# Hypothetical: evidence of UFOs **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 14, 2017, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578 "2017-05-14T06:10:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/41 "2017-05-15T13:28:53Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > People say this a lot, but I think it is another Science Fiction fantasy. Many technologies develop in a sigmoid pattern–a long period of very slow change followed by a short period of very fast change followed by a long period of very slow change. In the 20th and early 21st century we have been in the fast change phase of many technologies, but those fast changes won’t last forever for us, and they wouldn’t last forever for alien species. > > One example is computers, gong from vacuum tubes to discrete transistors to integrated circuits–then integrated circuits going from features measuring 3000 nanometers in 1977 to 10 nanometers in 2017. But you aren’t going to see chips with features 0.033 nanometers across 40 years from now or 400 years from now or 40,000 years from now or 4 million years from now–we are right now near the limit of how good portable computing is going to get, and “millions of years” more advanced aliens won’t have much better computing technology than “hundreds of years” more advanced aliens, and possibly even “dozens of years” more advance ones. > > The same can be said about all other possible technologies–there is only so much strength, or hardness, or energy density, or any other useful feature that can be squeezed out of matter, and once the material sciences in that area mature there will few to any significant improvements made for the rest of ever. And, like with computer technology, we are probably a heck of a lot closer to the end of technological growth today than we are to the beginning with many areas of material science. I agree with everything you’ve said, but still maintain the millions of years equivalent is the more likely scenario. Firstly, obviously we have the fact that the universe is approximately 14 billion years old. So even if things like a 3rd generation star are a requirement (and it may not be), as far as we know the window of opportunity for life is still 8 or 9 billions of years wide. All of human history is a fraction of a blink of an eye on such timescales. So really it comes down to what the limits of knowledge and technology are. Maybe we’re close right now, so even a species millions of years ahead of us would be technologically not far ahead. But I doubt that very much. Many of the fields where we know the most are we surest that our knowledge is incomplete – fundamental physics, cosmology etc. And these are the fields that will have significant implications on how a species may travel through space and interact with us. My own field of neuroscience…we know for a fact we’re complete newbs in this area with our understanding of many aspects of consciousness still essentially “It happens in the brain…somehow”. Imagine us interacting with a species with a deep understanding of all such phenomena. Forget merely influencing us, they would likely be able to blow open our perception of the world in ways we can’t even conceive of. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/42 "2017-05-15T13:48:47Z")
As others have said, just some evidence. Not something that can’t be explained, there’s plenty of terrestrial phenomena that can’t be explained. Something that can be explained and the explanation strongly indicates alien origin. ---
**Author:** ![Not\_Carlson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/bc79bd/32.png) [@Not\_Carlson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Not_Carlson)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/43 "2017-05-15T13:54:08Z")
Any of the situations described by the OP would pique my interest, and I’d really love to believe, but I’d have to remain very skeptical in all until seeing some very clear evidence repeatedly tested over time. I think there have been world leaders in the past who have made dubious claims of alien encounters,\* so I’d need more than a press-conference announcement to believe that Klaatu was among us. \*(Didn’t Boris Yeltsin once make such a claim? I know Jimmy Carter did.) I wouldn’t believe a trusted friend or family member’s word alone, but I might be concerned for their mental well-being. As for a personal close encounter, I’d probably doubt my own sanity, or wonder if I was being pranked. As for an announcement from a respected scientist, it would depend on that scientist’s field of expertise and the nature of the evidence presented. I’d be super excited to see the evidence, but even scientists are prone to human error. > [@anomalous1](#): > > All it took me to believe was just thinking, out of all of the sightings on earth, could one really be expected to believe every one was a lie, hoax or misinterpretation? Doesn’t compute well in my head. Same goes with the old analogy about if one does think if there are more stars with planets orbiting them than grains of sand on earth, we are the only ones? It just doesn’t make sense. I suppose I can see the view of another person who believes the opposite, but as I said, does not compute. As others have pointed out, the idea that the supposedly large number of reported encounters