# I don't want to wait 7 years for a petabyte drive **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [December 11, 2008, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722 "2008-12-11T15:41:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Jragon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19b73/32.png) [@Jragon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jragon)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/21 "2008-12-12T04:30:51Z")
> [@Projammer](#): > > Too late for an ETA, but. > > Can’t find stats, but I shudder to think what a full Sims 2 installation might look like. > > I’ll see what the SO’s WoW directory looks like when I get home Sims 2, all expansions and one fun pack - no addons 10.8GB. The fun packs aren’t too big, I can’t imagine the number getting more than 12-15. WoW, with addons (typical users have addons so I’ll include it) - 11.7GB ---
**Author:** ![neutron\_star](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/51bf81/32.png) [@neutron\_star](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/neutron_star)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/22 "2008-12-12T04:40:30Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > You do realize that they’ve been saying that for over 20 years now. I was an engineer in the disk drive industry for most of the 90’s. In 1990 Maxtor came out with the first 100 Mbyte drive for under $100. Less than a dollar a Mb was nearly unbelievable. Now it’s a tiny fraction of a cent. True, but when they were saying those things back then, they didn’t have [128GB solid state drives that use the same interface as regular hard drives](http://www.allstarshop.com/shop/product.asp?pid=20923&ad=pwatch) already on the market. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/23 "2008-12-12T04:54:58Z")
> [@neutron\_star](#): > > True, but when they were saying those things back then, they didn’t have [128GB solid state drives that use the same interface as regular hard drives](http://www.allstarshop.com/shop/product.asp?pid=20923&ad=pwatch) already on the market. Ooh, I hadn’t seen that one. $319 for 128GB is starting to get pretty reasonable. I looked for something like a year ago and the prices were probably double that. ---
**Author:** ![clayton\_e](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c57346/32.png) [@clayton\_e](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clayton_e)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/24 "2008-12-12T05:20:42Z")
And **hajario** , its already happening with ipods. I bought an 80 gig a year or so ago for… what? 250 bucks? Now its non-existant and the 120 gig replaced it. After that, no more magnetic hard drive ipods. Mine will be a dinosaur in a couple years… Statistically prone to breakage due to moving parts compared to the solid state pods. This is happening with laptops for the same reason, being portable they’re more prone to breakage. A few, I believe, [are already on the market](http://www.buy.com/prod/samsung-x360-34p-laptop-intel-core-2-duo-u9400-1-4ghz-3gb-128gb-solid/q/loc/101/209849660.html) and [have been since early 2006](http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/laptops/samsung-q30-solid-state-laptop-175714.php), at least. When the cost of production comes down the reliability will make it a nice option for desktops as well. No moving parts means no breaking from physical wear out. We’ll be saying goodbye to our magnetic drives and their laughable needles the same way we did to vinyl records. ---
**Author:** ![neutron\_star](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/51bf81/32.png) [@neutron\_star](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/neutron_star)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/25 "2008-12-12T06:59:33Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Ooh, I hadn’t seen that one. $319 for 128GB is starting to get pretty reasonable. I looked for something like a year ago and the prices were probably double that. Yup, and a 64GB SSD is only $135. Next time I build myself a computer (should be soon, as I’m still running a freakin’ Athlon 1800), I think I’m going to get one to use as my system drive. I wonder how fast one of those things boots Windows. ---
**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/26 "2008-12-12T15:34:36Z")
> [@Jragon](#): > > Sims 2, all expansions and one fun pack - no addons 10.8GB. The fun packs aren’t too big, I can’t imagine the number getting more than 12-15. > > WoW, with addons (typical users have addons so I’ll include it) - 11.7GB Actually surprised about Sims 2. I go to the store and see close to a dozen different expansions and just assume they’re like expansions for other games where it’s pretty much all new contents and objects just running on the same engine. Color me educated. SO’s WoW is somewhere around 16.5g. That will be with all the expansions including Lich King because I bought it for her. I know she runs addons, just not which ones. