# I Pit 53% of Republicans **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [February 3, 2010, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585 "2010-02-03T21:09:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Alienhand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8edcca/32.png) [@Alienhand](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alienhand)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/41 "2010-02-04T00:14:49Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > Nate Silver over at 538 has enough trust in the poll to draw some conclusions from the poll. They aren’t the conclusions that this thread is focusing on, but he’s a guy who knows his polls. > > [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/mcgop-virtues-and-vices-of-sameness.html](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/mcgop-virtues-and-vices-of-sameness.html) Mark Blumenthal has a [slightly critical view](http://www.pollster.com/blogs/acquiescence_bias_more_on_the.php) of the poll mainly focusing around skew caused by the more inflammatory questions. In the end he does concede that the method is still normal practice. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/42 "2010-02-04T00:17:46Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > You’ve obviously never studied a thing about scientific polling, but if you’re really convinced they’re such bullshit, then why do you think politicians (not to mention companies doing market research) spend so much money and time on them? And why are they so accurate at predicting results? You do realize, don’t you, that you are attempting to have an intelligent exchange with a monkey with a gun? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_fun_ball/32/17664_2.png) [@Happy\_Fun\_Ball](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Fun_Ball)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/43 "2010-02-04T00:20:29Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Maybe you thought that way, but what about the many, many posters on this board who didn’t? > [@Ludovic](#): > > Many many posters on this board thought W wanted the terrorists to win? Cite? Another fun poll [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=550679). Let’s see what people think. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/44 "2010-02-04T00:29:09Z")
> [@The\_Second\_Stone](#): > > You do realize, don’t you, that you are attempting to have an intelligent exchange with a monkey with a gun? Hey! If that’s a reference about my user name, that’s fair game. But if you mean that I don’t have a debatable point, fuck off. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/45 "2010-02-04T01:33:28Z")
> [@A Monkey With a Gun](#): > > It is not my responsibility to "prove’ it. Bullshit. **You** made the statement that there was “no way in hell that was a good sample or an unbiased survey” , and this was based entirely on the fact that the survey was commissioned by liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas. **Commissioned** mind you, not conducted. I say that your statement is crap. It is idiotic. You DO need to prove that this was a biased survey. Then you can go on to prove that it was biased because of who commissioned it. (hint: your “gut” feelings about the worth of surveys do not count as evidence) It is certainly not up to anyone else to prove the negative of your proposition for you. Especially since you have shown to have little knowledge about basic statistic, let alone how surveys are conducted. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/46 "2010-02-04T01:39:09Z")
Interesting- for all the Obama hatred out there among Republicans, less than half of them think Obama should be impeached. Even among Republican men, or Republicans in the south, impeachment isn’t the majority view. Seems incongruous with the rest of their views. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/47 "2010-02-04T01:45:21Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > **You** made the statement that there was “no way in hell that was a good sample or an unbiased survey” , and this was based entirely on the fact that the survey was commissioned by liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas. **Commissioned** mind you, not conducted. The confidence interval is 95%. IOW, about one chance in twenty that the results were within 2% of what they claim. All Daily Kos needs to do is run two or three of these every month, publicize the ones they want to, and drop the rest. _:shrugs:_ This kind of crap thinking from a board that had a collective shit fit over the exit polls in 2004. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/48 "2010-02-04T01:47:59Z")
**Euphonious Polemic** , the burden of proof is on **Jman**. Call me a skeptic, but I do not believe that the great white hunter in heels is viewed by Republicans as a viable alternative. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/49 "2010-02-04T01:50:01Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The confidence interval is 95%. IOW, about one chance in twenty that the results were within 2% of what they claim. All Daily Kos needs to do is run two or three of these every month, publicize the ones they want to, and drop the rest. You’re correct. That kind of thing would absolutely show that the survey was biased, and we should all be disgusted with an organization that would do this. So you’ve shown that hypothetically the survey could have been biased. Now, is there evidence that it was? Anything? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/50 "2010-02-04T01:51:16Z")
> [@A Monkey With a Gun](#): > > My point was most polls are bullshit, biased, and meaningless. > > Or maybe Dewey really _did_ defeat Truman. You just proved your ignorance on this subject. That headline had nothing to do with polling. The story is [here.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman) That mistake was mostly due to an extremely conservative paper relying on an expert who usually got it right but got it wrong this time. The thing you were fumbling for was the Literary Digest poll which had Landon defeating FDR. Its mistake was that it was conducted by telephone, and at the time telephone owners were richer, and thus more Republican, than the average American. I think it is fair to say that real pollsters don’t make that mistake anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/51 "2010-02-04T01:59:11Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > The confidence interval is 95%. IOW, about one chance in twenty that the results were within 2% of what they claim. All Daily Kos needs to do is run two or three of these every month, publicize the ones they want to, and drop the rest. > > _:shrugs:_ > > This kind of crap thinking from a board that had a collective shit fit over the exit polls in 2004. > > Regards, > Shodan WTF are you talking about? A confidence interval of 95% would mean that there is probably a 95% probability that the results are within 95% of the correct one - in other words the poll means nothing. What they really said that there is a 95% probability that the results are within 2% of the real value that the sample is trying to capture. Thus, if you ran it 20 times there is a .95 \*\* 20 chance that the results won’t be in that range. Could those of you who know nothing about sampling theory stop splattering your ignorance all over the board please? ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/52 "2010-02-04T02:02:57Z")
