# I get your skewed poll right here **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 1, 2013, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855 "2013-06-01T11:36:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Oldeb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@Oldeb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oldeb)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/81 "2013-06-02T14:39:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And although Paul lost, his son is more politically adept, less radical, and just as capable of exciting young people. Plus he recognizes that Republicans need to attract more minority voters and has been bold enough to actively try to persuade them, Do you just read what they _say_ they’re going to do? Because Rand’s Howard experience was so painfully bad that even I felt sorry for him, and I hate almost every political belief the Paul family has ever espoused. There was absolutely nothing politically adept or exciting about that day. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/82 "2013-06-02T14:45:59Z")
There will always be a “conservative” party because there are conservative people. Its like people who feel a need to portray themselves as hard-headed realists. People who respond positively to the very word “austerity”. Slap that word on any policy, no matter how stupid, and you’ve half-way got them sold. They shove aside anything they can’t understand, regardless of the evidence, on the basis of “common sense” and “gut feelings”. Of course, the only real difference between a “gut feeling” and “feminine intuition” is testosterone poisoning. Like fathers who believe that the best thing they can do for their sons is to “toughen them up”. Give them the truth, they demand intellectual rigor, proof, evidence. Give them proof and evidence, they deride it as somehow effete and intellectual. And so long as conservatism accepts the necessity for change and only demands care and prudence in how it is brought about, they are valuable and worthy. But since the inmates took over the asylum, the conservatives are banished from the Teapublican Party, it is in the hands of reactionaries. It is one thing to stand athwart of progress and demand it to stop, that isn’t really very reasonable, but its not out and out nuts. Demanding that the clock run backwards, that’s nuts. Right about here is where **Adaher** will rush up and grab the mike and say “ **'luc** , I’m a let you finish, but…” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/83 "2013-06-02T15:00:36Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Except at BENGHAZI, of course. > > Right? > > Am I right, people? Reacting to events in a timely manner has never been the President’s strong suit. After all, they knew where bin Laden was for months before taking him out. Good thing bin Laden was tired of moving from place to place or he’d still be around. but planning a war? Obama proved in Libya that he’ll do that happily. And he’s said clearly that Iran’s development of nukes would be a redline. You don’t think he’s lying, do you? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/84 "2013-06-02T15:27:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Reacting to events in a timely manner has never been the President’s strong suit. After all, they knew where bin Laden was for months before taking him out. If you weren’t a dishonest person, you might have said, \*suspected \*in that sentence. And you might have mentioned that it was carefully planned. > [@](#): > > Good thing bin Laden was tired of moving from place to place or he’d still be around In adaher’s world, every success is a miserable failure. I suspect that means his miserable failures to argue his points are in his eyes, great success! > [@](#): > > but planning a war? Obama proved in Libya that he’ll do that happily. Yeah, the way he moved in all those ground troops, and demanded that the coalition not do anything at all. \*No, adaher, the central message of Buddhism isn’t, “every man for himself”. That’s a mistake. \* > [@](#): > > And he’s said clearly that Iran’s development of nukes would be a redline. You don’t think he’s lying, do you? And what would you have him do? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/85 "2013-06-02T15:30:33Z")
What kind of a question is that to his stating that Iran’s development of nukes is a redline? On Iran policy, I favor the President doing exactly what he’s doing right now: sabotaging their program covertly, supporting sanctions, and if it comes to that, bombing them. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/86 "2013-06-02T15:46:00Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > _thwap_ _thwap_ _thwap_ > > What’s that sound? Just adaher stepping on another few rakes. Is _that_ what that sound is? I thought he was doing something else entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/87 "2013-06-02T18:29:33Z")
Well, that’s 'cause drew didn’t mention the angry teeth-grinding little grumble after each rake-whap. Though in retrospect, even that might not be indicative. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/88 "2013-06-02T20:09:19Z")
So here’s some fun with numbers, using both [this source](http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/11/2012-youth-vote-anomaly-or-permanent.html) and historic election results. The relative Democratic youth advantage in Presidential elections (the amount that the youth vote for the Democratic candidate outperformed the general results) has been 1976 D+7 1980 R+8 1984 R+1 1988 D+3 1992 D+1 1996 D+10 2000 D+2 2004 D+7 2008 D+34 2012 D+23 Yes, Reagan did _better_ with youth voters than he did with voters in general but otherwise there has been a historic slight Democratic lean among youth voters. Nothing like these last two cycles and Obama’s regression towards the mean was not so impressive. Will there be further regression to the mean with different set of candidates? Maybe, maybe not. But the linked article also makes the following point: > [@](#): > > Republicans would have had to limit the