# I do not think humans are going to send people to Mars for a very long time. **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 6, 2011, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937 "2011-05-06T06:17:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/1 "2011-05-06T06:17:04Z")
In thinking [about the thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=607440) re who is going to Mars, given that we already know quite a bit about Mars the prospect of sending people there holds little compelling scientific purpose, and would be a hugely expensive, and somewhat pointless engineering exercise. While I realize all sorts of countries have _plans_ to do this, in real world terms I do not think we are actually going to send people to Mars for very long time. ---
**Author:** ![Washoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecae2f/32.png) [@Washoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Washoe)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/2 "2011-05-06T06:25:36Z")
Sadly, you’re probably right. I dwell on this all the time. I was seven years old when the first lunar landing occurred, and I’m not going to live long enough to see a manned expedition to Mars. Pisses me off. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/3 "2011-05-06T06:59:00Z")
I wouldn’t say we know all that much about Mars. There probably aren’t many earth-shattering discoveries to be had though. A semi-permanent base there would be awesome just to prove it can be done. Not going to happen soon. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/4 "2011-05-06T07:25:34Z")
doesn’t sound too impossible if one does in a sequence of several missions. it will require a “sling-shot” trajectory from either the earth or the moon going to and one around mars on the way back. also will likely require another winning combination of german ingenuity and american financing. ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/5 "2011-05-06T07:42:27Z")
I’ll be shocked if any manned mission happens in my lifetime (I’m 38). If it does, I’m sure I’ll be pretty old, provided I live that long, but global circumstances would have to change dramatically before anyone sees the effort, risk and expense as worth while. Perhaps if planned and executed over a number of decades, with several un-manned missions dropping off supplies, raw materials and resources, and pre-fab dwellings to one strategically placed locale. Then by the time we’re ready to send humans there, the cost would be offset by the 20-30 year timeline and would also buy us engineering time for building a vessel fit for such a journey, and perhaps by then our current propulsion technologies would improve, thereby making the trip shorter and more reasonable. Still, it’s a much bigger jump than landing on the moon, and that’s still a huge challenge, even for today. But damn, I’d love to see the day. I missed the Apollo missions by 4 years, and have always hoped, since childhood, that Mars would be the next step for humanity, and I’d be lucky enough to at least witness that. Damn! ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/6 "2011-05-06T12:24:40Z")
> [@](#): > > I wouldn’t say we know all that much about Mars. There probably aren’t many earth-shattering discoveries to be had though. Certainly there are – Mars is the only known source of Iludium Q-38 Explosive Modulators. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/7 "2011-05-06T12:43:43Z")
OK, but will people send humans to Mars? Will humans ever send themselves? If people or humans ever send either one to Mars to live, won’t they be Martians at that point? ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/8 "2011-05-06T12:54:42Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > Certainly there are – Mars is the only known source of Iludium Q-38 Explosive Modulators. There was _supposed_ to be an earth-shattering kaboom! ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/9 "2011-05-06T13:37:29Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > There was _supposed_ to be an earth-shattering kaboom! No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There’s always a boom tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/10 "2011-05-06T13:43:51Z")
The chances of anyone flying to Mars are a million to one. ---
**Author:** ![Al\_Bundy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e79b87/32.png) [@Al\_Bundy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al_Bundy)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/11 "2011-05-06T14:23:47Z")
Yes, probably not in the lifetime of the currently living. However, the expansion of knowledge is at such a level that the long term will see more than you could imagine over generations. I think humans are forced to think in terms of their own lives and become biased into believing they have seen it all. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/12 "2011-05-06T15:58:53Z")
Are there any estimates of when we could land a man on Mars and bring him back to Earth and how much money it would take, if we started in earnest today? I’d guess that it would be by far the most expensive operation of any sort ever performed. The same funding applied to, e.g., medical or energy technologies would have hugely more impact. Yet, it is amusing to note that The Greatest Living American™, Mr. George W. Bush, was an advocate of this “idea.” 😃 While also reducing NASA’s funding. 😃 😃 😃 :smack: Given current trends (Palin, Bachmann, Trump are seriously proposed for President 😕 ) America is likely to turn increasingly to crackpot stupid ideas. Historians may not even call GWB the worst President. (Not because any of #1-#42 are worse, but because America hasn’t plumbed its own depths yet.) But as its leadership becomes increasingly irrational, its economic strength will fail and such an undertaking will become increasingly impossible by the U.S.A. My prediction? Mars in the mid 22nd century, but achieved by China. If the upward trend in human technology continues. ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/13 "2011-05-06T16:11:24Z")
