# Hurricane Sandy: Potential Catastrophic NorEaster Brewing in the Carribean \[edited title\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [October 24, 2012, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766 "2012-10-24T22:11:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/1 "2012-10-24T22:11:11Z")
Late season Hurricane Sandy hit Jamaica today with 80 mph winds and heavy rain. After being predicted to move north and east out to sea, the models have all shifted and now predict a potential “Perfect Storm” to hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and Canadian Maritimes early next week. The “Perfect Storm” characterization is apt for a number of reasons - it’s a very large storm in terms of size and intensity, the waters in the area are 5°F warmer than average, the trees still have their leaves on them so winds and snow in higher elevations could cause them to topple, and finally it coincides with the full moon, which means tides will be at their highest, and coastal flooding is likely. These things are tough to predict and it could still spin out to sea, but it is more likely than not to hit the coast. I’d gas up the generators if I lived in D.C. or north. > **[Severe storm threat growing for Northeast early next week](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/mega-storm-threat-growing-for-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-early-next-week-from-sandy/2012/10/24/0b7f1148-1e06-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)** > > There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along... ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/2 "2012-10-24T22:15:46Z")
Sonofabitch. I hate driving in the rain. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/3 "2012-10-24T22:22:38Z")
I expect to be watching from a safe distance, but maybe I’d better stock up on some firewood just in case. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/4 "2012-10-25T01:26:15Z")
The Washington Post is [saying](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-a-hurricane-on-approach-to-jamaica-odds-of-east-coast-impact-grow/2012/10/24/6c35755a-1de7-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html?wprss=rss_weather_latest) that the odds of landfall have risen. Weather [blogger](http://pjmedia.com/weathernerd/2012/10/24/sandy-now-a-hurricane-and-a-serious-u-s-threat/) Brendan Loy also thinks this is a serious threat, and he points out that the storm may also dump heavy snow along its back side, over the Appalachians. Loy has an interesting discussion of the possible consequences for the election of heavy snow and widespread power outages in the many swing states that are going to be in Sandy’s path. (If you haven’t heard of him, Loy accurately interpreted the approach of Hurricane Katrina and its consequences for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast several days before landfall. He has a sharp track record, and he’s not a needless alarmist). ---
**Author:** ![IvoryTowerDenizen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ivorytowerdenizen/32/17937_2.png) [@IvoryTowerDenizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IvoryTowerDenizen)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/5 "2012-10-25T01:36:46Z")
Holy cow. Last year’s Halloween storm left us without power for almost 10 days and my campus was closed for a week. Halloween was cancelled! That was in CT. Now I live on Long Island right on the coast. Oy. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_is\_the\_new\_Analog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a88e4f/32.png) [@Digital\_is\_the\_new\_Analog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_is_the_new_Analog)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/6 "2012-10-25T03:26:45Z")
I was surprised to get home this evening and find myself in a Tropical Storm Warning. It’s not going to do much to my area, but still. It was really windy out by the beach this evening, and it’s going to get worse the next two days. And it’ll be nothing compared to what happens where the storm actually goes. -D/a ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/7 "2012-10-25T20:12:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Both private and federal meteorologists are calling this a storm that will likely go down in the history books. > > “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting,” Cisco said. > > It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. > > Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn’t hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year’s Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast. > > “The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I’m thinking a billion,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. “Yeah, it will be worse.” [http://bigstory.ap.org/article/hybrid-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast](http://bigstory.ap.org/article/hybrid-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast) ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/8 "2012-10-25T20:45:16Z")
I hope this isn’t going to affect us near the Great Lakes. ---
**Author:** ![lazybratsche](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ba8739/32.png) [@lazybratsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lazybratsche)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/9 "2012-10-25T21:06:58Z")
> [@IvoryTowerDenizen](#): > > Holy cow. Last year’s Halloween storm left us without power for almost 10 days and my campus was closed for a week. Halloween was cancelled! That was in CT. > > Now I live on Long Island right on the coast. Oy. Wait, there was a storm last halloween? I’m in RI and I don’t even remember that at all. But I do remember Irene hitting the day after moving here :smack:. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/10 "2012-10-25T21:09:27Z")
> [@olivesmarch4th](#): > > Sonofabitch. I hate driving in the rain. If you’re in the path of this one, that’ll be the least of your worries. > [@Sunspace](#): > > I hope this isn’t going to affect us near the Great Lakes. Other than pulling down some cold air down from Canada, you won’t be affected at all. Forecasters expected the mountains of eastern Cuba to knock Sandy down to a tropical storm today, but it stayed intact and actually strengthened to a Cat 2 today, which absolutely nobody predicted. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/11 "2012-10-25T21:14:57Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > I hope this isn’t going to affect us near the Great Lakes. From the maps, it looks like Erie and Ontario could be affected (if it makes landfall at all), but not Michigan, Huron and Superior. I’m hunkering down on the western shore of The Mich. As long as we don’t get 10 ft waves on top of a 10 ft seche, I’m OK. ---
