# I predict that Donald Trump is going to win the election for POTUS this year. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 3, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810 "2016-03-03T05:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/222 "2016-05-07T07:40:12Z")
> [@don\_t\_ask](#): > > I like the fact that he explains how he thinks all the events of the campaign will pan out and bases it on his understanding of persuasion. He has invariably been proved correct. He often refers to what he calls the 2D world of logic and reason and the 3D world of persuasion and explains why he feels persuasion wins. Now having read his pieces for months many of his recent criticisms are obvious to me. And it is interesting how all of Clinton’s recent moves seem like errors. I’m not impressed by Adams. [And smarter people than me noted how he is not letting evidence get in his way to his opinions.](http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/01/30/will-scott-adams-never-learn/) In this subject Addams is beginning to look as if he is ignoring the fourth dimension. At the same time he is claiming that Clinton is making what for him are errors he is refusing to see how the whole electoral voting public is seeing what Trump is doing and most are not being impressed, Scott Adams is still mainly looking at the action in the Republican sandbox and not at the whole electorate where most of the mistakes that are being noted are being seen as coming from Trump, because IMHO there is very little else to explain why the aggregate polls in recent days saw Clinton increasing her lead over Trump by 5 points. (and Clinton has been in the past ahead of Trump by 3 points in ages) > [@don\_t\_ask](#): > > I still can’t convince myself Trump will win but it is really hard to doubt Adam’s view of what is happening and I’ll follow along with interest. Oh it is not hard, as one of my favorite free tinkers and biologist PZ Myers continues to note: > **[Scott Adams, master of ignorance](https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2015/11/21/scott-adams-master-of-ignorance/)** > > I used to regularly take slaps at Scott Adams, but it got old — he’s so imperturbably stupid that it seemed mostly pointless. He thinks he already knows everything, so he’ll never… > [@](#): > > I used to regularly take slaps at Scott Adams, but it got old — he’s so imperturbably stupid that it seemed mostly pointless. He thinks he already knows everything, so he’ll never learn. Either that or he’ll talk to himself in a series of positive affirmations to confirm that he’s right anyway… > [@](#): > > But he saves his oblivious best for last. He has a solution to Islamist terrorism! It’s so simple, he thinks. All we have to do is tell all those young men with guns and bombs this simple promise: > > [QUOTE=Scott Adams] > > ``` > If you kill infidels, you will be rewarded with virgins in heaven. But if you kill your own leaders today – the ones holding the leash on your balls – you can have access to women tomorrow. And tomorrow is sooner. > > ``` Because those terrorists are all simply sexually frustrated? That’s so wrong and so silly, but it’s the foundation for his whole solution. And say…who is Scott Adams to tell Middle Eastern men that he can give them “access to women”? Does he think he’s holding the leashes on women everywhere? There’s an awful lot of similarity between Scott Adams and fundamentalist fanatics who think they’re the ones in charge of dispensing sexual favors. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 8:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/223 "2016-05-07T08:07:46Z")
So your argument is that one guy that you represent as both “smarter people” than you and himself, criticizing something completely different invalidates Adams opinions about the elections. Fair enough. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/224 "2016-05-07T08:19:09Z")
I think it’s cute how many people seem to think their Facebook feeds are indicative of anything. Do a Google search for electoral Maps and show me what states Donald Trump is going to win. Democrats have won 19 states and Washington DC every year the past six elections. Win those and all Hillary needs is Florida. It’s demographics and it’s math. Neither one is a friend to the GOP. Sent from my SPH-L720T using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 8:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/225 "2016-05-07T08:28:57Z")
> [@don\_t\_ask](#): > > So your argument is that one guy that you represent as both “smarter people” than you and himself, criticizing something completely different invalidates Adams opinions about the elections. Fair enough. :rolleyes: Read it again, you seen to have missed the second paragraph were I point at how flawed his view of how a genius Trump is, good for the Republican Sandbox while at the same time Trump is losing most of the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2016, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/226 "2016-05-07T08:38:28Z")
I ran out of edit time; I was going to say also that Trump “genius” may be good for the Republican Sandbox but at the same time Trump is losing most of the electorate. That huge blind spot by Adams regarding the issue only leads one to dismiss his opinion. Seeing how I can see how underwhelming Scott Adams is on this issue it is then pertinent to look if Scott Addams deserves attention, and it is clear that his crank magnetism a strong one (and his creationism points to that too), so he is good for cartooning, but not good to rely on his musings outside of his area of expertise. ---
**Author:** ![Sputnikkk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Sputnikkk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sputnikkk)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/227 "2016-05-09T11:35:13Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I think it’s cute how many people seem to think their Facebook feeds are indicative of anything. > > Do a Google search for electoral Maps and show me what states Donald Trump is going to win. > > Democrats have won 19 states and Washington DC every year the past six elections. Win those and all Hillary needs is Florida. > > It’s demographics and it’s math. Neither one is a friend to the GOP. > > Sent from my SPH-L720T using Tapatalk Agree, demographics, electoral maps, ratio of democrat voters to republican voters, hispanics, and blacks, all give Hillary the lead. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/228 "2016-05-09T11:41:39Z")
It would certainly be useful to put more specifics in the discussion at this point. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/229 "2016-05-09T11:56:33Z")
