# Hurricane Patricia may be one of the strongest ever. SW Mexico threatened **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537 "2015-10-23T13:39:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/21 "2015-10-23T18:03:14Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > It went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in 24 hours. The news this morning was saying this was the strongest hurricane ever, with 200 mph SUSTAINED winds. Strongest \*recorded \*hurricane, they are careful to note, which is not the same as the strongest known. The Great Hurricane of 1780 is estimated to have had sustained wind speeds of 200 MPH or more across a wide swath of the Caribbean. (Besides demolishing every port and village in its path, it stripped all the bark off the trees on several islands, something never seen since.) But technically TGH or “San Calixto” is not a “recorded” hurricane since there are few scientific measurements. But Patricia looks to be a real monster, not using those words metaphorically. Remember, Category 5 is 157 MPH or more. This is probably what will be called a Cat 6 in near-future revisions of the wind scale. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/22 "2015-10-23T18:09:24Z")
It can’t cross all the way over Mexico and still be a cyclone, but it’s likely some bad weather will end up Texas or the Gulf. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/23 "2015-10-23T18:10:40Z")
Here is a webcam on the beach at La Manzanilla: [http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web\_cam.html](http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html) ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/24 "2015-10-23T18:13:13Z")
Not really millions of people. Puerto Vallarta has 200,000 people, Manzanillo 100,000. The fishing villages in between (likely landfall point) are around 10,000. The mountains are close to the coast, so the winds will be shut down before it gets much inland. The rain, and flooding, may reach Texas, though. Expect huge damage in a small area, and a bunch of flooding in others. Very, very impressive hurricane, but the damage will be localized due to geography and population. Much smaller hurricanes will continue to be much more costly and deadly than Patricia. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/25 "2015-10-23T18:30:59Z")
In case there is any confusion, I merged the two threads on the subject. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/26 "2015-10-23T19:06:58Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Jesus! 200 mph winds? Aren’t those the kind of wind speeds you normally only see in tornadoes? Yeah, the sustained winds are straddling the F3/F4 tornado ratings so not just a tornado but a fairly strong one at that. Keep in mind - a tornado is only over a particular location for a very short period of time, a minute or two at most. Hurricane winds last for _hours_. Where this monster comes ashore it’s going to look like God used a sqeegee on the ground. The storm surges aren’t going to help, either. > [@The Great Sun Jester](#): > > The sat maps make it look about as big as, well, Mexico. This is gonna be _so_ messy. Given its size, is there much chance of it crossing Mexico and entering the Gulf? Or is it most likely just going to bump northward until it wrings itself out? They’re predicting Texas will get at least 7-12 inches of rain out of what’s left by the time it reaches that state. It won’t be a Cat 5 hurricane at that point but it will still be a major and dangerous storm. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/27 "2015-10-23T19:14:12Z")
> [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > Here is a webcam on the beach at La Manzanilla: > > [http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web\_cam.html](http://www.lamanzanilla.info/web_cam.html) I’ve had that up for a while now. In the last 30 minutes the winds have really picked up and the water is 30 feet higher up the beach. It’ll be hitting that fenced in bar (or whatever it is) before you know it. It’s lapping up on those railroad ties already. ---
**Author:** ![Antinor01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecae2f/32.png) [@Antinor01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antinor01)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/28 "2015-10-23T19:21:37Z")
We vacation there every year, actually was supposed to fly down on the 31st. Aside from my disappointment I really feel for the people there. Over the year we’ve gotten to know a number of the locals and ex-pats in PV. I can only hope the destruction isn’t too bad. It might sound trite but there are lot of great people there. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/29 "2015-10-23T19:26:23Z")
I think the property damage will be massive, but at this point I don’t give a damn about the property, I want to hear the people are OK because this isn’t something you’re going to survive without some pretty incredible shelter, or evacuating. Sure, property loss is financially and emotionally devastating, but you can replace “stuff”. Right now I hope priority it given to keeping people safe. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/30 "2015-10-23T19:28:22Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I’ve had that up for a while now. In the last 30 minutes the winds have really picked up and the water is 30 feet higher up the beach. It’ll be hitting that fenced in bar (or whatever it is) before you know it. It’s lapping up on those railroad ties already. Wind’s definitely picking up now. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/31 "2015-10-23T19:33:09Z")
