# I get your skewed poll right here **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 1, 2013, 11:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855 "2013-06-01T11:36:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/101 "2013-06-03T03:08:29Z")
The difference between us and France is the stimulus. France is where they are due to structural problems, we just like stimulus and tanks. A habit which is easier to drop than a social welfare state. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/102 "2013-06-03T03:34:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The youth vote changes, as Dseid’s source shows … > Without Obama, the coalition is apathetic. As my sources show there is a new crop of youth vote every time round and once they have identified with a party they tend to mostly stick. Thus Reagan’s popularity with the youth of the early 80s has given strength to the GOP for decades. My source show that the youth advantage to the Democratic candidate in these last two cycles was unprecedented, much larger than Reagan’s was. Some will no doubt leak out as the cohort ages but probably no more than did Reagan’s cohort for the GOP. In any case you’ve shifted your argument some I see … now your reassurance stems from confidence that Obama’s magic will not pass on to the party in general or future national candidates, not that Obama lost so much support in 2012? My source also documents that youth vote turn out was, by historic standards, not absurdly high in 2008 and 2012, just better than the previous two had been. It was also pretty much average as far as [mid term turn out](http://www.civicyouth.org/youth-turnout-about-20-comparable-to-recent-midterm-years/) goes: > [@](#): > > Youth Turnout About 20%, Comparable to Recent Midterm Years Some [demographics](http://www.scribd.com/doc/41791839/Youth-Voters-2010-Exit-Poll-Fact-Sheet) of these youth voters in the 2010 mid term: > [@](#): > > Younger voters were more racially and ethnically diverse than the electorate as a whole.Amongyounger voters, 66% were white, 14% Black, 15% Hispanic, 3% Asian, and 2% “allothers” > 2 > Seven percent of younger voters said they were gay, lesbian, or bisexual, compared to 4% of all voters.(this last category includes Native Americans and those who choose to classifythemselves in any of the other categories). In contrast, among voters 30 and older, 80%were white, 10% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian, and 2% “all other.”Seventy-seven percent of the youth votes were cast by youth with college experience. Onlyabout 58% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 have college experience, so theyoung electorate was tilted toward college-educated people. In fact, preliminary estimatesby CIRCLE suggest that young people who have some college experience were more thantwice as likely to vote as their peers who have not been to college. This is consistent withCIRCLE’s past findings using both the NEP, National Exit Poll and the U.S. Census, Current Population Survey (CPS) data.Young voters had a different religious profile than other voters. Among voters as a whole,one third said they were Protestant, and one quarter, Catholic. Among older voters, 69%placed themselves in those two categories. But among younger voters, only 16% said theywere Protestant, and 22%, Catholic. The unusually large categories among younger voterswere “other Christian” (28%) and “none” (24%).Forty-three percent of younger voters said they had no land-line at home, compared to just four percent of older voters. > Unlike Older Voters, Majority of Young Voters Support the Democratic Party > Younger voters chose Democratic House candidates over Republican House candidates by amargin of 57%-40%. In contrast, all voters favored the Republicans by 52%-45% Support for Republicans rose with age. Over-60s voted Republican by 57%-41% (Figure 2). In Senate races, younger voters preferred the Democratic candidates by 55%-40%,compared to the 50%-44% Republican advantage among all voters That coalition seemed pretty much intact. To be sure a 17% spread to Democratic House candidates is not the same spread Obama got (although the youth advantage over the general population was a more whopping 24%). Same with the Senate’s 15% Democratic spread and 21% Democratic youth advantage. Pretty dang healthy and diverse without Obama on the ballot. I again request your take on how the GOP gets by their current “build a smaller tent” motiff. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/103 "2013-06-03T03:38:52Z")
They aren’t trying to build a smaller tent. Nor is that the argument made by those predicting demographic doom. Rather, they believe that the Republican party’s coalition will naturally shrink, as if it’s impossible to persuade new voters into the coalition. Obama brought a lot of new voters into the Democratic coalition. Many, or most, of those won’t stay Democrat past 2012. Republicans can accomplish the same feats. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/104 "2013-06-03T03:45:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans can accomplish the same feats. Not by continually attacking anyone who doesn’t toe the line of the rabidly insane right. Not by trying to drive people from the party who hold differing opinions. Right now the Republican party is consuming itself in a maelstrom of anger and derp. Until that illness runs it’s course, the Republicans are no longer a party of Governance. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/105 "2013-06-03T03:50:33Z")
And yet they govern in a majority of states. Think that will change in 2014? According to the going theory of what happened in 2010, the voters should be well over it and ready to throw out their Tea Party governors. Yet the only one who is truly threatened is Rick Scott in Florida, and then only if a former Republican governor who is more moderate runs against him. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/106 "2013-06-03T04:37:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And yet they govern in a majority of states. Gerrymandering and vote suppression. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/107 "2013-06-03T04:47:02Z")
