# I predict that Donald Trump is going to win the election for POTUS this year. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 3, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810 "2016-03-03T05:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/262 "2016-11-09T07:44:29Z")
He brought up a thread that was dead for weeks just to post “I was right” at a time when everyone is reeling from the damage that was just done to our country. If that wasn’t gloating, what is? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/263 "2016-11-09T07:49:40Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > He brought up a thread that was dead for weeks just to post “I was right” at a time when everyone is reeling from the damage that was just done to our country. If that wasn’t gloating, what is? Eh, it was right to remind us of this thread. Some self-serving there, sure, but also helps us reflect on what truths or trends we were missing, dismissing, or overlooking. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/264 "2016-11-09T07:51:00Z")
Yup, it’s a dick move. Similarly, the Hillary-hating left winger on my Facebook feed who gleefully took the opportunity to exclaim “Warren 2020!” A few of his friends got irate about that one. > [@SenorBeef](#): > > You must be fucking thrilled Trump was elected so you get to gloat. Good job picking one of two available predictions. You truly are a genius. He actually picked both, as you can see from post #246. > [@SenorBeef](#): > > We are all so happy for you. Here I thought it was going to be a bad night, but then I realized the positive side of all of this - that Snowboarder Bo would get a fleeting moment of happiness when he gloated to all of us about how right he was to miraculously predict that one of the two possible presidential candidates would win the election. Indeed. Let’s all stand and slow clap with glistening eyes. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/265 "2016-11-09T07:52:56Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Bo’s last word on the subject before Election Day was him patiently explaining that he’s no longer confident that Trump will win this election – adding that he now expects that the American public overall will see the man as unfit for POTUS. > > Should I now start a thread saying that Trump will get re-elected? And then follow up with a post explaining that I believe he won’t? And then crow that I was right? I was not confident. I truly thought that the deplorable things he had done recently would have some impact on the election, and I did think that overall Mrs. Clinton conducted herself with class. From the start I made it clear that I did not want Mr. Trump to win this election, and towards the end there, all the data and all of my personal perceptions (and hopes) had me feeling that Mrs. Clinton was gonna manage to pull out a victory. Perhaps I had my head in the bubble a bit too much, perhaps I let my hopes color my perceptions. That doesn’t change the fact that what I wrote way back in March was correct. My analysis was correct, even if later events had me thinking differently. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/266 "2016-11-09T07:57:17Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > We are all so happy for you. Here I thought it was going to be a bad night, but then I realized the positive side of all of this - that Snowboarder Bo would get a fleeting moment of happiness when he gloated to all of us about how right he was to miraculously predict that one of the two possible presidential candidates would win the election. > [@SlackerInc](#): > > He actually picked both, as you can see from post #246. Actually, when I posted the OP there were more than 10 possible candidates, IIRC. At least 2 Democratic candidates and at least 8 Republican candidates. Yes, in post #246 I expressed my then-current hopes. Does that change what I wrote in the OP? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/267 "2016-11-09T07:57:35Z")
Bo, I haven’t read all your posts, nor Michael Moore’s recent output, but it seems to me you both had your ears to the same grindstone: white working-class folks (many of them “union”) in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You were legitimately part of this important observation, so a bit of self-congratulation is warranted, IMHO. A bit. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/268 "2016-11-09T08:02:40Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Bo, I haven’t read all your posts, nor Michael Moore’s recent output, but it seems to me you both had your ears to the same grindstone: white working-class folks (many of them “union”) in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You were legitimately part of this important observation, so a bit of self-congratulation is warranted, IMHO. > > A bit. 🙂 Thank you. Thanks also to **Banquet Bear** , **JKellyMap** , **Gukumatz** , etc. for the kind words. And yes, **JKelly** , it’s been interesting to read thru this again and put things written in March into context with today’s events. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 8:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/269 "2016-11-09T08:08:46Z")
[ > [@](#): > > Nearly 7 in 10 voters said they were unhappy with the way the government is working, including a quarter who said they were outright angry, according to preliminary results of exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Research. > > Three-fourths of those angry voters backed Trump. ]([http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US\_2016\_ELECTION\_EXIT\_POLL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-11-09-02-43-56](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_EXIT_POLL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-11-09-02-43-56))The problem is that they don’t like government because they don’t think government does anything for them… so they elect people who deliberately don’t do anything (Tea Party and GOP) and then get madder that nothing is being done. So they elected Mr. Trump. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![2gigch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/2gigch1/32/3313_2.png) [@2gigch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2gigch1)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 8:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/270 "2016-11-09T08:16:47Z")
