# Hypothetical: Trump ineligible, who emerges? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [December 21, 2023, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954 "2023-12-21T22:54:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/61 "2023-12-22T18:23:28Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > What people are saying is that it will hurt her. A lot of the enthusiasm on the right that propelled Trump into power comes from the alt right, and the Republicans court that vote. She is going to have trouble getting the same sort of enthusiasm. That would be because she is perceived as a RINO by them, not because she’s a woman or a minority. Those same people swooned over Sarah Palin. They love Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Green. > [@](#): > > Note that specifically it was said that she’d lose the bigot vote, not that all Republican voters are bigots. Well then, Kamala Harris or another woman or minority loses the bigot vote on the Democrat side as well. I mean, so long as we aren’t assuming that the Republicans are more full of bigots than the Democrats. Because given all the campus pro-Hamas nonsense, that’s going to be a hard case to make. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/62 "2023-12-22T18:25:54Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That would be because she is perceived as a RINO by them, not because she’s a woman or a minority. So then, the only reason that women and minorities are underrepresented among elected Republicans is because they are RINOs. Gotcha. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/63 "2023-12-22T18:45:27Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Those same people swooned over Sarah Palin. They love Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Green. I agree – MAGAts are equal opportunity idiot lovers. See also: Herschel Walker. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > … we aren’t assuming that the Republicans are more full of bigots than the Democrats. I, for one, do assume that. You don’t hear too many Dems saying “Jews will not replace us.” ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/64 "2023-12-22T18:50:03Z")
I never said that. I said that women and minorities are underrepresented because the Republican party doesn’t make special effort to recruit them and promote them like the Democrats do. Also, there are fewer women and minorities in the Republican party. But Republicans love it when a steong woman or minority with the right values shows up. They loved Margaret Thatcher. They loved Sarah Palin for a while. They loved Condi Rice. When Nikki Haley was at the U.N., her speeches were widely shared among Republicans. Thomas Sowell, a black economist, is one of the most popular intellectual Republicans. I have to hear a single Republican comment on Nikki Haley or Vivek’s race. Sure there are bigots in the Republican party. That’s because there are bigots everywhere. If you think they don’t exist in the Democratic party you’ve never heard a bunch of blue collar union guys yakking it up in a bar. Or apparently, heard a Harvard President speak. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/65 "2023-12-22T19:00:22Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I, for one, do assume that. You don’t hear too many Dems saying “Jews will not replace us.” No, they’re too busy waving Hamas flags and chanting “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” Jews on campuses are not hiding from right-wing mobs. The mobs in front of Jewish restaurants are not MAGA mobs. It wasn’t Republican college presidents who could not convince themselves to condemn the genocide of Jews. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/66 "2023-12-22T19:13:14Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > A lot of the enthusiasm on the right that propelled Trump into power comes from the alt right, and the Republicans court that vote. She is going to have trouble getting the same sort of enthusiasm. I agree with this. But I don’t agree that enthusiasm especially leads to victory. Biden didn’t generate a lot of enthusiasm. Going back further, they might have liked Ike, but they didn’t love him. If SCOTUS boots Trump off ballots, there will be low GOP enthusiasm for Haley because of perception she isn’t far right. But she would have a decent chance of the nomination because of the perception of electability AND because of the own-the-libs female/minority factor. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/67 "2023-12-22T19:14:40Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Sure there are bigots in the Republican party. That’s because there are bigots everywhere. If you think they don’t exist in the Democratic party you’ve never heard a bunch of blue collar union guys yakking it up in a bar. Yes, but they are more prevalent on the right than the left. Here is a poll analysis from 10 years ago, **before** the rise of the alt right in politics. It judges how Democrat and Republican voters had views of Black people and leaders. > **[Are White Republicans More Racist Than White Democrats?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-white-republicans-more-racist-than-white-democrats/)** > > The comments made by Cliven Bundy and Donald Sterling this month demonstrate that the U.S. is far from a colorblind society. And the reaction to their comments … It’s not a huge divide, admittedly, but it’s there, and that shows it isn’t new. But it has become much worse of late. > **[Perspective | Far-right extremism dominates the GOP. It didn’t start — and...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/11/08/far-right-extremism-dominates-gop-it-didnt-start-wont-end-with-trump/)** > > How a decades-long movement helped the far-right fringe gain control of the GOP. The alt right, in case you aren’t aware, is an ideology that embraces white nationalism and misogyny. There is no equivalent on the left. This is not a both sides issue. I am not saying everyone on the right is bigoted against women and minorities. But it is represented much more on that side. Yes, there are bigots on the left as well, but not as many. That’s why it’s a bigger issue for someone trying to get a Republican nomination than one trying to get a Democratic one. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/68 "2023-12-22T19:15:48Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I mean, if it’s just one state that’s not particularly significant, but I didn’t realize she was that close _anywhere_. I suspect she is getting numbers not as Nikki Haley but as not-DeSantis. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/69 "2023-12-22T20:08:39Z")
Isn’t it kind of sexist to assume that if a woman is doing well, it has to be a vote against some man? Why is it so hard to believe that Haley has gotten where she is the same way any man has? She has a sterling record of accomplishment. So here is what the polls look like, in order of when the primaries happen: Iowa: DeSantis: 19.1%, Haley15.9% New Hampshire: Haley, 25.8%, DeSantis: 7.6% South Carolina: Haley: 21.8%, DeSantis: 13.5% Nevada: DeSantis, 15%. No data on Haley. Michigan: DeSantis: 13.4%, Haley: 12.5% Within margin of error. So while DeSantis is leading in national polls, the primary season is breaking for Haley due to the strong DeSantis states coming later in the process. If DeSantis underperforms in Iowa and Haley beats him, she’s going to walk over him in the next two primaries, and by then it might be all over. In any case, Trump still wins. This is all assuming something happens to keep him from running. > **[Michigan : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/70 "2023-12-22T20:58:51Z")
