# I don't think Hillary can win. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 28, 2015, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184 "2015-03-28T03:51:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/201 "2015-04-07T16:09:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That depends on what you mean as refusal. Sure, doing what Ted Cruz does is not very subtle. Making insulting statements during negotiations or changing the terms of a deal at the last second is a more sophisticated way to refuse compromise. In Woodward’s telling, but not just his, they had a deal and the President wanted more revenue at the last minute. Which caused the Republicans to walk out. When you have a deal and then you’re told you don’t have a deal, that’s a pretty reasonable time to just walk away. It’s a breach of trust. This isn’t how I heard it – I didn’t hear they “had a deal”, but rather were negotiating, and Obama increased the amount he wanted. That just sounds like negotiating. > [@](#): > > There was a change after the GOP won the HOuse though. When you control a chamber of Congress, you have a chance to actually do things, and they wanted to do things. And the book also chronicles how even before that, they were open to working on some issues but were totally shut out. The Democrats made concessions, sure, but there was no negotiation over those concessions and Republicans weren’t allowed to say what concessions they actually wanted. This sounds pretty much entirely like a Republican problem – they couldn’t say what concessions they wanted? > [@](#): > > I’m right about some liberals, by definition. So qualify your assertions, then. When you say “liberals are X”, you’re inevitably going to be wrong. > [@](#): > > Yes, some liberals are anti-Hillary. And some disagree with a lot of what she stands for but see no other options even though other options are available. If only they would learn about those other options and get behind them. > > Believe it or not, I get very few talking points from Hannity or Halperin. I get them from liberal writers. Such as this article about how progressives are focusing all their energies on someone who isn’t even running: > > [http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/politics/elizabeth-warren-elections-2016-hillary-clinton/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/politics/elizabeth-warren-elections-2016-hillary-clinton/index.html) > > And this is why I keep saying that liberals get focused too much on celebrity candidates. Because enough of them do that a non-celebrity has trouble generating any enthusiasm. The 2008 race was when this got started. It had some of the most qualified Democrats to ever run for President and who did activists focus their love on? The three junior Senators in the race. > > So yeah, I apologize to the dozens and dozens of O’Malley fans here. I’m an “O’Malley fan”, and I’d bet lots of money that plenty of Dopers (dozens, perhaps) are O’Malley fans as well. That doesn’t mean that I’ve decided he’s my candidate – he hasn’t even announced he’s running! Nor, for that matter, have Hillary or Warren. So your “concerns” about this are utter bullshit – feel free to make them if liberals (and liberal Dopers) are saying “O’Malley sucks, I don’t like him, I want Warren or no one else”… but no one is saying this. There’s a reason Obama got a lot of love in the '08 run-up – _he was a terrific candidate_. Warren might be getting tons of love right now because activists think she’d be a great candidate. O’Malley could announce tomorrow, say the right things, and get the “love”. Way to early for your bullshit “concerns”. ---
**Author:** ![SirRay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cc9497/32.png) [@SirRay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SirRay)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2015, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/202 "2015-04-07T16:18:05Z")
Guys, Guys, this whole thread has become completely academic. Hillary - Has - Already - Won! [Fox Brings Back Dick Morris To Predict Doom For Hillary Clinton And Democrats](http://crooksandliars.com/2015/04/fox-brings-back-dick-morris-predict-doom) 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/203 "2015-04-07T16:21:43Z")
I’ll throw **adaher** a bone and say I definitely don’t want Biden. But then I’ve never been a Biden fan - not now, not in 2008, not at any point in between. But I’d still pick him over Jeb or Scott or Ted or Rick or Rand. I’d be very, very disappointed in the Democrats for nominating him, but I’d vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/204 "2015-04-08T00:12:13Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > She certainly can win. She almost certainly would have defeated McCain in '08. That doesn’t mean she will win – assuming she is nominated, it will depend on her campaign and her opponent. And she may not even win the primaries, this is not guessing or imagining, it actually happened in 2008. Despite her name recognition, she was defeated by Barack Obama. All it takes is for a young democrat with ideas and solutions to run and Hillary may yet again be defeated even before setting off to election day against a Republican. As for Joe Biden, highly doubt he will even attempt to run. His age is against him, as it is with Hillary. Plus he too prone to gaffes. If a Democrat succeeds Barack Obama, it will be a young man/woman. The Republicans may sit out of the White House for twelve years or even sixteen. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/205 "2015-04-08T12:47:50Z")
> [@Nema98](#): > > All it takes is for a young democrat with ideas and solutions to run Got a name or two in mind? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/206 "2015-04-08T14:45:51Z")
> [@Nema98](#): > > All it takes is for a young democrat with ideas and solutions to run and Hillary may yet again be defeated even before setting off to election day against a Republican. That’s my biggest issue with Hills. I’ve never gotten what her message is. I guess it’s “I have experience now and I’m the biggest Democrat besides Obama.” I think she can win, and I actually think she’ll be a good president (and I’m hoping that if she’s president Bill in no way actually pulls the strings _wink wink_) but I think she’s very vulnerable. And **ElvisL1ves** , I don’t have an answer to who’s a young democrat with ideas and solutions. That’s why I think Hillary will be the candidate. But she’s likely to energize the Republican base \*against \*her more than the Democratic base \*for \*her. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/207 "2015-04-08T15:30:49Z")