> [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](#): > > The chances of anyone flying to Mars are a million to one. You can’t fly to Mars, believe me, I’ve tried. Once you flap hard enough to make it out the Earth’s atmosphere, your wings melt. I think it has something to do with solar flares. ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/14 "2011-05-06T16:22:12Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > …Yet, it is amusing to note that The Greatest Living American™, Mr. George W. Bush, was an advocate of this “idea.” 😃 While also reducing NASA’s funding. 😃 😃 😃 :smack: Given current trends (Palin, Bachmann, Trump are seriously proposed for President 😕 ) America is likely to turn increasingly to crackpot stupid ideas. Historians may not even call GWB the worst President. (Not because any of #1-#42 are worse, but because America hasn’t plumbed its own depths yet.) _takes another swig of beer_ Donchoo gheddit yet?! Their planns are to relocate aamerica to the red planet so we can finally be free of them damn ghays and socialist commies. No ghays or commies or liberruls allowd! nosirree! _hic_ It’ll fuggin wurk! aand marsss will be renammed to amarsica, and called the red white aaaand blew plannnet. _downs the beer and cracks another_ ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/15 "2011-05-06T17:00:38Z")
> [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](#): > > The chances of anyone flying to Mars are a million to one. And still, they come. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/16 "2011-05-06T17:01:23Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Are there any estimates of when we could land a man on Mars and bring him back to Earth and how much money it would take, if we started in earnest today? I’d guess that it would be by far the most expensive operation of any sort ever performed. The same funding applied to, e.g., medical or energy technologies would have hugely more impact. There are far, far, faaaaaar larger amounts of money already being spent on e.g. medical and energy technologies. Anyway, it may be private industry that gets to Mars first. Or, a government/consortium of governments may place the order to private industry. Doesn’t do much good to tell private industry it should spend its money on medical and energy technologies if they don’t feel like it. There does seem to be a lot of demonstrable progress being made in private launch technologies, inflatable habitat technologies, etc. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if within 10-15 years private entrepreneurs etc. at least demonstrate their ability to send some stuff to Mars, working and intact. I’m pretty pessimistic about governments and the citizenry in general getting around to sending people to Mars in my lifetime, but I’m of the opinion all bets are off talking about private industry. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/17 "2011-05-06T17:25:40Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > I’m pretty pessimistic about governments and the citizenry in general getting around to sending people to Mars in my lifetime, but I’m of the opinion all bets are off talking about private industry. Where’s the profit in sending people to Mars? I don’t see a lot of private companies setting up habitats in Antarctica, despite the fact that it’s far cheaper to get to than Mars and far more amenable to human life. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/18 "2011-05-06T17:55:48Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > Where’s the profit in sending people to Mars? > > I don’t see a lot of private companies setting up habitats in Antarctica, despite the fact that it’s far cheaper to get to than Mars and far more amenable to human life. Don’t ask me. Ask [SpaceX, planning to put a man on Mars in 10-20 years](http://news.discovery.com/space/spacex-elon-musk-mars-astronauts-20-years-110423.html). I have no desire to go to Antarctica. Apparently neither does SpaceX. Hm. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/19 "2011-05-06T18:06:40Z")
We are no where near ready to send a manned mission to mars. If we did, and it happened to make it there, I doubt anyone will return alive. Considering the general uselessness of such a mission, I doubt it will be attempted. We could be doing a lot more robotic exploration of Mars than we are now to satisfy curiosity. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2011, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937/20 "2011-05-06T18:53:06Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > Don’t ask me. Ask [SpaceX, planning to put a man on Mars in 10-20 years](http://news.discovery.com/space/spacex-elon-musk-mars-astronauts-20-years-110423.html). Not gonna happen. The degree of difficulty of getting humans to Mars and back alive isn’t just double or triple that of getting to the moon and back. It’s many times that, due mostly to the fact that Mars is 200 times as far away as the moon, and is that close only at certain times. And most of the difficulty in getting to either place is in preserving a safe habitat and providing necessary nutrients for these bags of protein and water we call our bodies during these journeys through space. One can send a robot to either place for a tiny fraction of the cost. That’s why nobody will go to Mars during my lifetime (I’ll make it to midcentury if I’m lucky), and why nobody’s in any hurry to go back to the moon. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-do-not-think-humans-are-going-to-send-people-to-mars-for-a-very-long-time/580937.md?page=2)