I don't understand what voters Trump could've picked up between 2016 and 2020

  • There is considerably more atheism-presence in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. If you presented the question, “Is God an imaginary being, no more real than the flying spaghetti monster?” to the Republican and Democratic parties, you’d probably get a considerably higher number of “yes” answers from the latter than the former.
  • The Democratic Party is, by and large, the more pro-choice, pro-LGBT party (note that political Christianity ought to be about far more than just these two issues, but for some reason American Christians focus heavily on these two)
  • The Republicans are considerably more likely than the Democrats to agree that “Christians in America face persecution” (note that most Democrats probably wouldn’t dispute that Christians abroad in places like Saudi Arabia or North Korea might face persecution, but balk at the notion that anti-Christian persecution exists in the U.S. itself.)
  • The Democrats are considerably likelier than Republicans to say that religion and state should be kept separate (note that supporting religious liberty and supporting a theocracy are quite different, in fact perhaps contradictory, but some branches such as Christian Dominionism explicitly state their goal of a theocracy.)
  • The Democrats are considerably likelier than Republicans to say that religion and state should be kept separate (note that supporting religious liberty and supporting a theocracy are quite different, in fact perhaps contradictory, but some branches such as Christian Dominionism explicitly state their goal of a theocracy. Most conservatives don’t ascribe to Christian Dominionism though.)
  • There is a punch-up/punch-down phenomenon at work in America when it comes to religion, just like there is one with regards to gender, race, etc. Generally, Democrats are likelier to feel an urge to defend a Muslim, Buddhist, Shintoist, Hindu, etc. whom they feel has come under attack in America, than a Christian in America, since they feel that Christianity is the majority religion and therefore “needs less help” than a minority religion. Similarly, jokes or mockery of Christianity are generally perceived by Democrats as being less severe than jokes or mockery of other religions.
  • Theologically, Democrats are likelier to reject things like Young-Earth Creationism, literal interpretation of Scripture (i.e., a worldwide flood,) and whatnot.

I could write more, but I’m at work now and need to get back to things.

FWIW, I’ll also add an anecdote: I worked for a Republican Party internship in 2010 in California and topics of prayer and God and whatnot came up, and a Republican candidate exclaimed, “Isn’t it great that we’re in the party where this sort of topic is still allowed?”