you put in your location and click ‘remember me’ and your local weather will always then come up. you can click on your exact location (like what part of what county) on the part-of-a-state local map for a detailed forecast. there is tons of information on that page.
if you then click on ‘HOURLY WEATHER GRAPH’ on the right side you get a graphical plot showing the time of day (for about 3 days very detailed and for 5 days less detailed) what the values are by the hour for Temperature, Dewpoint, Wind Chill, Surface Wind, wind gusts, Sky Coverage, Precipitation Potential, Relative Humidity, Thunder, Rain, Snow, Freezing Rain, Sleet. you will see the hours when precipitation might occur and the amounts during that time period. this make outdoor planning for work, travel and play much easier.
also on the page for your local area you will find any warnings and watches for you, there is also satellite and radar images.
I have noticed something in our local weather, but never equated it to ratings like you did, but it makes sense. It seems like when snow is likely, the local weather reports almost always report it as both sooner and heavier than it ends up being. So if they say snow starting in the morning and 3-6" of accumulation, it usually ends up being 1-2" in the afternoon.
Which I guess matches your second point, in that’s it’s better that people be more prepared than less.
the National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does tend to be conservative in their reports, they will give the forecast to include the maximum weather event likely. with better technology and more data input they do get more localized.
with weather radios (special radio that gets continuous forecasts and conditions for your local area from the National Weather Service) which you can have silent except for when an alarm signal is sent and then they will turn the sound and sound the alarm (loud enough to wake you if it’s a good radio). the warnings that will trigger an alarm are: Tornado Warning,Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Flash Flood Warning, Tornado Watch, Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Hurricane Watch, Hurricane Warning and National Emergency. you put in a location code (in modern weather radios equipped for it) that will be for your county or fraction of a county (i’m talking average civilized people sized counties, not those cowboy sized counties in some of the western sates). the alarm will then only trigger for your smaller specific area.
I would rather look at the radar map and decide for myself. Of course there are only 2 options in my area; raining or about to rain. If it isn’t currently raining I can make a pretty good estimate of how long I have before it starts raining. I check the radar in the summer before I go out to mow the lawn, if I see a big green blob headed my way I stay in the garage and drink beer instead.
The local TV weather is all about sensationalism. Pretty young reporter standing on an overpass rubbing the ground with her foot hoping for ice or the first snowflake. Pretty young reporter standing on the beach leaning into the wind. Pretty young reporter being treated for pneumonia from standing in the wind and rain, etc.
They’re using extremely complex computer models based on 100+ years of fairly detailed and meticulous weather observations to try and forecast the weather.
So what the 20% chance of rain means is that when the observable conditions are like they are currently, it will rain 1 time in 5 for wherever it is that they’re getting the current conditions from.
That’s also why past 3 days, the forecasts are as much voodoo as anything else- it doesn’t work well to fuse present conditions to forecast much beyond that, and at that point, they’re just guesstimating that some front in the Pacific NW will have made it to Texas by Sunday (yesterday’s Dallas forecast if you looked at Sunday) and that it might rain because of some other macro-scale things going on.
I’m sure they interpolate using all the official sources (usu. airports) in the area as well, so that if you live between Love Field and Addison Airport and you put your address into nws.noaa.gov, you’ll get a slightly different forecast than either.
when you go to the National Weather Service maps and click on a spot it will give you forecast information for that location (it will even tell you that you clicked on a spot 6 miles NNE of Anytown, Yourstate). it does give a localized forecast for that spot, it will also give you current conditions for a weather station (weather bureau or airport) closest to that spot.
I like the data options on their interactive map. I like to look at the model data along with radar and satellite info to draw my conclusions. Their actual forecasts seem pretty good, though, and the forecast section includes a button for showing 6-hour snow amounts. (And, of course, you can step the time forward with a slider, if you need to know farther out.)
As Venus is moving into retrograde, I’d advise investing in lollipops and avoiding the Prussic acid hail. Also, you will likely have an encounter with an old friend you haven’t spoken to for some time.