I don't know how to think of SpaceX anymore

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Lumpy

As I mentioned, they’re not going to start pouring money into that until they’re sure there’s a point to doing so. At worst, the first stages of a Mars base could consist of basically operating the ISS on Mars’ surface, 100% dependent on consumables shipped from Earth. That could continue either until the technologies needed are developed or until they give up.

Sustaining a colony of tens or hundreds of thousands of people “100% dependent on consumables shipped from Earth” is a logistical impossibility even if they have dirt cheap orbital launch capability. They idea that SpaceX is planning on Mars colonization, or even a large outpost, but isn’t “going to start pouring money into that until they’re sure there’s a point to doing so” is utter nonsense because getting people and supplies to Mars is the comparatively easy part. The budget for maintaining the International Space Station (independent of transportation costs) is ~US1.3B/year for a crew of six people; even if you want to argue that (somehow) SpaceX will do it for a small fraction of the cost, that is still several million dollars a year per person.

@Lumpy

I don’t doubt Starship is currently a huge money pit, probably huge enough that SpaceX doesn’t want to scare off investors. But we do know what SpaceX charges for Falcon flights and I doubt they’re doing it at a loss. We’ll know how cheap or not Starship is when SpaceX starts accepting payload bids for it.

I am morally certain that SpaceX is operating the Falcon 9 at a loss, or at best at cost. They are clearly hinging the success of the company on Starlink, of which it is also unclear whether that program is making a profit or will be able to attract and support the required number of subscribers once the satellite fleet is up to full capacity, notwithstanding what happens if a solar energetic particle event takes out much of their fleet, or they experience either an incidental or deliberate Kessler cascade.

@Chronos

Nobody is running experiments here on Earth with self-contained human habitats.

NASA has, in fact, been running months-long ‘expeditions’ of simulated Mars missions in ‘self-contained habitats’ (albeit, not environmentally self-contained) for many years, the latest of which is CHAPEA. HI-SEAS was the previous series of simulations. Several of these have not gone well, requiring evacuation of one or more ‘crew members’ due to injuries, anxiety, or crew conflicts. None of them, of course, simulate the low gravity field (37% of Earth’s), the toxic perchlorates in the Martian regolith, the beyond-frigid environment, damage from UV radiation, the effect of weeks-long dust storms on communications and solar power, and of course the possibility that a single error on their transportation system might mean no provisions or possibility of rescue or return to Earth.

Stranger