Democrats margin of victory with 18-29 yr-olds to under ten points if they wanted to TIE President Obama. Remember, Romney lost that age group by 23 points, which is why he currently trails in the 2012 national popular vote 50.9 - 47.4%. So as you can see, even an optimist has to admit the GOP has their work cut out for them in cutting the Democrats margin with young voters to an amount where they can become competitive overall. > > About that “bad news” . . . While the GOP may be justified in believing Obama’s 30 pt winning margins among younger voters are an anomaly, they would be mistaken to cling to the hope of a drop in youth turnout in the future, as they did in 2012. As the 1st chart noted, high youth voter turnout is no anomaly. In fact, for all the pundits scratching their heads at 19% youth turnout in 2012, what would they have thought had it returned to 22%, as it was in 1992 (much less its historical high of 32% from 1976, shortly after the passage of the 26th Amendment)? The three election cycles where youth turnout dipped below 18% (1996-2004) stand out as more of an exception to the rule when examining exit poll data over the last 36 years Reagan’s gaining self identification among a group of youth 30 years ago has reaped benefits for the GOP for several decades as that cohort aged out of youth, and still does as that group still votes. The lean towards Obama was much larger. Will that stick and generalize to future Democratic candidates overall? It seems rational to assume that such is at least probable. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/89 "2013-06-02T20:21:47Z")
Libertarians are so much fun when they try to justify…well, anything they believe in with any argument other than “Fuck you, Jack. I got mine.” ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2013, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/90 "2013-06-02T23:27:51Z")
[Officially sanctioned Republican study on how the GOP is doing with young people:](http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/gop-youth-vote-report-92119.html?hp=t1) it is a “dismal present situation.” So happy **adaher** can find the silver lining! Things can only go up from here! It’s always darkest… right before the light totally goes out! ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/91 "2013-06-03T01:00:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > . . . On Iran policy, I favor the President doing exactly what he’s doing right now: sabotaging their program covertly, supporting sanctions, and if it comes to that, bombing them. “If it comes to that” contradicts “doing right now.” Obama is not “right now” bombing Iran “if it comes to that.” The mixture of time tenses could only be parsed by a time-traveller… And if you were a time-traveller, your predictions would be more accurate… As for bombing, what kind? The sites are pretty well hardened. Would anything other than a nuclear first strike really do the job? I suppose we could knock out their national electric grid: that might (or might not) interfere with their Uranium enrichment program. Is it a good idea? Is enriching Uranium a meaningful cause for an act of war? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/92 "2013-06-03T01:07:07Z")
**adaher** [here’s](http://www.usatodayeducate.com/staging/index.php/ccp/college-republicans-echo-findings-of-gop-autopsy) another take on that college Republican report. (I was trying to one with as positive of a spin on it as possible.) > [@](#): > > One challenge identified in the report is disconnect with younger voters on generational issues such as gay marriage. If Republicans cannot be welcoming to those they disagree with, the report says, minority voters will continue to shy away from associating with the party. > > Jaclyn Recchia, a recent alumna of Fairleigh Dickinson University in Teaneck, N.J., who volunteered at the Republican National Convention last August, said she’s personally seen what she calls “closed-mindedness” from Republicans. Though she says she agrees with conservative ideology on most issues — more than enough to call herself a Republican — just her liberal stance on gay marriage makes her feel “shunned.” > > “If you are not with them on every single thing, you feel like you don’t belong,” Recchia said. “It’s gotten to a point where it’s so far right, instead of coming closer to the middle. I’m not saying abandon what you believe, but you have to be open with people who line up differently on certain things.” Reagan’s success was “the big tent.” The current approach of many in the party, labelling anyone who does not agree completely with all of the farthest Right positions as a RINO, leaves them with pup tent at best, and it drives youth and heck, many middle aged folk, Latinos, and many others, who might otherwise agree with many of their positions, away. Rural White older males, even won overwhelmingly, is not enough to win a national election if you drive everyone else to the other side. ---
**Author:** ![Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimmy_Gibbler)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/93 "2013-06-03T01:20:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Exhibit B: Looks like we might also get a huge influx of angry young Europeans soon: > > Half of young French want to leave France, and many of them for tax reasons. Here’s one angry French youth’s letter to the President: > > [Hollande's France: About to Become the New Mexico? - The American Interest](http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/05/11/hollades-france-about-to-become-the-new-mexico/) > > I don’t want to work all my life in order to pay taxes that will, for the most part, only go to service the 1,900 billion euros of debt that your generation was kind enough to leave as your legacy. If these loans had at least been invested in a plan for the future of the country, if I thought I would profit a little from them, I wouldn’t have any problems repaying them. But they only allowed your generation to live above its means, to secure a generous welfare that I won’t be able to enjoy. In order to make your lives, I would say “cushy”, but I’m afraid that the word offends you. > > My work and my taxes will also have to pay your pension that you haven’t bothered to fund, as well as all the health care and welfare costs for all these elderly people who will be, in less than twenty years, the majority in the country. Will this leave me enough money to live well and raise my children? > > * * * > > Time for another round of “Bring me your huddled masses” from the old continent. OMG GUYS, THIS IS A DISASTER. If the Democrats lose the dissatisfied French youth vote, we could be in some SERIOUS shit!!! RELATED POINT: How do we get all the GOP malcontents to make like the French youth and undertake an imminent mass exodus to Somalia??? