# I don't think Hillary can win. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 28, 2015, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184 "2015-03-28T03:51:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/81 "2015-03-31T12:13:18Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Sites like the Drudge Report or Gawker “break” the story. The conservative media pundits repeat it and build up some buzz. When that happens the mainstream media follows along and reports the fact that accusations have been made as the story. > > The email “story” is a good example of this. There’s no actual story for a real newspaper to report. Clinton used a private email account, which is not illegal and which past Secretaries of State have also done. But the Gawker ran it as a story and suggested that it was somehow wrong without really explaining why. > > Then people like you come along and say it doesn’t matter whether or not she did anything wrong. Because the real story is her refusal to admit she did something wrong. That’s not what happened here. The issue has never been whether she’s done anything truly illegal. It’s that she, nor her fans, think that she has any obligation other than to skate right at the edge of the law. And if she does break the law, we never know because she always makes sure documents aren’t available. I’ve never seen a candidate more careless with documents. Except it’s probably not carelessness. If that was just her habit, she’d have had IRS troubles. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/82 "2015-03-31T13:06:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Did you think Bill Clinton could win in 1991 or Barack Obama could win in 2007? I’m pretty sure nothing in the next year will change your mind and convince you to vote for her. But history has shown that people will elect a Democrat. One data point: if the election were between Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton, I’d vote for Hillary Clinton. Me. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/83 "2015-03-31T13:43:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s not what happened here. The issue has never been whether she’s done anything truly illegal. And her detractors are entitled to vote for someone else. But unless there is evidence she broke the law, a Congressional investigation is not warranted. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/84 "2015-03-31T13:52:31Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Seriously? I thought the reason is pretty obvious. The Clintons are Democrats and conservatives don’t want them in office. Hillary used to be a club they could hit Bill with. But since 2000, she’s being attacked in her own right. > > Which, as I said in the past, is one of Clinton’s hidden strengths. The right wing media has already used up all its good material on Hillary Clinton and she’s survived it. Twenty years ago, they were accusing her of being a drug lord and a serial killer. Now the best they can come up with is she’s misused her email account. Damn straight. Pretty much anything they can throw at her may rouse their rabble, but most of America will just yawn and ask, “haven’t we heard this before?” Or in the case of the email stuff, “isn’t this really penny-ante bullshit?” Hillary will win for three obvious reasons: 1. The underlying demographics of Presidential election voters; 2. by this time next year, unless the Fed screws things up, the economy will (finally!) be a very positive thing in most Americans’ lives; and 3. by this time next year, the ultimate GOP nominee will have already signed on to more crazy shit than the White Queen was able to believe before breakfast. That nominee won’t be Ted Cruz, but there won’t be a whole lot of difference between what Ted Cruz stands for, and the positions taken by the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/85 "2015-03-31T14:41:42Z")
#3 is the wildcard, but historically it’s very hard to succeed a President of the same party. And Clinton has a big name, but has never had to win over independent voters. She wasn’t even all that good at winning over Democrats when faced with real competition. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/86 "2015-03-31T15:11:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > #3 is the wildcard, About as much of a wild card as the sun rising in the east, or Thanksgiving falling on a Thursday. > [@](#): > > but historically it’s very hard to succeed a President of the same party. When people talk about such historical patterns, I always want to know: 1. How many data points? 2. How comparable are they? Our politics have been changing so rapidly that even relatively recent elections may not be a very reliable guide. > [@](#): > > And Clinton has a big name, but has never had to win over independent voters. She wasn’t even all that good at winning over Democrats when faced with real competition. What, in a general election? ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/87 "2015-03-31T15:14:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > #3 is the wildcard, but historically it’s very hard to succeed a President of the same party. And Clinton has a big name, but has never had to win over independent voters. She wasn’t even all that good at winning over Democrats when faced with real competition. She doesn’t have to “win them over” in the general. She just has to appear less crazy than the GOP candidates. Hardly a high fence to climb. I think you’re just not ready to accept that while HRC is hardly a Dream Candidate, she is by far the least worst choice. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/88 "2015-03-31T15:17:40Z")
