted down like a criminal and then anything they don’t agree with in the shelter, including legal items like beer are confiscated. You are then a virtual prisoner inside with the crowded conditions and lack of privacy. Then the toilets overflow and as we see now they are running out of potable water. No thanks I’ll take my chances with the catagory 5 hurricane. ---
**Author:** ![whiterabbit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/cab0a1/32.png) [@whiterabbit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/whiterabbit)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/3 "2005-08-31T14:28:58Z")
I just saw an older woman saying this one was nothing like Betsy, it was far worse, which it has been so far. I ran from Ivan last year. I’d have done it again if I hadn’t moved a few months ago. I guess I evacuated well ahead of time, huh? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/4 "2005-08-31T14:42:54Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > Also, this and other reports say that parts of the city are as low as 10 feet below sea level. But I am now hearing news reports that parts of the city are under 20 feet of water. How is that possible? Is Lake Ponchartrain 10 feet above sea level now? My understanding is that the western (south-blowing) eye wall dragged a huge amount of water from the lake over the levees into the NO bowl, where it remains trapped by those levees except for the breaks. The lake may be back to its accustomed sea level now, but there’s actually a \*higher \* water level south of it. I heard a brief radio interview this AM with the local Army Corps of Engineers commander, in which he said the strategy is not to complete plugging the levees until the water has drained back down to lake level, then to use pumps to finish the job. The rush of water through the breaks is enlarging them in the meanwhile. Recommended reading: John McPhee’s _The Control of Nature_. There’s a fascinating, and frightening, essay on the extreme means needed to keep New Orleans dry, and Mississippi River flowing by it, even before considering hurricane damage. The catastrophic event he stated was most likely, though, was the river breaking through the control structure upstream and diverting into the Atchafalaya basin, something it “wants” to do anyway - leaving New Orleans _dry_. The levee failures will do until another catastrophic event comes along, of course. Pre-hurricane stories I’d read were that the eastern, north-blowing eye wall was going to hit NO and blow down up to 80% of its buildings even without considering water. Maybe this isn’t that bad, but it’ll do - that much of the city is under water now and will be for quite some time, and few of the buildings will be inhabitable even after draining. I’m glad I got to visit there just once, and just feel the warmth of the people and the pervasive music and its simple joie de vivre. There will be a city there again, but it won’t be the Big Easy ever again. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2005, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/5 "2005-08-31T15:03:19Z")
I’ve read McPhee’s book (and have a tape of him reading part of it). Excellent stuff, especially for the part on the California earthquake/fire/storm/landlslide cycle. But the Atchafalaya part is more relevant now. ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/6 "2005-09-03T00:37:59Z")
[National Geographic, Oct. 2004](http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/) > [@](#): > > “The killer for Louisiana is a Category Three storm at 72 hours before landfall that becomes a Category Four at 48 hours and a Category Five at 24 hours—coming from the worst direction,” says Joe Suhayda, a retired coastal engineer at Louisiana State University who has spent 30 years studying the coast… > > The chances of such a storm hitting New Orleans in any given year are slight, but the danger is growing. Climatologists predict that powerful storms may occur more frequently this century, while rising sea level from global warming is putting low-lying coasts at greater risk. “It’s not if it will happen,” says University of New Orleans geologist Shea Penland. “It’s when.”… > > Drafted by the Corps a year ago, the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) project was initially estimated to cost up to 14 billion dollars over 30 years, almost twice as much as current efforts to save the Everglades. But the Bush Administration balked at the price tag, supporting instead a plan to spend up to two billion dollars over the next ten years to fund the most promising projects. Either way, Congress must authorize the money before work can begin. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2005, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-ivan-could-put-new-orleans-under-water/319422/7 "2005-09-03T12:41:48Z")
> [@jackemaxton](#): > > Well NO has a large poor population, for them evacuation isn’t spending a week in a hotel in Houston. My high school graduation ceremony was in New Orleans (Riverdale High, Class of '86). 20 years ago, Louisiana had the highest unemployment rate in the country and New Orleans was the highest in the state. Unemployment probably hadn’t changed much since then.