# I get your skewed poll right here **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 1, 2013, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855 "2013-06-01T11:36:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/61 "2013-06-02T06:12:56Z")
> [@Cyros](#): > > I’m willing to bet that Obama gets zero votes in 2016. How much money do you want to bet? I’m willing to bet he gets at least one write-in vote. I’ll cast it if necessary.😉 ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/62 "2013-06-02T06:44:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Anyway, the point of the thread was to show that between 2008 and 2012, a full 2.4 million voters in one important demographic(young voters) did not vote for Obama. Those are all winnable voters for the GOP, and elections are still close enough that 2.4 million is quite the swing group to compete for. And frankly, I doubt any plausible Democratic candidates for President over the next 8-12 years are going to be able to win them. You’re assuming that those young voters didn’t vote for Obama because he turned out to be too liberal. However, despite the GOP propaganda, Obama has not been a particularly liberal president. The disillusionment with Obama, particularly among the young, is that he has not been liberal enough. Those voters are not likely to be winnable by the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/63 "2013-06-02T06:49:39Z")
Actually, I’m assuming that 2.4 million voters didn’t vote for him because they thought he was a different kind of politician but turned out to be more of the same. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/64 "2013-06-02T06:53:49Z")
The GOP’s strongest generational supporters – Boomers and pre-Boomers – will be dying, while today’s teenagers – too young to remember when the GOP was sane – will be old enough to vote. This is good news for the GOP. Check. Europeans opposed to their left-wing government’s policies will immigrate to U.S.A. in droves and vote, not for the right-of-center party (Democrats), but for the Party of Buffoons, Homophobes, Liars, Liberto-idiots, Anti-Illuminatiists and Religious Fanatics. Check. I’m bookmarking this OP in case anyone wonders whether today’s Republicans are out of touch. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/65 "2013-06-02T07:23:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, I’m assuming that 2.4 million voters didn’t vote for him because they thought he was a different kind of politician but turned out to be more of the same. You ever hear the joke about outrunning a bear? Barack Obama is not a great president. But the Republicans couldn’t find anyone who could beat him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/66 "2013-06-02T07:40:10Z")
True. The problem is that there’s more than just one election. What happens after Obama? Will minorities continue to turn out big for an old white guy, or even an old white lady? If the lack of turnout when Obama isn’t on the ticket is any indication, they will not. The only guy who excites young people nearly as much as Obama did was Ron Paul, and it’s rubbed off on his son. Libertarianism sells with young people. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/67 "2013-06-02T08:50:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, I’m assuming that 2.4 million voters didn’t vote for him because they thought he was a different kind of politician but turned out to be more of the same. Right. They thought he was going to be a liberal, but he turned out to be another Republican. I don’t see any scenario where that turns into a gain for the actual Republican party, though. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/68 "2013-06-02T08:59:04Z")
Young voters aren’t normally disconnected from politics because politicians aren’t liberal. They are disconnected from politics because politicians are at their best dishonest, at their worst criminal. Obama was portrayed as different and his 2008 campaign was based around him being different. Of course, by 2012 he couldn’t run on that anymore, thus the lower youth turnout for him. But regardless of whether young voters eventually turn Republican(many will once they start making money and paying income taxes), or just stay home for the rest of their lives, Democrats missed an opportunity. The predictions of Democratic dominance will just have to be pushed back yet again a few more years. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/69 "2013-06-02T09:16:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Young voters aren’t normally disconnected from politics because politicians aren’t liberal. They are disconnected from politics because politicians are at their best dishonest, at their worst criminal. Obama was portrayed as different and his 2008 campaign was based around him being different. > > Of course, by 2012 he couldn’t run on that anymore, thus the lower youth turnout for him. Right, that’s what I just said. In 2008, Obama appeared to be a strong liberal candidate. His performance over the next four years turned off a lot of voters, because his presidency turned out to be a lot less liberal than his campaign. There’s no scenario where a significant number of those young voters who stayed home in 2012 turn Republican, because they’re further to the left than the Democratic party. You have a better shot at turning the voters who _did_ vote for him in 2012, because they’re going to be more moderate. > [@](#): > > But regardless of whether young voters eventually turn Republican(many will once they start making money and paying income taxes), or just stay home for the rest of their lives, Democrats missed an opportunity. Not really. Those voters have shown that they’ll come out in support of a sufficiently appealing liberal candidate. Obama was no longer that candidate for them in 2012, but he’s not going to be running in 2016. > [@](#): > > The predictions of Democratic dominance will just have to be pushed back yet again a few more years. Just out of curiosity, have you ever correctly predicted a social or political trend? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/70 "2013-06-02T10:45:18Z")
That’s why we’ll give them a libertarian to cheer for, with any luck. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/71 "2013-06-02T10:56:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The only guy who excites young people nearly as much as Obama did was Ron Paul, and it’s rubbed off on his son. Libertarianism sells with young people. You do realize that Ron Paul ran for President in 2008 and 2012? People got a chance to take a look at his ideas and the consensus was “Wow, I never understood how insane Libertarianism really is.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/72 "2013-06-02T11:21:14Z")
For an insane ideology, it keeps on gaining, ever so slowly. We’ll never reach the Pauls’ ideal, of course, but we’ll continue to get freer, both on social issues and economic issues. And although Paul lost, his son is more politically adept, less radical, and just as capable of exciting young people. Plus he recognizes that Republicans need to attract more minority voters and has been bold enough to actively try to persuade them, something which got no small amount of hate right here on SDMB. Seems like the only thing liberals hate more than Republicans not reaching out to minorities is Republicans reaching out to minorities. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/73 "2013-06-02T11:59:55Z")
So let me get this straight: Republicans groused about Obama still running against Bush in 2012, but now your big plan for victory in 2016 and beyond is Obama’s electoral “weaknesses.” Good luck with that. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 12:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/74 "2013-06-02T12:06:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > For an insane ideology, it keeps on gaining, ever so slowly. We’ll never reach the Pauls’ ideal, of course, but we’ll continue to get freer, both on social issues and economic issues. Real slowly. 1976 - Democrats 40,831,881 - Republicans 39,148,634 - Libertarians 172,553 (4th) 1980 - Republicans 43,903,230 - Democrats 35,480,115 - Libertarians 921,128 (4th) 1984 - Republicans 54,455,472 - Democrats 37,577,352 - Libertarians 228,111 (3rd) 1988 - Republicans 48,886,097 - Democrats 41,809,074 - Libertarians 431,750 (3rd) 1992 - Democrats 44,909,806 - Republicans 39,104,550 - Libertarians 290,087 (4th) 1996 - Democrats 47,401,185 - Republicans 39,197,469 - Libertarians 485,759 (5th) 2000 - Democrats 50,999,897 - Republicans 50,456,002 - Libertarians 384,431 (5th) 2004 - Republicans 62,040,610 - Democrats 59,028,444 - Libertarians 397,265 (5th) 2008 - Democrats 69,498,516 - Republicans 59,948,323 - Libertarians 523,715 (4th) 2012 - Democrats 65,910,437 - Republicans 60,932,795 - Libertarians 1,275,951 (3rd) To put these numbers in perspective, Ross Perot was considered a major third party candidate in the 1992 election. He didn’t win. Nor did he come in second. But there’s a good argument that his presence may have effected the outcome of the election. That’s as strong a showing as any non-big party candidate has had in decades. It’s the pinnacle that the Libertarians are hoping to reach someday - not to win an election but to at least matter in an election. How close are they? Well, Perot ran a second time in 1996. This time he was treating like a joke and nobody cared that he was running. But even so, Ross Perot got more votes in 1996 than the Libertarians got in the last ten elections - combined. > [@adaher](#): > > And although Paul lost, his son is more politically adept, less radical, and just as capable of exciting young people. Plus he recognizes that Republicans need to attract more minority voters and has been bold enough to actively try to persuade them, something which got no small amount of hate right here on SDMB. Seems like the only thing liberals hate more than Republicans not reaching out to minorities is Republicans reaching out to minorities. Don’t confuse derision with hate. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/75 "2013-06-02T12:16:54Z")