God help the poor birds and animals. Perhaps some birds may flee away in time but the animals both tame and wild cannot. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/32 "2015-10-23T19:39:07Z")
Any references to suggest the type/extent of damage possible/likely? I’m not familiar with the topography - I assume it is not like NO which is essentially below sea-level, or South Padre/Brownsville. Just wondering how big of a storm surge might be expected, and how far inland it might travel. What are the buildings down there - how much damage would a hotel take, as opposed to locals’ residences? Are population centers situated where mudslides will be catastrophic. I guess we’ll find out soon enough. When ever I think living in the upper Midwest is boring, this kinda thing makes me think boring ain’t all that bad! ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/33 "2015-10-23T19:51:43Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Any references to suggest the type/extent of damage possible/likely? The sustained winds are now equivalent to that found in an EF5 tornado. As a fellow Midwesterner that might help give you a frame of reference. That sort of wind can destroy brick and cinderblock buildings, and seriously deform even steel-reinforced structures. It can launch vehicles, even train cars, into the air. > [@](#): > > I’m not familiar with the topography - I assume it is not like NO which is essentially below sea-level, or South Padre/Brownsville. Well, there’s the stuff right at sea-side, but apparently the land slopes upwards towards mountains fairly quickly. You don’t have as extensive an area of swamp/flatlands as around New Orleans. > [@](#): > > Just wondering how big of a storm surge might be expected, and how far inland it might travel. I’m hearing estimates of storm surges 20-30 feet. How far inland? Not sure, a lot depends on topography. Some of it could also be channeled into valleys and low-lying areas, even mountain passes so the answer it probably complicated. > [@](#): > > What are the buildings down there - how much damage would a hotel take, as opposed to locals’ residences? Winds of that speed can deform even a modern, steel-framed skyscraper. That’s from EF5 tornadoes, which are typically over a building for a minute or two at most. The hotels and other structures will be subjected to those winds for _hours_. When the weather guys say “catastrophic” that’s what they mean, it’s not hyperbole. > [@](#): > > Are population centers situated where mudslides will be catastrophic. There is considerable worry that around the Colima (sp?) volcano recent ashfalls will combine with this storm to generate massive mudslides. I think I heard something about the Mexican government trying to evacuate the areas most at risk. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/34 "2015-10-23T20:05:41Z")
Thanks for the detailed response. The whole tornado thing is what I’m really trying to get my head around. I mean, I’m very used to the pics of the total destruction from tornadoes, but the idea of translating that to a hurricane-sized path for sustained periods is beyond my comprehension. And w/ 200 MPH winds, it will take considerably more than “run up a hill to wait out the storm surge.” ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/35 "2015-10-23T20:23:01Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I guess we’ll find out soon enough. When ever I think living in the upper Midwest is boring, this kinda thing makes me think boring ain’t all that bad! Yeah. SE Michigan might not be the most exciting place on the planet, but we generally don’t have to deal with hurricanes, earthquakes, chronic droughts, or other assorted natural disasters. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/36 "2015-10-23T20:25:55Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Wind’s definitely picking up now. Right now there’s some idiot standing at the railing watching the hurricane come in. I hope he has enough sense to leave _soon._ Otherwise, we can be sure of at least 1 fatality. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/37 "2015-10-23T20:26:42Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I’ve had that up for a while now. In the last 30 minutes the winds have really picked up and the water is 30 feet higher up the beach. It’ll be hitting that fenced in bar (or whatever it is) before you know it. It’s lapping up on those railroad ties already. Um…what the fuck is that guy doing out on the deck? ETA…correction…guys. I know that’s a little south of where the eye will make landfall, but aren’t they still in for a world of hurt? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/38 "2015-10-23T20:34:40Z")
> [@Greg\_Charles](#): > > Keep us posted on this. From what I’ve read this morning, they’re almost certainly being evacuated. His sister says that they are indeed being evacuated. Haven’t heard directly from him since this morning; I’m assuming it’s because it’s get outa Dodge time. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/39 "2015-10-23T20:35:02Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > Right now there’s some idiot standing at the railing watching the hurricane come in. I hope he has enough sense to leave _soon._ Otherwise, we can be sure of at least 1 fatality. Ninja’d! Didja notice one of the other guys who came out took a big long swig of something. Might as well be hammered! It just got quite a bit more intense. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537/40 "2015-10-23T20:56:15Z")
Ron White: It’s not THAT the wind is blowing, it’s WHAT the wind is blowing. Six pack abs won’t stop a rebar. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-patricia-may-be-one-of-the-strongest-ever-sw-mexico-threatened/735537.md?page=3)