# I predict that Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 US Presidential election

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [February 25, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507 "2020-02-25T18:34:57Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/1 "2020-02-25T18:34:57Z")

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Not much more to say; IMO Bernie’s gonna win. I’ll predict at least a 4% spread, too, but I think it’ll be likely more than that.

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**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/2 "2020-02-25T18:37:45Z")

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Gotta get there first, eh, Bo? 😉

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**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/3 "2020-02-25T18:46:14Z")

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Being that starting a thread about it is a bold statement indeed, I will not try and pretend that I [got there first](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22155909&postcount=3). 🙂 But I too believe Bernie will win, _assuming_ he gets the nomination, a step I am not 100% prepared to believe will happen as of now.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/4 "2020-02-25T19:00:43Z")

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Do I have to start a new thread saying I predict he will lose or do I just post it here?

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/5 "2020-02-25T19:01:09Z")

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I like the optimism!

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**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/6 "2020-02-25T19:01:57Z")

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And I hereby predict that Sanders will not win the election. In fact, if he is the Dem nominee, I predict Trump wins another term.

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**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/7 "2020-02-25T19:05:03Z")

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Well, gee, with a 4% spread there’s no need for me to bother voting. Confidently predicting who will win is what got us Trump in the first place.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/8 "2020-02-25T19:09:57Z")

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It’s the most economical prediction. The D’s are favored to beat the R’s, and Sanders is the leading (D), ergo, Sanders is favored to win the presidency.

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/9 "2020-02-25T19:12:23Z")

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I can comfortably predict that whoever is the nominee for the Democratic Party will win in my state. Now I just have to find someone who will take the bet…

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**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/10 "2020-02-25T19:13:54Z")

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He could win by 4% and still lose the electoral college. Which is actually what I think will happen.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/11 "2020-02-25T19:14:59Z")

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I’ve [gone on record](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22157096&postcount=72) with my prediction:

> [@](#):
>
> Hillary Clinton got three million votes more than Donald Trump got in 2016 and lost in the EC vote. I predict that Sanders will get at least three million votes less than Donald Trump and will get fewer EC votes than Clinton got.
> 
> I’m not happy about this. I really don’t want to see four more years of Trump as President.

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**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/12 "2020-02-25T19:19:05Z")

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I predict that Bloomberg will run the best funded third party campain since Perot, and Trump will win with \< 40% of the vote. My predictions are always wrong, but if I’m right it will be dead impressive.

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/13 "2020-02-25T19:39:37Z")

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Bernie Sanders would have beaten Trump in 2016. He will be the nominee this year. He will beat him in this election.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/14 "2020-02-25T19:59:44Z")

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The only way Sanders has a chance is if Putin releases the pee-pee tapes; it still wouldn’t be a sure thing. But, as much as Putin would love the chaos of a Sanders Presidency, he’d prefer to get another 4 years of blackmailing his Orange Puppet.

What are the rules here? If I become a paid-up Member will I be allowed to solicit bets in _Marketplace_?

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/15 "2020-02-25T20:05:26Z")

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> [@blindboyard](#):
>
> I predict that Bloomberg will run the best funded third party campain since Perot, and Trump will win with \< 40% of the vote. My predictions are always wrong, but if I’m right it will be dead impressive.

I agree with you. Your predictions are wrong.

My feelings are that Bloomberg is sincere. He believes the most important thing is to beat Trump. He believes he is the best one to do it but he knows he won’t be able to as a 3rd party candidate. If he did he wouldn’t have tried to get the Democratic nomination. He would have gone in as a third party nominee from the beginning

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/16 "2020-02-25T20:07:52Z")

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Boy, I hate to rain on this parade but [this article has me worried.](https://www.politicususa.com/2020/02/25/sanders-swing-voters-miracle.html)

> [@](#):
>
> We found that nominating Sanders would drive many Americans who would otherwise vote for a moderate Democrat to vote for Trump, especially otherwise Trump-skeptical Republicans. Republicans are more likely to say they would vote for Trump if Sanders is nominated: Approximately 2 percent of Republicans choose Trump over Sanders, but desert Trump when we pit him against a more moderate Democrat like Buttigieg, Biden, or Bloomberg.
> 
> Sanders’s electability case requires this 11 percentage point turnout increase among young voters in 2020 to occur on top of any turnout increase that would otherwise occur if another Democrat were nominated.

I feel like Republicans did in 2016 when they saw the nomination going to someone they didn’t think could win. But then again, DJT didn’t have a socialist label attached to him.

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**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/17 "2020-02-25T20:11:59Z")

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On this planet?

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/18 "2020-02-25T20:14:02Z")

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> [@Loach](#):
>
> Do I have to start a new thread saying I predict he will lose or do I just post it here?

No shit. There’s another thread at the very top of the forum specifically titled “Do you believe that Bernie will beat Trump?”

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**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/19 "2020-02-25T20:31:53Z")

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> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#):
>
> Bernie Sanders would have beaten Trump in 2016. He will be the nominee this year. He will beat him in this election.

I think you’re wrong on both accounts

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**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\
**Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election/848507/20 "2020-02-25T20:35:52Z")

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> [@dalej42](#):
>
> I think you’re wrong on both accounts

There are three.

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