The LIbertarian Party isn’t gaining, libertarianism is. It’s an indisputable fact that we are growing freer in all facets of society. Both parties are moving to the right on economic issues and the left on social issues. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/76 "2013-06-02T12:20:59Z")
_thwap_ _thwap_ _thwap_ What’s that sound? Just adaher stepping on another few rakes. I’d tell you it was about to be over but, well, if it’s bothering you, might want to invest in a lifetime supply of earplugs. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/77 "2013-06-02T12:36:06Z")
Once again [historic context](http://www.civicyouth.org/youthtruth-not-all-youth-vote-democratic-and-the-youth-vote-is-often-competitive/): The 2008 election 66 to 32 spread was an outlier and the less impressive 2012 60 to 37 was only slightly less so. If you have the time and energy you could do some number crunching and compare the youth spread each election to the general election results … my guess is that there is indeed a historic bias toward the Democratic candidate relative to the average voter spread even in the years that the youth vote went GOP but that the difference was larger in 2012 in any year other than in 2008. Certainly the absolute spread was larger than in any other non-2012 year. Linked to that article is [this one](http://www.civicyouth.org/the-millennial-pendulum/), which notes that > [@](#): > > Millennials (born after 1982) are starting their adult lives much more progressive on economic issues than any generation from the early 1960s to today. The historical analysis shows that each generation has held a fairly stable attitude toward economic issues that has remained durable even as major economic and political events have occurred. Each generation has grown somewhat more conservative as its members have moved through life. But the Millennials are starting to the left of previous generations and are therefore likely to move the country leftward for decades to come. The slow growth of Libertarianism and its louder voice within the GOP is, IMHO, actually a sign of the weakness of the GOP in general. It won’t shift Millenials off their relatively progressive beliefs. It won’t attract a large number of new youth voters. It will instead keep the GOP fractured, perhaps increasingly so. Mind you I understand the appeal of Libertarianism to a segment of well-educated youth: for the most part politicians with Libertarian beliefs are at least relatively intellectually honest and internally consistent. That aspect is appealing. But the vast majority of Americans, including younger voters, will continue to find what these politicians honestly believe to be unappealling when listened to with any attention whatsoever. Can the GOP simultaneously appeal to the Libertrian youth wthin their ranks and enough to the more economically progressive aging Millenials, and the growing “minority” population? Can they maintain their appeal to the Religious Right without losing the increasing numbers who have shifted a bit more socially progressive on issues such as gay rights? I am not saying it is impossible. It isn’t. But demographics are a point of challenge for them. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/78 "2013-06-02T14:20:54Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Just out of curiosity, have you ever correctly predicted a social or political trend? Let’s confirm adaher knows how _gravity_ works before asking him the harder stuff. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/79 "2013-06-02T14:32:39Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s the pinnacle that the Libertarians are hoping to reach someday - not to win an election but to at least matter in an election. I don’t think adaher is talking about a 3rd-party run; he wants the GOP to nominate a Paul or Ryan. It does seem farfetched though: [QUOTE=Republican strategists in their smoke-filled room] The voters got tired of crass stupidity, so we tried a smart but nasty guy. That didn’t work. What do we do now? … I know, let’s nominate a stark-raving lunatic! :smack: [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/80 "2013-06-02T14:39:32Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Meanwhile, Democrats have shown far more of an interventionist streak than Republicans. And if you think Obama isn’t going to bomb Iran, you don’t know the guy. I have many issues with him, but he’s never been afraid to drop bombs on people. Except at BENGHAZI, of course. Right? Am I right, people? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=5)