No, but it also implies that all the GOP has to do to beat her is nominate someone just as safe and cautious. And let’s not forget that predictions of GOP self-implosion were frequent leading up to 2014. The story of 2014 ended up being a relatively disciplined batch of Senate candidates. If a couple dozen relative political newcomers can avoid self-destruction, I’m sure one Presidential candidate can. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/89 "2015-03-31T15:34:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > She wasn’t even all that good at winning over Democrats when faced with real competition. She lost an extremely close primary to the most successful presidential candidate of all time. Depending on what assumptions are made about certain states’ primary popular vote totals she may have even been better at winning over Democrats than Obama. [Link](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Popular_vote_table). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/90 "2015-03-31T15:35:10Z")
Speaking of #3 as the alleged wild card, GOP candidates are already lining up to endorse Indiana’s new “right of businesses to discriminate against gays” law. [This includes](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/gop-candidates-back-indianas-anti-gay-law-amid-uproar#break) Jeb, Rubio, Cruz, Jindal, Santorum, and of course Ben Carson. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/91 "2015-03-31T15:43:46Z")
As an anecdotal point I find [this poll](http://www.gallup.com/poll/1678/most-admired-man-woman.aspx) from Gallup particularly interesting. If you scroll down you’ll note that “Most Admired Man” largely tracks against the sitting president but “Most Admired Woman” is more variable - and Hillary’s name appears on that list for 18 of the past 21 years. I don’t think this is particularly significant in terms of predicting electability - if you scroll back up, the percentages are fairly low and the second place contender for the past six years has been Oprah, who I definitely wouldn’t vote for. But it does suggest that she’s got a little more going for her that just being “Democratic and female”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/92 "2015-03-31T15:44:25Z")
Well sure, if it’s lied about that looks pretty bad. Too bad it’s actually just the Religious Freedom Restoration Act at the state level. Tim Cook kinda helped us out by calling religious freedom “dangerous”. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/93 "2015-03-31T15:45:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, but it also implies that all the GOP has to do to beat her is nominate someone just as safe and cautious. This could be just the break the [del]McCain[/del] Huntsman campaign has been waiting for! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/94 "2015-03-31T15:49:50Z")
Hillary Clinton=Martha Coakley. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/95 "2015-03-31T15:50:50Z")
[Even Indiana businesses are harshly opposed to this thing.](http://www.indystar.com/story/money/2015/03/30/nine-ceos-call-pence-legislature-modify-religious-freedom-law/70689924/) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/96 "2015-03-31T15:52:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well sure, if it’s lied about that looks pretty bad. Too bad it’s actually just the Religious Freedom Restoration Act at the state level. That \*is \*the central lie. You need to change the channel sometime. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/97 "2015-03-31T15:54:31Z")
Businesses have no interest in personal liberty, so that says nothing other than that they fear a backlash. Once the furor dies down and consumers figure out that the only people that really have a right to discriminate are those that have always had a right to discriminate, it’ll be a whole lot of nothing. The furor will die down even sooner once the law is explained, and Mike Pence is giving it a go. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/98 "2015-03-31T15:57:19Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > She lost an extremely close primary to the most successful presidential candidate of all time. By what measure are you calling Obama the most successful presidential candidate of all time? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/99 "2015-03-31T16:00:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Businesses have no interest in personal liberty Hobby Lobby disagrees. > [@](#): > > Once the furor dies down and consumers figure out that the only people that really have a right to discriminate are those that have always had a right to discriminate, it’ll be a whole lot of nothing. That is not the case in Indiana. Please inform yourself. > [@](#): > > The furor will die down even sooner once the law is explained, and Mike Pence is giving it a go. How’s that workin’ out for ya? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184/100 "2015-03-31T16:01:14Z")
On an intangible, being able to inspire people, many of them new voters, I’d give him that title. In terms of electoral success, he’s just good. Reagan, FDR, and LBJ did better. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-think-hillary-can-win/716184.md?page=6)