# Hypothetical: Trump ineligible, who emerges? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [December 21, 2023, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954 "2023-12-21T22:54:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/1 "2023-12-21T22:54:18Z")
While I personally think it unlikely, suppose SCOTUS decides that Trump is ineligible to be president due to the whole insurrection thing. I think the current people, except DeSantis, with their hat in the ring are not being very serious about it. They’re doing it for name recognition, future appointments, and a possible future run (or as a grift in Vivek’s case). But with Trump out of the picture, there will be a real race for the ring. Who do you think emerges as the next candidate? DeSantis is second in the current race except as above it isn’t really a race. He lacks charisma, so I can see others easily overtaking him. But he has the same kind of hate-filled policies that MAGA loves so maybe he is the successor. Any thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/2 "2023-12-21T23:02:27Z")
I think it’d be Haley. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/3 "2023-12-21T23:14:22Z")
Total chaos. Trump would attempt to run third party, or a write-in campaign, and demand all the other Republicans back him up in this effort. If that didn’t work Trump would call for mass protests and maybe worse. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/4 "2023-12-21T23:14:58Z")
She seems most likely. But also… > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Total chaos. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/5 "2023-12-21T23:20:03Z")
I think you are correct. Haley would probably be the one on the ballot and Trump would want a write-in campaign. Although, I am unsure if the RNC can change ballots. For the sake of argument let’s say Trump is kept off enough ballots to be unable to win the presidency even if he won all the rest (assume the courts have assented to this…it’s a done deal). But, Trump won primaries to be the front runner in all those states. So, in the states where Trump is prohibited from being on the ballot do they just go with the #2 winner in that state (and what if there was no one running against Trump in the primary)? Then, can the RNC dump him from all ballots even if he won the primaries in states that have not kicked him off the ballot because he literally could not win? I have no answer to the above. Curious how it would play out. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/6 "2023-12-21T23:29:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > or a write-in campaign, But if the Court declared him ineligible the write-ins would be void, would they not? What else can ineligible mean? IANAL, of course, just going by the normal use of the words. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Total chaos. Yes, of course, but we have that already. Just imagine he _wins_ the primaries and the Electoral College! ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/7 "2023-12-21T23:42:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Total chaos. Beg to disagree. If the Supreme Court rules that Trump cannot be on ballots nationwide, Trump would make predictably nasty statements and call for wild demonstrations. I’m afraid there might be several deaths. But looting will be negligible. So, I disagree on chaos. He can’t run third party — too many deadlines are past. As for a write-in campaign, this is a Democratic dream that won’t happen. It would mildly be in Trump’s interest that the GOP ticket win, and he is not as dumb as some think. The only reason he might not endorse the GOP candidate is that if the Supreme Court makes Trump a complete loser, his endorsement is worthless. I hope the nominee would be Haley, but the pessimist in me says DeSantis. Biden’s chances against a middle-aged GOP nominee are quite poor. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/8 "2023-12-21T23:45:48Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Trump would attempt to run third party What would be the point of that? He’d still be off the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/9 "2023-12-21T23:48:37Z")
With Trump out, it would be a sudden and ferocious race. I’d say Haley. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/10 "2023-12-21T23:52:28Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > > > Trump would attempt to run third party > > What would be the point of that? He’d still be off the ballot. In theory, he could be inspired by what Putin did when term-limited and have the third party go with a complete and total toady. Maybe Trump Jr. If married to a native-born American, his wife would have been a possibility. In practice, impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/11 "2023-12-21T23:53:35Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I hope the nominee would be Haley, but the pessimist in me says DeSantis. > > Biden’s chances against a middle-aged GOP nominee are quite poor. DeSantis has no chance of getting elected. > **[Ron DeSantis' descent continues, unabated by the debate and time on the trail](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-descent-continues-unabated-debate-time-trail-rcna108101)** > > At the same time, the Florida governor is racing to raise money in Texas and California. It has only gotten worse since then. > **[A weakened DeSantis returns to Florida to campaign](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/05/desantis-florida-campaign-2024-00120284)** > > The governor stopped in Tampa, where he faced questions about Trump and his viability as a candidate. > **[DeSantis won’t consider joining Trump as running mate, campaign says](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/11/22/ron-desantis-trump-running-mate)** > > DeSantis is sitting in distant second at around 13%. I mean, his campaign is practically over already. > **[Ron DeSantis wanted to change the way campaigns were funded. Then the fights...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/16/desantis-super-pac-collapse/)** > > With just weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP candidate’s bold strategy is now in tatters and its top architect has resigned. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/12 "2023-12-21T23:54:49Z")
nm. Thought Eric was the older one. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2023, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/13 "2023-12-21T23:55:00Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It would mildly be in Trump’s interest that the GOP ticket win, and he is not as dumb as some think. You underestimate just how malignantly narcissistic he is. He’ll spend the entire year flinging shit at whoever gets the nomination entirely because it isn’t him. “[Candidate], a very low-rated RINO who begged like a dog for my endorsement when running for [current office] (would not have won without me!) is a very disloyal loser who turned their back on “Donald J. Trump” after they got what they wanted. DO NOT VOTE FOR [pronoun]!” ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/14 "2023-12-22T00:07:59Z")
They might need to promise Trump a position as Secretary of State to mollify him. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/15 "2023-12-22T00:10:36Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > DeSantis has no chance of getting elected. Your links do show he has weaknesses. As many here have pointed out to me, year-before horse race polling is historically not predictive. I’ve claimed, not very persuasively, that Biden-Trump is the exception because both men are well-known to even the lowest information voters. I think DeSantis would give us a normal situation where there is a pivot to the center after the nomination is locked up, and then you would see movement in the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/16 "2023-12-22T00:32:51Z")
I can’t see how it’s anyone but DeSantis. Sure, he’s polling poorly right now, but that’s because he’s the only one who’s actually competing with Trump. And that’s also why, if Trump were decisively eliminated, he’d be the only choice. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/17 "2023-12-22T00:34:12Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > As many here have pointed out to me, year-before horse race polling is historically not predictive. And I agree completely with that assessment. Even in the links I provided you can see the polls are changing from month to month. So clearly where he is at is not going to be where he’s at later. But, the trend has been only downward for him. And I mean it when I say that his campaign is just about done. He might not even be a candidate anymore by the time they decide if Trump is eligible. > [@Chronos](#): > > Sure, he’s polling poorly right now, but that’s because he’s the only one who’s actually competing with Trump. And that’s also why, if Trump were decisively eliminated, he’d be the only choice. I will also acknowledge that if Trump _is_ out of the picture, that _could_ change things dramatically. But I also think he’d do a lot worse than Trump in an election. He’s like Trump without the followers or charisma or, well, anything that Trump has that makes him electable. I reject the idea that his age alone will allow him to beat Biden. I think he’d lose in a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/18 "2023-12-22T00:41:08Z")
John Barron, some new guy who suddenly shows up out of nowhere. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/19 "2023-12-22T00:41:37Z")
The question may be what Republican who is not currently running because of Trump will emerge as a dark horse. Someone like [Kristi Noem](https://governor.sd.gov/governor/about.aspx). ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/20 "2023-12-22T00:43:29Z")
Ginny Thomas. Ted Nugent. The list of unqualified individuals is endless. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954.md?page=2)