**Voyager** , it was just a bad metaphor. And you’re right, it doesn’t really hold. But screw the metaphor, my points still hold. Address those. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/53 "2010-02-04T02:10:59Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Could those of you who know nothing about sampling theory stop splattering your ignorance all over the board please? Like I said to **Diogenes** , I don’t think you know a damn thing about surveys: Please answer: Q: In regards to health care for children, a mother would know more than a politician. 1.) strongly agree 2.) agree 3.) no opinion 4.) disaggre 5.) strongly disagree Surveys can be biased, don’t believe them. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/54 "2010-02-04T02:13:23Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > WTF are you talking about? A confidence interval of 95% would mean that there is probably a 95% probability that the results are within 95% of the correct one - in other words the poll means nothing. What they really said that there is a 95% probability that the results are within 2% of the real value that the sample is trying to capture. Thus, if you ran it 20 times there is a .95 \*\* 20 chance that the results won’t be in that range. > > Could those of you who know nothing about sampling theory stop splattering your ignorance all over the board please? If Shodan didn’t talk when he didn’t understand something we’d never see him. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/55 "2010-02-04T02:15:47Z")
It wasn’t a survey, it was a poll, and unless you’re going to show exactly how the methodology was flawed or “biased,” (and for what motive), then you just sound like an arm waving moron. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/56 "2010-02-04T02:18:55Z")
Jesus Christ, **Shodan** , did you ever take a high school math class? Who taught you that 95% = 1 in 20? Were you homeschooled or something? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/57 "2010-02-04T02:19:41Z")
> [@A Monkey With a Gun](#): > > Like I said to **Diogenes** , I don’t think you know a damn thing about surveys: Please answer: > > Q: In regards to health care for children, a mother would know more than a politician. > > 1.) strongly agree > 2.) agree > 3.) no opinion > 4.) disaggre > 5.) strongly disagree > Surveys can be biased, don’t believe them. Put down the gun, Monkey. We came here to talk! These are the questions: QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections wll you definitely vote, vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote? QUESTION: If the 2012 Primary for President were held today, which of the following would you vote for?: QUESTION: Should Barack Obama be impeached, or not? QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not? QUESTION: Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist? QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win? QUESTION: Do you believe ACORN stole the 2008 election? QUESTION: Do you believe Sarah Palin is more qualified to be President than Barack Obama? QUESTION: Do you believe Barack Obama is a racist who hates White people? QUESTION: Do you believe your state should secede from the United States? QUESTION: Should Congress make it easier for workers to form and join labor unions? QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose giving illegal immigrants now living in the United States the right to live here legally if they pay a fine and learn English? QUESTION: Should openly gay men and women be allowed to serve in the military? QUESTION: Should same sex couples be allowed to marry? QUESTION: Should gay couples receive any state or federal benefits? QUESTION: Should openly gay men and women be allowed to teach in public schools? QUESTION: Should sex education be taught in the public schools? QUESTION: Should public school students be taught that the book of Genesis in the Bible explains how God created the world? QUESTION: Are marriages equal partnerships, or are men the leaders of their households? QUESTION: Should contraceptive use be outlawed? QUESTION: Do you believe the birth control pill is abortion? QUESTION: Do you consider abortion to be murder? QUESTION: Do you support the death penalty? QUESTION: Should women work outside the home? QUESTION: Do you believe that the only way for an individual to go to heaven is though Jesus Christ, or can one make it to heaven through another faith? From Here: [http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/31/US/437](http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/1/31/US/437) Care to tell us which of these are biased questions? ---
**Author:** ![Jman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jman/32/4416_2.png) [@Jman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jman)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/58 "2010-02-04T02:35:11Z")
> [@A Monkey With a Gun](#): > > **Euphonious Polemic** , the burden of proof is on **Jman**. Call me a skeptic, but I do not believe that the great white hunter in heels is viewed by Republicans as a viable alternative. What the fuck? I’m not trying to prove the poll right or anything. I’m reacting to its results. Do you seriously not see the difference? Your entire argument is ‘can’t you see it’s biased?’ That’s all you’ve got? And I’m the ignorant one? You sound like an ass. Give me a reasoned argument, and I’ll entertain it; for now, you sound like an idiot. The burden of proof is on the pollsters…they’ve shown their methodology, and it’s sound. Unless you have anything to show how their methodology is faulty, you’re just spewing random shit. Put up or shut the fuck up. ---
**Author:** ![armedmonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@armedmonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/armedmonkey)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/59 "2010-02-04T02:38:31Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Care to tell us which of these are biased questions? Fucking hell man, do I have to point this out to you? The _third_ question is whether not Obama should be impeached, and then the next four are not even close to random. “Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not? Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist? Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win? Do you believe ACORN stole the 2008 election?” Fucking Hell. That is _not_ how you design a unbiased questionaire. ---
**Author:** ![Jman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jman/32/4416_2.png) [@Jman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jman)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2010, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585/60 "2010-02-04T02:40:57Z")
> [@A Monkey With a Gun](#): > > Fucking hell man, do I have to point this out to you? The _third_ question is whether not Obama should be impeached, and then the next four are not even close to random. “Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not? Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist? Do you believe Barack Obama wants the terrorists to win? Do you believe ACORN stole the 2008 election?” > > Fucking Hell. That is _not_ how you design a unbiased questionaire. Then how do you? None of those questions are worded ambiguously. None of them are worded in a manner that would cause someone to answer one way when they really meant the opposite. THOSE are misleading polls. This is about as straightforward as it gets. Ask me those questions, and it’s a pretty damn easy " No, Yes, No, No, No. " What’s so hard about that? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-pit-53-of-republicans/527585.md?page=4)