# I feel like climatologists need to stop predicting the future. **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [March 7, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731 "2019-03-07T23:08:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/21 "2019-03-08T19:17:16Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Most climatologists say that we are already past the tipping point and that significant changes can’t be avoided no matter what we do now. Is this a prediction in any way? I am trying to figure out how you define “prediction”, other than “something that hasn’t happened yet but might.” ‘The world will end in 12 years unless we do something’ wasn’t a prediction, ‘nations will be wiped off the globe unless we reverse global warming by the year 2000’ wasn’t a prediction. Is ‘significant changes can’t be avoided’ a prediction? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/22 "2019-03-08T19:32:44Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > That “prediction” has not been proved false in any way, and in fact may turn out to be correct. Read it carefully. It doesn’t say all those things will happen by 2000. It says _they will happen at an unspecified future time_ if global warming has not been reversed. Global warming has not been reversed, so they may still be in the cards. Most climatologists say that we are already past the tipping point and that significant changes can’t be avoided no matter what we do now. All we can do is lessen the detrimental effects. Actually it says they will happen if the global warming trend has not been reversed by the year 2000. Was the global warming trend reversed in the year 2000? But it still seems like a pretty open-ended prediction to me. ---
**Author:** ![LionelHutz405](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lionelhutz405/32/536_2.png) [@LionelHutz405](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LionelHutz405)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/23 "2019-03-08T19:33:48Z")
> [@Ambivalid](#): > > Do you have links to any of these definitive predictive statements made by climatologists who were later shown to be wrong? Here is a youtube video that contains a bunch of these claims. From the description: On June 23 1988, NASA’s James Hansen testified before Congress and made very specific predictions about global warming. In this video I show how he got them exactly backwards, and how scientists and journalists continue to spread baseless misinformation. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/24 "2019-03-08T20:06:17Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Is this a prediction in any way? I am trying to figure out how you define “prediction”, other than “something that hasn’t happened yet but might.” Climatologists generally don’t give predictions as such, but a range of probabilities for outcomes based on scenarios. For example, in [this graph](http://ccir.ciesin.columbia.edu/nyc/images/1e_Fig2.gif)probabilities are given for temperature change based on high CO2 and low CO2 emissions in the future. And different models may give different probabilities. “Significant changes can’t be avoided” can be taken to mean something like there’s a 95% probability that such changes will occur under present emissions trends. > [@Slash1972](#): > > Actually it says they will happen if the global warming trend has not been reversed by the year 2000. Was the global warming trend reversed in the year 2000? But it still seems like a pretty open-ended prediction to me. No, it wasn’t, which those outcomes are still on the table to occur at some future time. Yes, it’s open ended in the sense that that article it does not give a time frame for those outcomes to happen. I’m not really sure what aspect of this you’re not getting. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/25 "2019-03-08T20:09:10Z")
> [@LionelHutz405](#): > > Here is a youtube video that contains a bunch of these claims. > > > From the description: > On June 23 1988, NASA’s James Hansen testified before Congress and made very specific predictions about global warming. In this video I show how he got them exactly backwards, and how scientists and journalists continue to spread baseless misinformation. I’m not watching a 14 minute video to sort out what these might be. How about posting what you think are the main points. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/26 "2019-03-08T20:15:23Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > No, it wasn’t, which those outcomes are still on the table to occur at some future time. Yes, it’s open ended in the sense that that article it does not give a time frame for those outcomes to happen. > > I’m not really sure what aspect of this you’re not getting. There isn’t any aspect I’m not getting. Just stating what the article actually said, and the open-endedness of the prediction. Not sure what YOU are not getting. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/27 "2019-03-08T20:21:59Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > There isn’t any aspect I’m not getting. Just stating what the article actually said, and the open-endedness of the prediction. In other words, you understand that Brown didn’t say anything that was incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![Airk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de053/32.png) [@Airk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airk)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/28 "2019-03-08T20:22:25Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Actually it says they will happen if the global warming trend has not been reversed by the year 2000. Was the global warming trend reversed in the year 2000? But it still seems like a pretty open-ended prediction to me. It has not, and therefore, a number of island nations are doomed, yes. It doesn’t mean that the sea is going to swallow up those places by the year 2000, it means “If we don’t take action 2000, there will be no saving those places.” and honestly, that seems correct. Basically: Climatologists have said a lot of stuff, and virtually none of it has had a chance to come true yet, but all signs point to most of it being correct. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/29 "2019-03-08T20:29:44Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > In other words, you understand that Brown didn’t say anything that was incorrect. Of course, if your prediction is “Sometime between the year 2000 and the end of the universe” it’s kind of hard to be incorrect. To me, if someone makes a prediction in 1989, I would expect it to be proven true by 2019, but that’s just me. You may require less rigor in the predictions you accept. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/30 "2019-03-08T20:36:56Z")
For those of you who are having such difficulty telling climatologists from people who have opinions, informed or otherwise, about the weather: Please check out [this site that tells you all about what they are and what they do.](https://www.environmentalscience.org/career/climatologist) ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/31 "2019-03-08T20:44:17Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > To me, if someone makes a prediction in 1989, I would expect it to be proven true by 2019, but that’s just me. If that’s the level of your understanding, I think we can safely ignore your opinions on the matter. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/32 "2019-03-08T20:46:30Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > If that’s the level of your understanding, I think we can safely ignore your opinions on the matter. Sure I’ll take that from someone who thinks “Sometime in the near or far future” is an accurate prediction that we should worry about. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/33 "2019-03-08T20:54:49Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Sure I’ll take that from someone who thinks “Sometime in the near or far future” is an accurate prediction that we should worry about. Of course I didn’t say that, or anything like it, so this just reinforces my opinion of the value of your input. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/34 "2019-03-08T20:58:13Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Of course I didn’t say that, or anything like it, so this just reinforces my opinion of the value of your input. Well, I didn’t say you said that, so your input value has dropped to zero as well. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/35 "2019-03-08T21:24:34Z")
> [@Slash1972](#): > > Sure I’ll take that from someone who thinks “Sometime in the near or far future” is an accurate prediction that we should worry about. > [@Slash1972](#): > > Well, I didn’t say you said that, so your input value has dropped to zero as well. You do realize we can all see your previous posts, don’t you? But I’m done responding to you unless you make an actual point that deserves one. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/36 "2019-03-08T21:30:38Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > You do realize we can all see your previous posts, don’t you? > > But I’m done responding to you unless you make an actual point that deserves one. To be fair, he didn’t say that you said those things. His claim is that _he read your mind_ and that you were _thinking_ those things. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2019, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/37 "2019-03-08T21:55:03Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > To be fair, he didn’t say that you said those things. His claim is that _he read your mind_ and that you were _thinking_ those things. _I didn’t say everything I said._ -Yogi Berra ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2019, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/38 "2019-03-09T13:09:35Z")
Posts like the OP and some of the followups bother me. Should climatologists make predictions? Sure they should. But we need to pay attention to the consensus, not the outliers. This idiotic, misleading references to fringe stuff is a terrible argument technique. It reflects very badly on the person making such a reference. _Very_ badly. It’s like smearing an ethnicity due to a crime committed by one member. Consensus predictions are incredibly helpful and should definitely be discussed. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2019, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/39 "2019-03-09T14:34:08Z")
Obligatory [XKCD](https://xkcd.com/1732/) ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2019, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731/40 "2019-03-10T06:24:39Z")
It’s not only climate campaigners who do this: there is a similar dispute in epidemiology. During the Ebola epidemic, WHO and others refused to report the success of counter measures because they were afraid that people would think that the problem had gone away. Influenza reporting and immunization campaigns are bedeviled with warnings about possible pandemics, again, because people are worried that if we aren’t frightened we’ll think that the problem has gone away. I tend to agree with the OP: I think the problems that climate believers have in Aus are largely self-inflicted. But I take a wider view about the USA: I believe that the problems science has in the USA are largely self-inflicted, and climatology is only one chapter of that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-feel-like-climatologists-need-to-stop-predicting-the-future/830731.md?page=3)