should be cause enough for belief is fundamentally flawed. We know, for certainty, that some of those claims have actually been hoaxes, and we can determine with relative certainty that some can be attributed to misinterpretation of either natural phenomena or man-made devices. We can also speculate, on reasonable grounds, that some are likely to be the result of hallucination or delusion or some other human foible. These are things we can confidently take as evidence to counter claims of alien/UFO sightings, based on our understanding of the world and human nature. On the other hand, the likelihood that in the vastness of time and space an intelligent species has managed to reach us and yet insists on playing coy, somehow avoiding the detecting technology of the experts while buzzing the occasional station wagon on lonely highways, is slimmer than a Pringles chip. That’s not to say that intelligent life isn’t out there. I take it as a statistical certainty that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, and a statistical impossibility that we will ever meet it. > [@Mijin](#): > > > [@TokyoBayer](#): > > > > My understanding is that the distances are too far, so I believe that while intelligent life likely exists somewhere in the universe, we aren’t going to get visited here on Earth. > > Too far for what? There has been plenty of time to travel the entire galaxy many times over. Not to say it’s easy or practical to do so, but “too far” in itself is wrong. I think “too far” a fair summary of a major part of the problem. The vastness of space precludes the likelihood of anything visiting us from another star system. But the other part of the problem is the vastness of time. If you think about the relative brevity of our species’ existence, or even the existence of life on this small planet in the mind-boggling scale of time from the universe’s beginning until now, it is vanishingly unlikely that our timeline would coincide with that of a more advanced extraterrestrial civilization that just happens to have perfected interstellar travel in time to pay us a visit before our brief candle flickers out. The YouTube channel \*Kurzgesagt \*has some fascinating and rather entertaining summaries of why it is extremely improbable (and possibly undesirable) for us to ever encounter intelligent alien life. I highly recommend these for anyone who hasn’t yet watched them. [The Fermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhhvQGsMEc)(Part 1) [The Fermi Paradox II — Solutions and Ideas – Where Are All The Aliens? Part 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fQkVqno-uI) [Why Earth Is A Prison and How To Escape It](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVMZxH1TIIQ) [How Far Can We Go? Limits of Humanity.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL4yYHdDSWs) ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/44 "2017-05-15T13:57:11Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > But I doubt that very much. Many of the fields where we know the most are we surest that our knowledge is incomplete – fundamental physics, cosmology etc. And these are the fields that will have significant implications on how a species may travel through space and interact with us. I agree that there are gaps in our knowledge of physics and cosmology–but I personally don’t think that those gaps are big enough to hide much magic in. ---
**Author:** ![Sir\_T-Cups](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ed655f/32.png) [@Sir\_T-Cups](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sir_T-Cups)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/45 "2017-05-15T13:57:30Z")
I’ll never forget a line in some Cracked article talking about aliens. I want to say the article was about how aliens aren’t what you think they are, or that the reality is much different than fiction, or something like that. The writer said “If aliens have the ability to travel these millions of light years’ distance, they would be so far advanced from us that they wouldn’t even bother with us. They would want no more contact with us, and pay no more attention to us, than we do with bugs on Earth.” ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/46 "2017-05-15T13:59:16Z")
> [@Sir\_T-Cups](#): > > The writer said “If aliens have the ability to travel these millions of light years’ distance, they would be so far advanced from us that they wouldn’t even bother with us. They would want no more contact with us, and pay no more attention to us, than we do with bugs on Earth.” I’m not thrilled with the idea of aliens treating us the same way we treat bugs. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/47 "2017-05-15T13:59:43Z")
