# Hypothetical: Trump ineligible, who emerges?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [December 21, 2023, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954 "2023-12-21T22:54:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 17\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/81 "2023-12-24T02:01:23Z")

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> [@Monty](#):
>
> At this point is when the pubbies in office in select states start declaring that the federal Supreme Court had no jurisdiction because ~~those pubbies don’t like the decision~~ elections are a state issue, even for federal office. Then they’ll promptly ignore the decision. It’s like their version of the _SNIP_ (_S_mile, _N_od, _I_gnore, _P_rocede as usual), but in their case it means _S_coff, _N_egate, _I_mpede, _P_rocede as usual.

Wouldn’t the net result be that such a state would end up certifying electoral votes for an ineligible candidate, handled in Washington the same as if they cast their votes for a 25-year-old? They can “you’re not the boss of me” the Feds as much as they want, but they’re not the ones making the final call.

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**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/82 "2023-12-24T02:03:43Z")

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Yes, it would. That is, until the shooting starts when their hero is declared the loser.

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/83 "2023-12-24T02:04:36Z")

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Yes. As a younger man I would have rolled my eyes at such a statement. Sad that it’s plausible.

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**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/84 "2023-12-24T02:07:03Z")

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The reason it’s plausible is because it already happened, just shy of three years ago. Remember the adage, “Do it once, it’s a favor; do it twice, it’s your job”? There are plenty of people supporting Trump now who will be more than happy for that to be their job. And, of course, you already know who their targets will be in reality.

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2023, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/85 "2023-12-24T02:08:15Z")

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Oh, yeah. That’s exactly what I had in mind when I said it’s plausible.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/86 "2023-12-25T02:21:27Z")

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> [@Monty](#):
>
> Yes, it would. That is, until the shooting starts when their hero is declared the loser.

You say that like that would be a reason to do anything but promptly put down the insurrections and riots, round up the ringleaders, and run another long set of Federal trials of these few hundred criminals.

It’s stupid that a couple dozen innocents will die before we stop this stupid Pirates of Penzance revolution. But if we put enough RW loonie tunes in prison where they belong, that will _encourageour les autres_ to go back to whining to their beer-soaked pals at their backyard BBQs.

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**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/87 "2023-12-25T03:16:55Z")

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You say that like you think it will only be happening at one location like the last time.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/88 "2023-12-25T03:23:07Z")

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I say that it really doesn’t matter how many insurrectionists there are nationwide. Nor how they are distributed. The police and military are vastly more capable and will promptly and decisively contain the problem.

Acting like we’re in the slightest concerned about these potential treasonous criminals is exactly how you encourage more of them to get off their comfy couches and stand around looking menacing.

Put the first few hundred or few thousand in prison and their media backers then their ignorant dangerous movement will collapse in a heap of impotent cowardice. Doing anything less simply makes them stronger.

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**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/89 "2023-12-25T05:01:01Z")

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> [@LSLGuy](#):
>
> I say that it really doesn’t matter how many insurrectionists there are nationwide. Nor how they are distributed. The police and military are vastly more capable and will promptly and decisively contain the problem.
> 
> Acting like we’re in the slightest concerned about these potential treasonous criminals is exactly how you encourage more of them to get off their comfy couches and stand around looking menacing.

Oh, I am concerned- they may well disrupt things and kill a number of people-. But their chance of doing anything effective is exactly zero. They are, by and large incompetent cowards, who can only work in a mob.

They are not gonna lead a revolution.

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**Author:** ![Beesnest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e495f1/32.png) [@Beesnest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beesnest)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/90 "2023-12-25T05:08:48Z")

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There is a greater than zero chance that they would put up someone like Kari Lake or worse Donald Jr.

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**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/91 "2023-12-25T05:38:05Z")

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> [@LSLGuy](#):
>
> I say that it really doesn’t matter how many insurrectionists there are nationwide. Nor how they are distributed. The police and military are vastly more capable and will promptly and decisively contain the problem.

And presumably Biden would call out the National Guard unlike 2020.