I don’t see how the Republican base could be any more energized against her than they’ve been since 1992, but we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/208 "2015-04-08T18:49:39Z")
According to [this](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html), Hillary was leading Obama 34.7 to 22.1 on 4/8/2007. A greater than 14 point lead. According to [this](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html), Hillary has a 47.6 point lead on Warren on 4/8/2015. This young democrat that is going to catch fire is way behind where Obama was at this point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/209 "2015-04-08T18:52:19Z")
That’s mainly because the Warren supporters are pining after an unavailable candidate. Once they have to choose among the Clinton alternatives, one will emerge. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/210 "2015-04-08T19:01:11Z")
Which Clinton alternatives are you imagining? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/211 "2015-04-08T19:18:29Z")
Even if all (100%) of the Warren and Biden supporters switched their preference to O’Malley, O’Malley would still be trailing Clinton by about 35 points. He would have to be a more inspirational candidate than Obama to make up greater ground in less time. I see no reason to believe that O’Malley (or any other democrat) is such a candidate. However, while I don’t believe such a person exists, I would love to see one appear. If someone shows up with a greater ability to gain electoral momentum than Obama, the republicans are fucked. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/212 "2015-04-08T19:24:04Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Even if all (100%) of the Warren and Biden supporters switched their preference to O’Malley, O’Malley would still be trailing Clinton by about 35 points. He would have to be a more inspirational candidate than Obama to make up greater ground in less time. I see no reason to believe that O’Malley (or any other democrat) is such a candidate. > > However, while I don’t believe such a person exists, I would love to see one appear. If someone shows up with a greater ability to gain electoral momentum than Obama, the republicans are fucked. Very true. Clinton is a strong candidate. For her to lose the nomination will take a stellar candidate running an impeccable campaign. I’m puzzled if Republicans think they really want to face such a candidate rather than the merely strong Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/213 "2015-04-08T19:54:54Z")
Any potential candidate \*already _has to be out there, working the donors, making speeches, shaking hands, etc. \* But there aren’t any_. HRC is going to be the nominee, not Warren or someone imaginary. You can ponder who your idea of an ideal candidate would be all you like, but only real humans are available, sorry, damned few of them at that, and you’re going to have to pick the best one of the lot. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/214 "2015-04-09T02:49:29Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Very true. Clinton is a strong candidate. For her to lose the nomination will take a stellar candidate running an impeccable campaign. I’m puzzled if Republicans think they really want to face such a candidate rather than the merely strong Clinton. Republicans don’t. Warren would be the ideal candidate to face, but Clinton or Biden would do as well. The biggest problem is a fresh face with moderate views, or someone experienced who has been above it all, like Al Gore. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/215 "2015-04-09T10:42:22Z")
One of the perverse advantages of Clinton running is that the Republicans have already thrown everything including the kitchen sink at her and she’s still going. They can keep chanting “Benghazi” and “Vince Foster” and whatever else, and it’s not going to sway anyone who hasn’t been swayed. Even the astroturfed PUMA thing has been done. Really, the biggest opponent Clinton has to overcome is her own campaign. In 2008 between coming out too aggressively, her “landing under fire” gaffe, Bill being Bill, and a few other minor missteps, she weakened her own chances at the same time Obama wasn’t putting a foot wrong. One would hope that she’s learned from experience - and that’s a helluva lot of experience - but we shall see. On the other hand, the chances of her coming up against a Republican who won’t be busily machine-gunning his own foot is pretty small so she’s definitely got a good chance this time if she ever fucking declares. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/216 "2015-04-09T10:44:45Z")
Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot, this is true. But counting on that, while running a gaffe-prone candidate of your own, and further, one who is gaffe prone despite being ultracautious, which means she’ll never say anything GOOD interesting, is a mistake. As in 2014, I think the postmortem analysis will be, “Should’ve gone with a fresh face.” ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/217 "2015-04-09T11:06:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans often shoot themselves in the foot, this is true. But counting on that, while running a gaffe-prone candidate of your own, and further, one who is gaffe prone despite being ultracautious, which means she’ll never say anything GOOD interesting, is a mistake. > > As in 2014, I think the postmortem analysis will be, “Should’ve gone with a fresh face.” As in 2012, I think the postmortem will be “where the hell is **adaher**?”. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/218 "2015-04-09T11:08:44Z")
I haven’t actually predicted a result yet. And you should honor my prowess since I went from worst in 2012 to first in 2014. No one came closer than me to the result on this board. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/219 "2015-04-09T11:13:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I haven’t actually predicted a result yet. And you should honor my prowess since I went from worst in 2012 to first in 2014. No one came closer than me to the result on this board. I’ll honor your prowess in mid-term elections, which are very different than presidential elections. And you did predict a result – you predicted a postmortem analysis of a Clinton loss. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/220 "2015-04-09T11:22:18Z")
IF she loses, I believe that will be the analysis. Whether or not she loses depends on the Republican candidate, the state of the economy, and Obama’s approval rating. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184.md?page=12)