Statewide elections are not gerrymandered, so I assume you mean that voter suppression will send Republican governors to victories in 2014? If that’s so, then the polls should show these governors trailing. Perhaps you think the polls will be skewed?🙂 ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/108 "2013-06-03T05:03:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yet the only one who is truly threatened is Rick Scott in Florida, and then only if a former Republican governor who is more moderate runs against him. A number have pretty shitty poll numbers. Just off the top of my head, Paul LePage in Maine is an embarrassment to the state, and looks [quite likely to lose as long as he only has one contender](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/paul-lepage/). Hell, it doesn’t even matter who the contender is, all the Democrats have to do is convince Eliott Cutler to stay the fuck out of the race this time, as he’s the reason for the damn mess in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/109 "2013-06-03T05:05:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Statewide elections are not gerrymandered . . . ??? I’m almost sure that isn’t true here in California. The Assembly and State Senate district boundaries are fine-tuned to protect incumbents…of both parties. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/110 "2013-06-03T05:09:15Z")
Rick Snyder, [also losing in a matchup with any Democrat](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/rick-snyder/). And for 2013, it looks as if Terry MacAuliffe [could actually win in Virginia](http://www.nbcwashington.com/blogs/first-read-dmv/Morning-Read-Poll-McAuliffe-Leads-Cuccinelli-By-5-209481841.html), despite having absolutely no appeal to anyone, as far as I can tell. ---
**Author:** ![Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Kimmy\_Gibbler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimmy_Gibbler)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/111 "2013-06-03T05:10:44Z")
> [@Eonwe](#): > > Wait, I’m confused . . . is the GOP position that we should be loosening up our immigration laws? > > Senor Obama, tear down la Gran Muralla! No, if **adaher** ’s position is typical for his party, their plan is “Hey! We got Wavy Gravy to vote for us 35 years ago, so why don’t we all just relax and wait for our ship to come in again!” I see no possible to downside to this plan and urge the the GOP to pursue it most assiduously. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/112 "2013-06-03T05:15:47Z")
I’m sure a couple will lose. But the GOP will still govern a majority of states. Unless I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/113 "2013-06-03T05:55:55Z")
Yeah, but what are the odds of _that?_ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/114 "2013-06-03T06:00:42Z")
Make your own prediction. If Chimera is right, then the Republicans are due for quite the spanking. They can weather the storm in the House through gerrymandering if that theory is right, but they can’t save their governors that way. Or win the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/115 "2013-06-03T06:11:33Z")
No, I meant of you being wrong. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/116 "2013-06-03T06:17:25Z")
When you make predictions, you are usually going to be wrong. I’m not afraid to be wrong. Are you? Go ahead, make a prediction. Chimera has by inference. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/117 "2013-06-03T06:36:23Z")
My prediction is that Americans will get a bit stupider before they get smarter and some significant fraction, probably around half, will continue to vote against their own best interests in 2014 and possibly 2016. After that, the best you can hope for is the oldest of the Baby Boomers die off faster than their growing medical expenses can bankrupt the country. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/118 "2013-06-03T06:49:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Chimera is right, then the Republicans are due for quite the spanking. They can weather the storm in the House through gerrymandering if that theory is right, but they can’t save their governors that way. Or win the Senate. I can’t speak for **Chimera** , but at the state-level, Republicans who are sane, sincere and working for the public interest are not uncommon. It is at the national level, especially in the gerrymandered House, that the GOP has become a tragic disappointment. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/119 "2013-06-03T07:01:52Z")
And that’s a good answer. Democrats have a better record of governing at the federal level than Republicans. The reverse is true at the state level. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2013, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855/120 "2013-06-03T11:26:35Z")
First off kudos for quite an admission there: “Democrats have a better record of governing at the federal level than Republicans.” State level politics and national office are different beasts. Many of the states with Republican governors are from deeply red states. Some of those have horrible approval ratings and are unlikely to win again. But staying on topic, the shrinking of the tent, not as something they are trying to do but something they _are_ doing by allowing the most extreme elements to define who are a is a true Republican, is the reason I will go out on a limb and predict that there will no major GOP inroads with the youth vote and that the last two elections’ youth will not move over to the GOP side in any signicant numbers as they age out of that cohort. I do not believe it is impossible for the GOP to pull youth and minorities into their coalition. I believe that doing so requires a tolerence of diversity and an agreement to have no litmus tests. I see no evidence that the GOP is going to pul that off any time soon and no evidence that those demographic elements are going to not vote Democratic at a national level when Obama is not on the ticket (again, see the actual numbers from the mid term elections). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-get-your-skewed-poll-right-here/659855.md?page=7)