Here’s the right way to approach any extraordinary claim (something supernatural, UFOs, psychic ability, and the like), in my opinion: As with any claim of extraordinary events, there are a few possibilities: 1. Those making the claim are lying (hoax). 2. Those making the claim are not lying, but are mistaken (hallucination, etc.) or deceived. 3. Those making the claim are not lying, but the phenomenon has a natural explanation. 4. Those making the claim are not lying and the phenomenon is real. In any randomly selected extraordinary claim, it’s reasonable to assume that 1, 2, or 3 are far, far more likely than 4. This goes even when you yourself are the witness – you know if you’re lying or not, but you may have been deceived by a hoax, you may have hallucinated it, or you may have witnessed a natural occurrence that you mistook for something supernatural or alien. In general, for any given claim, there are many other explanations that seem far, far more likely than “aliens visited Earth”. It doesn’t 100% rule out the possibility, but I think that’s the right way to approach this. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/48 "2017-05-15T14:27:59Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > If this alien is truly alien, how likely are pix of any naked alien based on a silicon life-form going to excite _you?_ Rule 34 says it’s practically certain. > [@](#): > > Some possibilities: > The classic: a UFO lands on the White House lawn. That would do it. > [@](#): > > You personally see a UFO/alien up close and personal; you can tell that you are seeing something not of this earth. That would do it. Is the anal probe mandatory? > [@](#): > > Likewise. > Somebody that you trust completely tells you that he saw one, and can give details. That might do it - I would need to hear the details. > [@](#): > > The leader of a major nation holds a press conference, and announces that his nation’s government holds evidence that aliens have been visiting us. Assuming it isn’t the leader of North Korea, that might do it. Still need to see the details. > [@](#): > > A well-known, respected scientist announces that he has credible evidence. Same answer, but let’s see the evidence. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Not\_Carlson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/bc79bd/32.png) [@Not\_Carlson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Not_Carlson)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/49 "2017-05-15T15:19:41Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > > [@Musicat](#): > > > > If this alien is truly alien, how likely are pix of any naked alien based on a silicon life-form going to excite _you?_ > > Rule 34 says it’s practically certain. > . . . > That would do it. > . . . > That would do it. Is the anal probe mandatory? > . . . > That might do it - I would need to hear the details. > . . . > Assuming it isn’t the leader of North Korea, that might do it. Still need to see the details. > . . . I see you have broad tastes. 😉 > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As with any claim of extraordinary events, there are a few possibilities: > > 1. Those making the claim are lying (hoax). > 2. Those making the claim are not lying, but are mistaken (hallucination, etc.) or deceived. > 3. Those making the claim are not lying, but the phenomenon has a natural explanation. > 4. Those making the claim are not lying and the phenomenon is real. > > In any randomly selected extraordinary claim, it’s reasonable to assume that 1, 2, or 3 are far, far more likely than 4. Quite so. And yet so many people leap right to number 4 without the slightest consideration of 1 through 3. Or consider that 1 and 4 are the only two possibilities. This is the kind of thing that bugs me when I turn on the Discovery channel and find some paranormal/alien discovery BS complete with eerie music, shaky cameras and earnest eyewitnesses being interviewed in darkened studios. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/50 "2017-05-15T16:03:23Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > I agree that there are gaps in our knowledge of physics and cosmology–but I personally don’t think that those gaps are big enough to hide much magic in. I also don’t think there’ll be magic; though much of their technology may look that way to us. I certainly wasn’t arguing from a “What the bleep do we know” perspective, where we can just jettison everything we know about the universe. But technologically I think there is a lot of leeway even if our knowledge of physics is close to complete\*. At the least let’s agree on this: there could be no “war” between humans and ETs. If, hypothetically, they’re big on genocide, they could probably wipe us out before we were even aware that they exist. It wouldn’t make for a good movie, but it’s much more plausible. - And if I were a betting man, I’d bet heavily against the proposition that our knowledge of physics is close to complete. Yes, the predictive power of our models is tremendous. But _within my lifetime_ the terms dark matter and dark energy have been coined. Maybe I’m fortunate enough to be born as humanity turns over the last page of our physics book. But I think it’s more likely that this is just another page – indeed the start of a new chapter. And that’s just physics. In many other fields the _known_ unknowns are huge. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/51 "2017-05-15T16:19:07Z")
If Hillary was president, there would be a lot more to go on. As a devout believer in UFOs and Aliens she corresponded with other believers and promised them to open up all classified records dealing with this sort of stuff. Sadly, the present incumbent is uninterested in Unsolved Mysteries of the Great Encounters with the Unknown. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/52 "2017-05-15T16:23:38Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > If Hillary was president, there would be a lot more to go on. Bupkus x 1000 is still bupkis. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/53 "2017-05-15T16:45:54Z")