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**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/92 "2023-12-25T05:49:12Z")

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> [@LSLGuy](#):
>
> I say that it really doesn’t matter how many insurrectionists there are nationwide. Nor how they are distributed. The police and military are vastly more capable and will promptly and decisively contain the problem.
> 
> (SNIP)

The main problem with what you say here is you assume the police in certain areas will actually take action against insurrectionists. There were more than a few in the crowd last time. No reason I’ve seen to think they will be fewer next time.

Same for members of the military.

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**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/93 "2023-12-25T07:03:33Z")

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Eh, I’ll buck the trend for the sake of argument.

Trump falls over dead or is otherwise prevented from continuing his run and communicating (because all bets are off otherwise, even if he _couldn’t_ run legally, he’d absolutely sell out his influence to the highest bidder in terms of pardons and grift!), I think DeSantis gets the nod.

Absolutely agree that he has all the charisma of a hate filled cesspool… but for the people who now CAN’T vote Trump, that’s a pro, rather than a con. The people (and this is IMHO of course) supporting Haley are the tattered remnants of the ‘moderate’ Republicans. They cannot and will not stomach a Democrat, no matter how mild, but want something less offensive than Trump. Haley is that, yet not so tainted by the scandals that cling to, as a not random example, Christie.

Trump gone, anyone who loves Trump for being Trump isn’t going to go Christie, and Ramaswamy is right out because he isn’t the right color (speaking for Trump’s cadre of bigots), but DeSantis appears to hate all the right people, is white, male and Christian. So all the bigots, the racists, and misogynists that are part of the only-Trump crowd will (reluctantly) settle for him.

Again, the MAGA movement is about supporting people who punish whom they hate rather than any actual platform or Republican value - and DeSantis appears most able to deliver on that hate and punishment.

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**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\
**Post date:** [December 27, 2023, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/94 "2023-12-27T13:42:15Z")

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DeSantis: he sounds fake. People catch on very quickly. He does not hate sincerely, the way Trump does. It is just fake, politics.

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**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\
**Post date:** [December 27, 2023, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/95 "2023-12-27T14:03:35Z")

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His wife has been taking the microphone away from him lately. She ain’t faking it.

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**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\
**Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/96 "2024-01-21T02:23:20Z")

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I’m not sure where to post this. Vox has a timeline of Trump’s upcoming court dates, and how they interact with the Republican Primary Schedule.

> **[A calendar of Trump’s upcoming court dates — and how they could overshadow...](https://www.vox.com/trump-investigations/2024/1/17/24041580/trump-court-dates-2024-election-republican-primary)**
>
> The 2024 election season may be defined by Trump’s legal troubles.

My take: I don’t perceive game changers before Super Tuesday.

Excerpts:

Jan 22 - “Trump may testify in Carroll trial.”

Jan 23 - New Hampshire Primary

Jan 31 - Should be a civil NY decision about Trump inflating the value of his businesses by this date.

Feb 8 - Nevada Caucus and oral arguments at the Supreme Court regarding Colorado’s decision to remove Trump from the ballot.

Feb 15 - Trump attends Stormy Daniels hearing. He is accused of 34 felony counts.

Feb 24, 27: More primaries

March 5 - Super Tuesday

March 25 - Hush money case trial scheduled

May 20 - Florida classified documents case.

July 15-18 GOP convention.

tl;dr: Trump may testify in his defamation and rape case on Monday Jan 22. Trump is expected to receive multi-million dollar civil penalties for fraudulently inflating the stated value of his properties. He will also be barred from doing business in NY. I doubt whether that info will affect Super Tuesday too much though.

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**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\
**Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hypothetical-trump-ineligible-who-emerges/994954/97 "2024-01-21T07:06:55Z")

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> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#):
>
> May 20 - Florida classified documents case.

That will be delayed until trump is dead. He has a pet judge there. She cant do anything too crazy, she has been slapped down once, but delays can be done.

> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#):
>
> Trump may testify in his defamation and rape case on Monday Jan 22. Trump is expected to receive multi-million dollar civil penalties for fraudulently inflating the stated value of his properties. He will also be barred from doing business in NY. I doubt whether that info will affect Super Tuesday too much though.

No money might make it more difficult.

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