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/94 "2013-06-03T02:08:21Z")
The youth vote changes, as Dseid’s source shows. Obama’s candidacies drew an unusual coalition for Democrats. Given how the midterms and other off-year elections went, it seems likely that this coalition will not stick together for another candidate. The most recent election, in which Mark Sanford won, post-election analysts said, “Oh well, it’s a Republican district”. True enough, but pre-election the key was thought to be African-American turnout. The turnout didn’t happen because Obama wasn’t on the ballot. It also didn’t happen in Virginia or New Jersey in 2009, didn’t happen in Massachusetts in 2009(and likely won’t happen this month in MA either). And it sure as heck didn’t happen in 2010. As a matter of fact, youth and African-American turnout was horrible in 2010. [http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544\_162-20021551-503544.html](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021551-503544.html) The share of the voters who were young was HALF what it was with Obama not on the ballot, African-Americans turned out at 10% of the population instead of 13% in 2008. Is there any particular reason to believe that 2014, or even 2016, will be any different? Without Obama, the coalition is apathetic. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/95 "2013-06-03T02:09:56Z")
Funny as all hell; CNN article, Republican chairman saying the party is ‘open for repairs’ in response to McCain’s comments. First comment: “What is the point of voting for the Republicans when they ignored their entire Conservative base in the last election.” :eek: :smack: Ladies and Gentlemen, that is some weapons grade Derp. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/96 "2013-06-03T02:17:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > [Yahoo News: Latest and Breaking News, Headlines, Live Updates, and More](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-lost-2-4-million-young-voters-2012-161508263.html) > > Exhibit A in why I’m not worried about the future of the GOP, at least not because of demographic changes. > > Obama lost 2.4 million young voters between 2008 and 2012. If he loses another 2.4 million over the next four years, we have no worries. > > Exhibit B: Looks like we might also get a huge influx of angry young Europeans soon: > > Half of young French want to leave France, and many of them for tax reasons. Here’s one angry French youth’s letter to the President: > > [Hollande's France: About to Become the New Mexico? - The American Interest](http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/05/11/hollades-france-about-to-become-the-new-mexico/) > > I don’t want to work all my life in order to pay taxes that will, for the most part, only go to service the 1,900 billion euros of debt that your generation was kind enough to leave as your legacy. If these loans had at least been invested in a plan for the future of the country, if I thought I would profit a little from them, I wouldn’t have any problems repaying them. But they only allowed your generation to live above its means, to secure a generous welfare that I won’t be able to enjoy. In order to make your lives, I would say “cushy”, but I’m afraid that the word offends you. > > My work and my taxes will also have to pay your pension that you haven’t bothered to fund, as well as all the health care and welfare costs for all these elderly people who will be, in less than twenty years, the majority in the country. Will this leave me enough money to live well and raise my children? > > * * * > > Time for another round of “Bring me your huddled masses” from the old continent. Yes, French youth angry about mounting debt and underfunded pension liabilities will be _dying_ to come to America, where those issues don’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/97 "2013-06-03T02:21:09Z")
It’s a lot worse in France, where they tax rich people at 75% and still can’t balance their budget. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/98 "2013-06-03T02:30:25Z")
They haven’t actually taxed anyone at that rate yet. It was introduced for the 2013 fiscal year as part of the government’s new austerity program. Before that, France’s highest marginal rate was 44%. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/99 "2013-06-03T02:34:54Z")
Point is, given our debt ratio and tax burden, plus our very high defense spending, we can fix our deficit problem a lot easier than France or most other Western countries can. They already tax as much as they can, are heavily in debt, and don’t spend enough on defense to be able to get significant savings there. If it came down to an emergency, where people just stopped lending to us, we could fix our budget overnight simply by raising taxes to European levels and cutting defense down to European levels. Most EU countries have no plausible path to solvency in the near term. If things go tits up over there, we’ll see mass immigration from there again. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/100 "2013-06-03T02:58:12Z")
France spends 2.3% of GDP on defense. Less than us, but good enough for sixth in the world in absolute terms. As far as debt ratio goes, their debt is 10% less of GDP than ours. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=6)