Undoubtedly it would be Haley or someone who is not yet running. She already has Koch money behind her. DeSantis is all but done at this point., rapidly dropping in the polls and proving he is dull dull dull. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/71 "2023-12-22T21:09:35Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Isn’t it kind of sexist to assume that if a woman is doing well, it has to be a vote against some man? We’re talking about DeSantis here, not sure if that actually counts… He’s barely a human being. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/72 "2023-12-22T21:09:42Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > But Republicans love it when a steong woman or minority with the right values shows up. They loved Margaret Thatcher. They loved Sarah Palin for a while. They loved Condi Rice But do they elect them? Look at this chart- > **[118th Congress has a record number of women](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/01/03/118th-congress-has-a-record-number-of-women/)** > > Women make up 28% of all members of the 118th Congress, a considerable increase from where things stood even a decade ago. _Women make up a much larger share of congressional Democrats (41%) than Republicans (16%). Across both chambers, there are 109 Democratic women and 44 Republican women in the new Congress. Women account for 43% of House Democrats and 31% of Senate Democrats, compared with 16% of House Republicans and 18% of Senate Republican_ ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/73 "2023-12-22T22:13:03Z")
Well, I wouldn’t expect an even split, as Republican women may be less likely to be interested in politics than are Democratic women. We’d have to look at how many run for office and the percentage of them that get elected. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2023, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/74 "2023-12-22T23:54:47Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Democrats go out of their way to promote women and minorities in office. It’s the only reason Kamala Harris is there. Do you have any facts to support the second half of this “fact”? Or is it just a gut feeling? > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Well, I wouldn’t expect an even split, as Republican women may be less likely to be interested in politics than are Democratic women. Why do you think this is? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2023, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/75 "2023-12-23T00:18:09Z")
> [@digs](#): > > > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > > > Well, I wouldn’t expect an even split, as Republican women may be less likely to be interested in politics than are Democratic women. > > Why do you think this is? First thing to note — if Sam is correct here, and regardless of why it is — then it explains why the percent of women in the GOP House of Representatives caucus is so much lower than in the Democratic caucus, and without supposing that Republicans are unwilling to vote for conservative women. Second, I think Sam is correct about this. Third, I don’t know for sure why GOP women would be less interested in politics. But I have a hypothesis. Republican women have a higher fertility rate. And their husbands expect them to do the bulk of the child-rearing. Maybe the last sentence is also true of Democratic mothers, but with more children for longer periods, the GOP women may not have time for politics. Another hypothesis is that when GOP women find free time, they prefer church activities. Only relevance to the thread is that GOP voters would be fine with Haley should Trump be forced out, and she convinces them she is a real winger. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2023, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/76 "2023-12-23T01:11:47Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Republican women have a higher fertility rate. And their husbands expect them to do the bulk of the child-rearing. Maybe the last sentence is also true of Democratic mothers, but with more children for longer periods, the GOP women may not have time for politics. Another hypothesis is that when GOP women find free time, they prefer church activities. Ah, yes: [Kinder, Kuche, Kirche.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinder,_K%C3%BCche,_Kirche) ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2023, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/77 "2023-12-23T02:17:34Z")
Moderating: Let’s drop the thread hijack about the number of female congress persons there are and why. This thread is about who emerges as the frontrunner if Trump is declared ineligible to run. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/78 "2023-12-24T00:41:05Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > That’s something I’m wondering about. A ruling in a single state isn’t compelling on any other state, so as it stands, the other states could just ignore this, and put Trump on the ballot. > > But a SC decision would have the power to compel the other states to act, wouldn’t it? For this ruling to stand, the SC would have to find both that Trump committed the acts in question, and that the rules about ineligibility apply to him as a former president. > > At that point, how could any state argue either, “Well, he didn’t commit those acts according to us”, or “Well, that rules doesn’t apply in our state”? At this point is when the pubbies in office in select states start declaring that the federal Supreme Court had no jurisdiction because ~~those pubbies don’t like the decision~~ elections are a state issue, even for federal office. Then they’ll promptly ignore the decision. It’s like their version of the _SNIP_ (_S_mile, _N_od, _I_gnore, _P_rocede as usual), but in their case it means _S_coff, _N_egate, _I_mpede, _P_rocede as usual. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/79 "2023-12-24T01:50:39Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > At this point is when the pubbies in office in select states start declaring that the federal Supreme Court had no jurisdiction because ~~those pubbies don’t like the decision~~ elections are a state issue, even for federal office. Then they’ll promptly ignore the decision. If it is a 5-4 decision, I agree. But Roberts will work hard to make sure that doesn’t happens. And if a majority of the Republicans on SCOTUS endorse the Colorado Supreme Court, that tells me the mood among Republican elites has already shifted against Trump. Another factor is that if even a single purple state does what Colorado did (could be Michigan) GOP loyalists will see Trump as dragging down their ticket. That will concentrate their minds. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/80 "2023-12-24T02:00:52Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > At this point is when the pubbies in office in select states start declaring that the federal Supreme Court had no jurisdiction because ~~those pubbies don’t like the decision~~ elections are a state issue, even for federal office. The Supremes already ruled against that earlier this year. > **[Supreme Court denies state legislatures the unchecked power to set election...](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/27/supreme-court-rejects-independent-state-legislature-theory-00103793)** > > In a 6-3 ruling, the justices affirmed the power of state courts to review state laws governing federal elections — a decision that rejects a once-fringe legal theory pushed by Republicans. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954.md?page=5)