Yeah, but when he was governor Bill used to take long walks alone in the Arkansas woods at night, and he told her he was attempting communication with unknown strange. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/54 "2017-05-15T16:53:34Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > Yeah, but when he was governor Bill used to take long walks alone in the Arkansas woods at night, and he told her he was attempting communication with unknown strange. My apologies for taking your posts for anything other than anti-Clinton trash talk. ---
**Author:** ![Sir\_T-Cups](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ed655f/32.png) [@Sir\_T-Cups](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sir_T-Cups)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/55 "2017-05-15T18:04:10Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’m not thrilled with the idea of aliens treating us the same way we treat bugs. We treat bugs so badly because they’re pests/when they’re in our homes/etc. Think of it less like that and more like this. You go on a vacation, you’re walking down the sidewalk and next to you is a blade of grass. What do you do? Just walk past it. Who cares. It’s a friggin blade of grass. ---
**Author:** ![DrFidelius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drfidelius/32/3447_2.png) [@DrFidelius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrFidelius)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/56 "2017-05-15T18:49:52Z")
> [@Sir\_T-Cups](#): > > We treat bugs so badly because they’re pests/when they’re in our homes/etc. > > Think of it less like that and more like this. > > You go on a vacation, you’re walking down the sidewalk and next to you is a blade of grass. What do you do? Just walk past it. Who cares. It’s a friggin blade of grass. In that analogy, Great Cthulhu is a sheep, who devours thousands of blades of grass but holds no animosity towards any of them. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2017, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/57 "2017-05-15T19:41:54Z")
If there were as many assumed sightings of UFO’s today as there were claimed to be in the 70’s and 80’s (as reported by grocery store mags), I would say that claims extraterrestrial visits to earth are FALSE. For the sheer reason that , the overwhelming majority of earth’s population is equipped at all times with a pretty damn good still and video camera to catch those ET siting’s. If every single confrontational encounter on an airline over a 2 week period is recorded and posted to YouTube, then I’m sure that every legit UFO encounter would be posted there as well. Same reason there is no Bigfoot. ---
**Author:** ![Mikeisskeptical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c0e974/32.png) [@Mikeisskeptical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mikeisskeptical)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2017, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/58 "2017-05-16T00:48:49Z")
> [@anomalous1](#): > > …my reasoning being odd or awful is just that, reasoning. No it isn’t. > [@anomalous1](#): > > I am trying to justify my own personal belief in UFO’s. Yes you are. > [@anomalous1](#): > > The Santa Claus bit doesn’t apply here… Yes it does. Reasoning; the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way. ---
**Author:** ![DrFidelius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drfidelius/32/3447_2.png) [@DrFidelius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrFidelius)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2017, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/59 "2017-05-16T00:58:04Z")
There is a difference between reasoning and rationalizing . ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2017, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578/60 "2017-05-16T03:27:58Z")
Hold on…I don’t think you can compare belief in UFO’s to Santa Claus AT ALL. No one but loonies and children claim Santa is real or that they have seen him. Whereas with UFO’s you can go to Youtube right now and view all manner of crazy shit that moves through sky as no manner of craft should be able to move\*. NOW…combine that with any number of personal anecdotes (including friends you trust)…shit astronauts have reported seeing, and then just a ‘gut feeling’ And add all that up and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say, “I believe either that we are being observed by alien life, or that our military has some crazy-ass inertia dampening technology at their fingertips” That is of course accounting for filtering out hoaxes, natural phenomena…etc…Personally I file UFO’s under “I woudn’t be surprised in the least” And i fully accept the rights of people to demand a more stringent litmus test than what I’ve listed. On a related note…have you ever asked anyone if they believe in God and they literally sit there and go “Mmmmmmm” before answering? As if they’re deciding right then and there depending on how they feel that moment? My dad would do that. On the topic of the Devil though he was very swift to laugh and go “No.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-evidence-of-ufos/786578.md?page=4)