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/27 "2008-12-12T15:53:11Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > More importantly, how powerful are our machines going to have to be to access that much data in a meaninfully short period of time? One of the advantages of a RAID array giving you a lot of hard drive space is that you have five separate hard drives and, with proper hardware, can access more than one chunk o’ data at a time. With a single hard drive holding a petabyte, that’s not so much of an option. > > If your game is taking up 100g of drive space, and it takes 30 seconds to load, how long is it going to take to load a useful amount off of a drive that holds 10,000 times that much data? Even if we’re just thinking of using them for data storage and archiving, that’s a lot of time spent transferring data. Hybrid flash. Flash doesn’t scale as well as magnetic (price per gb) at this point in time - but its really useful for accessing data quickly - so you “cache” onto the flash portion of the drive the parts of the game that require quick access - the rest sits on the hard drive. You combine fast with cheap. I think you can buy hybrid flash drives now. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/28 "2008-12-12T18:53:49Z")
> [@neutron\_star](#): > > True, but when they were saying those things back then, they didn’t have [128GB solid state drives that use the same interface as regular hard drives](http://www.allstarshop.com/shop/product.asp?pid=20923&ad=pwatch) already on the market. They didn’t even have 128 GB magnetic HDDs then either. > [@clayton+e](#): > > We’ll be saying goodbye to our magnetic drives and their laughable needles the same way we did to vinyl records. Maybe. I went to my first talk on the end of spinning magnetic disk drives when I was a grad student in a HDD industry supported research lab in 1988. I agree that today’s solid state is a way better candidate than bubble memory or optical drives of the past. I also acknowledge that I’ve been out of that industry for ten years so I’m not at all up on things. ---
**Author:** ![dwc1970](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a183cd/32.png) [@dwc1970](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dwc1970)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/29 "2008-12-12T18:55:04Z")
If 1.5 TB is the current maximum and if [Moore’s Law](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_Law) still holds we should see petabyte drives come onto the market around 2023 or so. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2008, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/30 "2008-12-12T21:52:37Z")
> [@dwc1970](#): > > If 1.5 TB is the current maximum and if [Moore’s Law](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_Law) still holds we should see petabyte drives come onto the market around 2023 or so. Moore’s law describes microprocessor density, not magnetic storage. Hard drives increase in density much faster than semiconductors, which is why I don’t see solid state storage displacing it for a long. long time. ---
**Author:** ![neutron\_star](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/51bf81/32.png) [@neutron\_star](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/neutron_star)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2008, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/31 "2008-12-13T01:02:03Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > They didn’t even have 128 GB magnetic HDDs then either. My point was that they didn’t have solid state drives on the market that were about 1/10th the size of the largest magnetic drives. ---
**Author:** ![eldowan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/848f3c/32.png) [@eldowan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eldowan)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2008, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/32 "2008-12-13T01:52:37Z")
But we will also have to consider the wrap that solid state has for limited writes. Wasn’t the upper limit for the amount of times a specific piece of the flash memory can be overwritten before it degrades to be nearly unusable something in the low 100k ? I don’t believe magnetic storage devices have this kind of limitation, but someone please correct me if I am misinformed. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2008, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/33 "2008-12-13T02:34:20Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > Moore’s law describes microprocessor density, not magnetic storage. It does a good job describing magnetic storage density too. I believe that Paul Frank first pointed that out. > [@neutron star](#): > > My point was that they didn’t have solid state drives on the market that were about 1/10th the size of the largest magnetic drives. I see. That does make sense. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2008, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/34 "2008-12-13T03:27:20Z")
Never mind. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2008, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722/35 "2008-12-13T04:01:30Z")
> [@eldowan](#): > > Wasn’t the upper limit for the amount of times a specific piece of the flash memory can be overwritten before it degrades to be nearly unusable something in the low 100k ? If you look at the product linked to in post #22, you’ll see that it includes the total number of rewrites (1,000,000), which seems reasonable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-dont-want-to-wait-7-years-for-a-petabyte-drive/476722.md?page=1)