Hi Bo, never saw this post before now (politics is not something I follow for pleasure since it’s work) - but yes, good analysis indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/271 "2016-11-09T08:24:41Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Bo, I haven’t read all your posts, nor Michael Moore’s recent output, but it seems to me you both had your ears to the same grindstone: white working-class folks (many of them “union”) in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You were legitimately part of this important observation, so a bit of self-congratulation is warranted, IMHO. > > A bit. 🙂 …yeah, I was completely blind to this myself, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Clinton campaign was blind to it as well. > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Bo’s last word on the subject before Election Day was him patiently explaining that he’s no longer confident that Trump will win this election – adding that he now expects that the American public overall will see the man as unfit for POTUS. > > Should I now start a thread saying that Trump will get re-elected? And then follow up with a post explaining that I believe he won’t? And then crow that I was right? Well the dope can be convincing. And thinking Trump was going to win went against all the available empirical evidence. But the OP was right. And the reasons why he was right are spelt out in the OP. That he was convinced otherwise over the course of a Great Debate doesn’t make his initial observations any less accurate. I know I was thinking the same thing: but I had faith the the American people would be able to see Trump for who he is and not make him the most powerful person on the planet. Obviously my faith was misplaced. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/272 "2016-11-09T09:06:18Z")
The OP was right. The 246P was wrong. Looks like a wash to me. mmm ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/273 "2016-11-09T09:09:57Z")
> [@Rigamarole](#): > > It sucks, but you’re right. > > Why oh why anyone thought it was a good idea to have Hillary run again for the Dems is a mystery. :smack: Hey, I had it right too. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/274 "2016-11-09T12:10:34Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > Well the dope can be convincing. And thinking Trump was going to win went against all the available empirical evidence. But the OP was right. And the reasons why he was right are spelt out in the OP. That he was convinced otherwise over the course of a Great Debate doesn’t make his initial observations any less accurate. But what if his _later_ observations had been accurate? Imagine, for a moment, that the opposite had happened: that Trump _had_ lost the election; that his abysmal conduct since the convention, and the past information about how abysmally he conducts himself, made the American electorate come to see him as unfit to serve as POTUS – exactly as Bo had come to expect. In that case, I figure Bo would’ve been within his rights to post a quick _“Well, I’ll be dipped. I was right!”_ – because, sure, he had some initial thoughts on the matter, and posted 'em back then; but over the course of the thread, Bo came to expect the opposite, and said so. So couldn’t he point to those later observations, and pat himself on the back for having gotten it right, if he had? That sentence kind of got away from me, there. Still, my point stands: I can predict _right now_ that Trump will get re-elected; and I can, some time later, announce that I’m no longer confident of that – adding that I now expect that he won’t get re-elected. If he’s re-elected, can I triumphantly point to my initial prediction? If he’s not, can I triumphantly point to my later one? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/275 "2016-11-09T12:46:10Z")
Exactly. If there are two possibilities, and you predict A, then later B, at most you can take credit for predicting B, since the later prediction is understood to supersede the earlier one. But to grant credit when A comes true after all, is to be very generous…or a sucker. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/276 "2016-11-09T12:48:22Z")
I lost a $50 bet on this election, BTW. That RL friend, who put his money where his mouth is and never wavered, is the kind of person who deserves credit–the fucker. ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/277 "2016-11-09T13:09:21Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I lost a $50 bet on this election, BTW. That RL friend, who put his money where his mouth is and never wavered, is the kind of person who deserves credit–the fucker. Or, you know, me. Who [consistently](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19306383&postcount=11) [said](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19152287&postcount=22) [Trump](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19132417&postcount=27) [would](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19149203&postcount=5) win, including in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785090) started by you, which you [mocked me for](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19132453&postcount=29), but are not acknowledging now (even though I PM’d you to call your attention to it). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/278 "2016-11-09T13:20:29Z")
I didn’t want, need, or appreciate the PM. But yes, congratulations. I was wrong to have so much faith in humanity. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/279 "2016-11-09T13:21:50Z")
> [@Rigamarole](#): > > Or, you know, me. Who [consistently](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19306383&postcount=11) [said](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19152287&postcount=22) [Trump](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19132417&postcount=27) [would](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19149203&postcount=5) win, including in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785090) started by you, which you [mocked me for](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19132453&postcount=29), but are not acknowledging now (even though I PM’d you to call your attention to it). Sweet Jesus Jackson, I haven’t seen such a juvenile grab for attention since my toddler drew a picture of a tree that I was slow to acknowledge. Simmer your beans. mmm ---
**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/280 "2016-11-09T13:23:41Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I didn’t want, need, or appreciate the PM. But yes, congratulations. I was wrong to have so much faith in humanity. Why, because you’d rather ignore and forget what you said? You don’t get to get away with shit like that. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/281 "2016-11-09T13:56:35Z")
Because I’m subscribed to all the threads I post in. You don’t have to also send me a PM when you post. Nor do I want you to. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=15)