I think Hillary should win, but Donald can make this race a lot more interesting than people might think at the moment. His blistering attacks on Hillary will probably soften some of the conservative resentment working against him. The conservatives are bent that Donald Trump crushed the establishment and that he’s not an ideological conservative. But if there’s one thing that Trump repeatedly proved time and time again over the past year, it’s that he knows how to stir passions and voter energy, whether it’s good or bad. He is a master at getting attention and drawing interest in an otherwise dormant crowd. There are a lot - I mean a lot - of voters who hate the Clintons. There are some on the right who almost literally associate the Clintons with the coming of the antichrist. And we have seen that Trump can actually do well with evangelical and religious voters and voters of different stripes. I think that once Trump starts going aggressively after Hillary, once he uses his rhetoric to torch the Clintons and the Democrats, he could very well ignite some of those who are right now convinced they couldn’t consider him. It’s almost like a pheromonal reaction. Like the sting of a single killer bee that starts whipping up frenzy of the hive. And here’s the thing: if enough voters start coming out in support of Trump, then the republican establishment will want to avoid the perception that they’re on the fence and not doing their part to attack the Clintons. There will be pressure on them to attack and support Trump. Right now that’s nearly impossible to imagine, but the attacks on Clinton have just started and I think they’re going to get vicious. Trump will back away from the broadsides aimed at demographics like women and minorities and instead focus on the Clintons themselves. The key here is whether the voters respond to it. If voters start showing signs that they’re responding to the attacks on Clintons, watch out. If Trump keeps attacking and the polls remain flat, then the game is over before it starts. But if Trump can rattle Clinton, he’s going to hard to counter-attack. Maybe the Trump University scandal comes back to haunt the Donald, but that’s not an issue at present. Will be interesting to watch. ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/230 "2016-05-09T12:41:39Z")
It seems to me like all she has to do, at this point, is take the high road, refuse to mudsling like him. To stand, point and say, “This, is not what Americans are. We are better than this.” If she stood firm on this position, I don’t think she could lose. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/231 "2016-05-09T13:01:21Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Trump caught ‘establishment’ conservatives by surprise too. This is the Pauline Kael phenomenon, who famously said, “I don’t know how Nixon got elected: No one I know voted for him.” Apologies for the hijack, but while she “famously” said that, [she **actually** didn’t](http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2012/10/The-Fraudulent-Factoid-That-Refuses-to-Die). > [@](#): > > The real quote comes from a speech Kael delivered at the Modern Language Association, on Dec. 28, 1972, as cited by the New York Times (Via Wikipedia): > > “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.” > > Rather than showing out-of-touch insularity on Kael’s part, the quote actually shows Kael is perfectly aware of that insularity and is in fact making light of it. It also shows she’s perfectly aware that there are people out there in the world who don’t share her views, as if she hadn’t yet gleaned that when she was 53 years old in 1972. Or for that matter in the previous election, which was also won by Nixon. Much like “You didn’t build that” or “What difference does it make?”, the mutilated Kael quote persists because it allows those in certain right-wing circles to portray Democrats as out of touch or uncaring, despite the purported meaning being the opposite of the actual original meaning when quoted correctly and in context. Note that I’m not accusing **Sam** of anything more than repeating a common urban legend, but I wanted to nip this one in the bud. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/232 "2016-05-09T16:28:06Z")
if his party would get behind him, he’d def have a chance, but they’re clearly trying to sabotage him, deliberately. It also doesn’t help that [Max Boot](http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-republicans-in-exile-20160508-story.html) just endorsed Hillary. I respect Boot, so I’ll listen to him, look past some of Obama’s big time foreign policy fails, and probably vote Hillary. This election is gonna be fun; its basically Tyson (Trump) vs. Ali (the Clintons). ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/233 "2016-05-09T16:32:13Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > if his party would get behind him, he’d def have a chance, but they’re clearly trying to sabotage him, deliberately. It also doesn’t help that [Max Boot](http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-republicans-in-exile-20160508-story.html) just endorsed Hillary. I respect Boot, so I’ll listen to him, look past some of Obama’s big time foreign policy fails, and probably vote Hillary. > This election is gonna be fun; its basically Tyson (Trump) vs. Ali (the Clintons). I don’t know of any big time Obama foreign policy fails. Libya would have been a disaster no matter what the US did or didn’t do. Not continually verbally fellating Netanyahu is only a fail if you’re a Republican. Trump vs Clinton is more like Don Knotts v Mr. T. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/234 "2016-05-09T16:55:46Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Not continually verbally fellating Netanyahu is only a fail if you’re a Republican. there’s a reason Hillary has been much friendlier to Netanyahu than Obama, and hitting Trump’s “neutrality,” despite too many progressives. I’ve said [why](http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b9hijypcf0sx_p3h9lq6qa.png) before. And its not just to not to just please Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/235 "2016-05-09T16:59:22Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > there’s a reason Hillary has been much friendlier to Netanyahu than Obama, and hitting Trump’s “neutrality,” despite too many progressives. I’ve said [why](http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b9hijypcf0sx_p3h9lq6qa.png) before. And its not just to not to just please Republicans. There’s a difference between “generally sympathetic to Israel” and “belief in the infallibility of Israel and Netanyahu”. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/236 "2016-05-09T17:07:03Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > This election is gonna be fun; its basically Tyson (Trump) vs. Ali (the Clintons). I believe there will only be one Clinton on the ballot, right? Or do they plan to co-rule, like William & Mary? /s ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/237 "2016-05-09T20:50:52Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I don’t know of any big time Obama foreign policy fails. Libya would have been a disaster no matter what the US did or didn’t do. Not continually verbally fellating Netanyahu is only a fail if you’re a Republican. > > Trump vs Clinton is more like Don Knotts v Mr. T. QFT. I apologize to pessimists like Mr. **Truthseeker** whose overall sentiments may be valid even when details are flawed. It doesn’t seem unlikely that the next 5 to 10 years hold a disaster comparable or worse than those under Mr. Bush-43. Our grandchildren will know that Obama was one of the great Presidents — a beacon of intelligence in an era where disaster was the norm. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/238 "2016-05-09T21:10:32Z")
> [@Sputnikkk](#): > > Agree, demographics, electoral maps, ratio of democrat voters to republican voters, hispanics, and blacks, all give Hillary the lead. And don’t these same things predict that currently we should have a Democratically controlled House and a Democratically controlled Senate? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/239 "2016-05-09T21:42:26Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > if his party would get behind him, he’d def have a chance, but they’re clearly trying to sabotage him, deliberately. It also doesn’t help that [Max Boot](http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-republicans-in-exile-20160508-story.html) just endorsed Hillary. I respect Boot, so I’ll listen to him, look past some of Obama’s big time foreign policy fails, and probably vote Hillary. Whoa, Max Boot really lets Trump have it: > [@](#): > > Trump is an ignorant demagogue who traffics in racist and misogynistic slurs and crazy conspiracy theories. He champions protectionism and isolationism — the policies that brought us the Great Depression and World War II. He wants to undertake a police-state roundup of undocumented immigrants and to bar Muslims from coming to this country. He encourages his followers to assault protesters and threatens to sue or smear critics. He would abandon Japan and South Korea and break up the most successful alliance in history — NATO. But he has kind words for tyrants such as Vladimir Putin. > > The risk of Trump winning, however remote, represents the biggest national security threat that the United States faces today. > > There has never been a major party nominee in U.S. history as unqualified for the presidency. The risk of Trump winning, however remote, represents the biggest national security threat that the United States faces today. > > But if I’m not for Trump, who am I for? > > Hillary Clinton is a centrist Democrat who is more hawkish than President Obama and far more principled and knowledgeable about foreign affairs than Trump, who is too unstable and erratic to be entrusted with the nuclear triad he has never heard of. Even in his prepared foreign policy speech couldn’t pronounce “Tanzania.” For all her shortcomings (and there are many), Clinton would be far preferable to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/240 "2016-05-09T21:45:20Z")
There are a couple of assumptions I’ve seen made in threads like this that I’m skeptical about: 1. That by winning the nomination, Trump has shown he is bulletproof; he can do and say anything and not harm himself in November. 2. That he is capable of successfully becoming an entirely different person, or have an entirely different image, in the next seven months. I’m not saying either is false or impossible outright, but several posts I’ve seen take either or both as a given, and I just don’t see it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2016, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/241 "2016-05-09T23:08:23Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > There are a couple of assumptions I’ve seen made in threads like this that I’m skeptical about: > > 1. That by winning the nomination, Trump has shown he is bulletproof; he can do and say anything and not harm himself in November. > > 2. That he is capable of successfully becoming an entirely different person, or have an entirely different image, in the next seven months. > > I’m not saying either is false or impossible outright, but several posts I’ve seen take either or both as a given, and I just don’t see it. I agree, I have pointed at the aggregated polls of Clinton vs Trump many times before and many ignore what is showing. [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary) [http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) While Trump was beginning to get Republican support higher than 40% in February, at the same time Trump began to falter in the polls against Clinton among the whole public and electorate, for months Clinton was consistently ahead of Trump 1 to 3 points; in February things began to change in favor of Clinton and now Clinton is ahead 5 to 7 points. (it would be higher if Rasmussen was not falling for what it looks as its usual Republican bias that they have) IMHO while one can claim that Trump is a genius in the Republican sandbox, the majority in the playground was not impressed by him, and he is less so now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=13)