**Author:** ![billfish678](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/12 "2012-10-25T21:27:43Z")
I reminded of years ago when our company was bringing in job candidates. We had this young lady from up north who knew everthing about everything. Sounded good on paper but damn was she obnoxious. She even refused to shake any of the technicians hands and acted like they weren’t even there! Anyway, at one point she makes fun of all us stupid southerners and how hurricanes are no big deal but on the OTOH a noreaster is a REAL storm donchaknow. My boss, a transplanted yankee, pointed out that he had been in BOTH kind of storms and a hurricance was no laughing matter. That factoid didn’t even slow her down on her hurricane rant. But the best part was a line from one of our techs (also a transplant) who was tired of her shit. He said “its one thing to look out your kitchen window and see six feet of snow. Its another to look out and see six feet of water” 🙂 That finally shut her up. Story over. Yeah, noreasters suck too! Good luck up there guys and gals and be safe! ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/13 "2012-10-25T21:30:14Z")
> [@lazybratsche](#): > > Wait, there was a storm last halloween? I’m in RI and I don’t even remember that at all. But I do remember Irene hitting the day after moving here :smack:. I don’t remember one either. We don’t get hit hard here. Sometime in the late 90s there was a hurricane reported on the way. It turned out to be a warm breeze. But don’t try to find bread, milk, or toilet paper at the grocery store if there’s a report of bad weather. They’ll never forget the blizzard of 78 here. ETA: Now I’m recalling a storm that passed over LI last year and skipped us entirely. Not a hurricane though. Maybe that was it. ---
**Author:** ![JackieLikesVariety](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackielikesvariety/32/296_2.png) [@JackieLikesVariety](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JackieLikesVariety)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/14 "2012-10-25T21:32:50Z")
it’s times like these I miss having cable TV, but only for the Weather Channel. FYI if you are ever looking for a good read, [The Perfect Storm](http://www.amazon.com/Perfect-Storm-True-Story-Against/dp/B003F76JCI/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1351200605&sr=1-1&keywords=the+perfect+storm) is it. (ignore all the people stuff put in to make it interesting - the best stuff is description of waves, how boats sink, rescue diver training, and so on) hijack over ---
**Author:** ![IvoryTowerDenizen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ivorytowerdenizen/32/17937_2.png) [@IvoryTowerDenizen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IvoryTowerDenizen)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/15 "2012-10-25T21:47:32Z")
> [@lazybratsche](#): > > Wait, there was a storm last halloween? I’m in RI and I don’t even remember that at all. But I do remember Irene hitting the day after moving here :smack:. Huge snow fall and with the leaves on the trees still they collapsed under the weight. People were out of power for over a week and half. It was awful. I had faculty showering at shelters before coming in for class. > **[Storm Leaves More Than 2 Million Without Power (Published 2011)](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/31/us/storm-leaves-more-than-2-million-without-power.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)** > > At least 2.3 million people across the Northeast found themselves without electricity after an unusual autumn storm dumped record amounts of snow. ---
**Author:** ![Astroboy14](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/df705f/32.png) [@Astroboy14](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astroboy14)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/16 "2012-10-25T23:51:24Z")
I getting out my umbrella. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/17 "2012-10-26T01:32:59Z")
> [@Astroboy14](#): > > I getting out my umbrella. It could be a long night. I’m stocking up on rubbers. ---
**Author:** ![Minnie\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4bbf92/32.png) [@Minnie\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Minnie_Luna)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/18 "2012-10-26T14:43:49Z")
I am in the Philly burbs. Irene didn’t do a lot of damage to our house or neighborhood, but it really was a scary storm. We live in a hilly suburb surrounded by mature trees. Our house is newer with large windows in every single room. The wind whipping around and swaying trees was freaking us out. We panicked a little during the height of the storm and thought we might want to leave and go to my in-laws place. We ended up staying, we just took us and all the pets down to the basement and holed up there. We were without power for only 12 hours, we had no flooding issues. My friend a town away had massive flooding in her just remodeled basement. IIRC, New England was much harder hit than we were. This time I plan on being prepared and having a bag packed and ready to go with all the stuff we might need. My panic last time was not so much about what I and my husband needed, but gathering vaccination records and supplies for the animals. The last October snowfall for us ended up just being an inconvenience, no damage. I was house-sitting for a friend and took lots of pictures of her dog rolling around in the snow. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/19 "2012-10-26T18:33:34Z")
I live a couple of blocks from the beach in NJ. We’ve dodged some bullets recently. The big hurricane that wasn’t last year and the derecho this summer. Our lights flickered but never went out for more than 30 seconds in either case. Just down the street people were w/o power for a few days. We rode out the hurricane at home and the only time of concern was when at 2:00 am the news reported a tornado a couple of miles away. I’ve seen worse nor’easters. The derecho was much scarier. I’d hate to encounter a tornado at night after seeing winds around “only” 75 mph. Creepy. ---
**Author:** ![Antigen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/848f3c/32.png) [@Antigen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antigen)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766/20 "2012-10-26T18:43:02Z")
I am trying not to get too discouraged ahead of the storm, but I know that if it comes within sneezing distance of the DC area, I’ll probably be without power for a week. Irene dropped a tree on the house and power lines and we had no power for 6 days. BGE had a big meeting with our community association and promised to trim trees and look into “smart meters” so they’d know who still needed repairs. We never saw them. Then the derecho took down a bunch of neighborhood trees and left us without power for 7 days. BGE basically told us that’s life, and we should get generators. Assholes. Last I heard, the county and state were looking into BGE’s response, because they did a seriously piss-poor job organizing the repair efforts. I’ll be trying to eat as much freezer food as possible this weekend, but if the power’s out more than a couple of days I’ll have to start begging friends for extra fridge/freezer space if their power’s on. Candles and flashlights are ready. Wine and board games are ready. I’ve got water, easy-to-eat food, and all my prescriptions refilled. Car’s full of gas, I have cash on hand, and I’m picking up ice for coolers on the way home so I can keep them in the second freezer till they’re needed. At least it’s a reasonable temperature outside and we shouldn’t need to worry about heating. Keeping my fingers crossed that it blows out to sea… but I’m not optimistic. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hurricane-sandy-potential-catastrophic-noreaster-brewing-in-the-carribean-edited-title/638766.md?page=2)