# I predict that Donald Trump is going to win the election for POTUS this year. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 3, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810 "2016-03-03T05:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/21 "2016-03-03T15:05:13Z")
I can see Trump getting the nomination. The GOP failed to take him seriously enough to develop a coherent strategy to deal with him, and having too many candidates shooting each other allowed Trump to get into this position. The GOP has broken up into three groups: the traditional conservative purists, the once-dominant, now weakened, mainstream group and the angry populists which Trump has rallied. However, while the angry populists are a large minority in the GOP, they become a smaller minority in the general election voters. We can assume that most of the GOP voters and some of the independent voters will vote for anyone but Clinton, if they bother to vote. Most of the Democrats will come around to Clinton in the general election. One key question will be of the turnout. However, if you look at a map of the states, it becomes a numbers game. From [here](https://www.yahoo.com/news/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html), their analysis has 11 swing states, representing 130 electoral votes and the Democrats have 217 to the GOP’s 191. That article is based on analysis from [here](http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/president), which put only four states Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia with 69 votes as complete tossups, while others are leaning one way or another. They have 263 either safe, leaning or tilting Democrat and 206 for the GOP. The minority vote is becoming an increasingly larger share, as can be seen in [this article](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/02/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016/431865/). Florida, for example as whites as only 64.5% of the eligible voters. Overall, 69% of the voters will be white, [(Pew Research)](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/), 12% black, 12% Hispanic, and 4% Asian. USA Today, has [an article](http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/02/25/hispanic-poll-donald-trump-marco-rubio-ted-cruz-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/80881576/) which says > [@](#): > > But nationwide, 81% of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of the real estate mogul and only 16% would vote for him in matchups with Democratic candidates, according to a Washington Post/Univision poll released Wednesday night. The poll finds that his Republican opponents, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, would fare far better with the ever-growing Hispanic electorate. > > “The GOP has a Latino electorate problem, and that problem is called Donald Trump,” said Fernand Amandi, a principal at Bendixen & Amandi International, a Miami-based polling firm that helped conduct the survey. > > The poll found that Democrats will easily win the Hispanic vote in November, as they have for decades. But many Republican strategists say their candidate only needs to reach 40% of the Hispanic vote — last reached by President George W. Bush in 2004 — to have a good chance at winning the general election. > > Rubio comes the closest to reaching that figure, picking up 33% of Hispanics in a race against Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders and 31% against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Cruz would win 28% of the Hispanic vote in a matchup against Sanders and 27% against Clinton. This will be increasingly troublesome in swing states. The Pew Research article notes that > [@](#): > > While the U.S. electorate is growing more diverse, there’s a caveat when it comes to the impact of these changes: the relatively low voter turnout rates among Hispanics and Asians. In the 2012 presidential election, 64% of non-Hispanic white eligible voters cast ballots, as did 67% of black eligible voters. By comparison, the voter turnout rate was 48% among Hispanics and 47% among Asians. Trump could very well help motive that groups to come out stronger. The other factor is Trump’s dismal [favorable rating](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating) among general election voters which consistantly has a much more negative rating [than Clinton’s.](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating) ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/22 "2016-03-03T15:13:55Z")
> [@Rigamarole](#): > > It sucks, but you’re right. > > Why oh why anyone thought it was a good idea to have Hillary run again for the Dems is a mystery. :smack: Not just run, but run almost unopposed. I thought O’Malley was a good Democratic candidate and I’m surprised he never got any traction. The establishment was 100% pushing Hillary. Bernie’s doing his darndest to throw a wrench in the plans, but I think he’ll come up well short. In the general, Hillary vs. a Republican politician probably looked really good on paper several months ago. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/23 "2016-03-03T15:15:25Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The fever will break. First of all, Trump’s negatives are higher than Hillary’s. They’re going to get higher. Obama will campaign hard for her in places where he is popular. He’s going to motivate the black vote to come out in droves, which won’t be hard as she is quite popular with minorities anyway. Hispanics will also be highly motivated to vote against Trump and his blatant racism. If anything, Hillary is going to expand her map and use her high numbers among blacks to force Trump to defend the south. > > Then there’s the debates. Trump will be like the guy who skimmed through the Cliff Notes while writing his book report, Hillary will be the one who wrote notes on every page of the real book. She is going to make him look even less prepared than he seems now. > > Let’s not forget the economy. It’s picking up steam. Unemployment is falling. This has been a long continued recovery. That favors the party in power. Hillary can hug Obama’s approvals all the way to the White House. Despite what you hear on the right wing media, Obama is fairly popular for a president in his last term. > > Oh, and the women voters. Now that Scalia has assumed room temperature, this will motivate women to come out and vote to put a liberal justice on the court and make Roe impossible to overturn. The anti-abortion people have been reliable Republican voters for 40 years. Now the pro-choice side will be motivated to come out for Hillary. Trump has a problem with women- he’s a chauvinist pig. It’s going to be hard for even Republican women to get past that. > > Finally, he’s going to say something that will offend about everybody. Don’t know where, don’t know when, but that loose cannon he calls a mouth will fire off something so reprehensible that his supporters will stop and wonder why they supported this guy. > > No, he isn’t going to win. Take it to the bank and deposit it, this check will not bounce. I agree with this. He’s the joke that keeps on giving until he lets loose and offends everyone. Even some FOX news people are conceding that Hillary is a good candidate, which would normally have been when hell freezes over. Well it has. When the rest of the country wakes up and finds he’s nothing more than the Wizard of Oz selling Trump Crap, and that it’s good for you, that’s when your vote will count. Until that time hold on to your hat because that’s all that campaign has. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/24 "2016-03-03T15:16:56Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > Trends last until all of a sudden they don’t. Trump’s appeal strikes me as likely to crash hard after it peaks (especially once he has to win over the population at large rather than Republican primary voters, who constitute a fairly small and non-representative minority). Further, most of his appeal is based on his personality and schtick rather than his message, and that sort of thing gets old quickly. It’s like the political equivalent of being a one-hit wonder boy band. Six months later, no one will admit they even liked you. > > I could be wrong, but honestly, I think Clinton vs. Trump would be a landslide of the sort we haven’t seen since 1984 or 1972. (Just about everyone regarded Nixon as unlikeable and crooked, too, with far more justification than Clinton. Under the circumstances, it didn’t matter.) I think that there is a good chance for what you said about the general election to take place. However, what makes me believe that it will be close race, but in the end not successful for Trump, is that I don’t think that his appeal among Republicans will crash. The media also will make efforts to make it a horse race, as the media still has to squeeze the Trump cash cow. However, there is still a lot of “[Political Bullshit](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/03/peggy-noonan-mike-murphy_n_123647.html)” coming where everyone (Both Democrats and moderate Republicans) **will know** that the moderates and smart Republicans that will support Trump will be full of it. That and seeing that a significant number of republicans will still say “no way” to a Trump presidency is what makes me to be cautiously optimistic about the general Election. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/25 "2016-03-03T15:36:16Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I don’t think the polls will remain the way that they have been. Trump’s campaign is snowballing right now and as I’ve said, people tend to jump on a winner’s bandwagon. How exactly is his campaign snowballing in ways that would affect November’s outcome? In terms of vote share _among Republicans_, he didn’t do any better on Super Tuesday than in the first four primaries - about 34% both times. Meanwhile, his favorable/unfavorable ratings among voters across the board are several points worse than Hillary’s, and have changed little since last summer. There’s no snowball here. Global warming melted it. 😉 Also, Trump v. Hillary won’t turn into a dick-swinging contest, for obvious reasons. That worked on his GOP rivals, but just like Hillary did to her inquisitors at the Benghazi hearings, Hillary will give Trump enough rope for him to make himself look stupid, then calmly dissect him. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/26 "2016-03-03T15:57:15Z")
My prediction: Donald Trump will never be POTUS. I’ll be back to gloat later… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/27 "2016-03-03T16:53:53Z")
> [@cuauhtemoc](#): > > That leaves one demographic he has a prayer of breaking fifty with: white men. And he’ll have to _absolutely destroy_ her with white men to win the popular vote. He’ll have to do better with them than Romney did. Better than McCain. While being Donald Trump. His popularity demographic of white males is also limited. In his own words “I love the uneducated.” His white male base is the uneducated white male. That leaves a whole lot of white males who are educated. And what I’ve been hearing from them is “hell no!”. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/28 "2016-03-03T17:02:36Z")
> [@Hampshire](#): > > His popularity demographic of white males is also limited. In his own words “I love the uneducated.” His white male base is the uneducated white male. That leaves a whole lot of white males who are educated. And what I’ve been hearing from them is “hell no!”. Me too. I know I’m in a liberal bubble, but the only people I actually meet who like Trump are taxi drivers and other malcontents. I doubt they’ll actually vote in large numbers. See this[video](http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2016/03/02/watch-californians-lie-to-jimmy-kimmel-about-going-to-the-polls-on-super-tuesday/) Jimmy Kimmel did about CA voters on Super Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/29 "2016-03-03T17:06:59Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I hope I’m wrong. I actively want to be wrong. Well I have great news then. Trump can’t even hold together the shrinking GOP voter base, which had very little chance to win to begin with. You have sitting GOP senators and conservative strongholds like Redstate united together in opposing their own parties candidate and you think the guy has a chance in hell of winning? where is this delusion coming from? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/30 "2016-03-03T17:08:14Z")
Using 538’s handy-dandy [Swing-O-Matic](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/), I played with some numbers-- underestimating some, overestimating others. Even IF: …you keep the white college educated voters voting the exact same as they did in 2012 (unlikely with Trump, especially with women, but I’m assuming the worst)… …non-college educated white voters vote 4% more Republican and increase their turnout by 9%… …black voters vote 3% less for the Democrat, and decrease their turnout by 6%… …Latino voters (assuming Trump does nothing to quell their hatred) increase their turnout by only 2% and vote 2% more for the Democrat… …and Asian votes stay exactly the same… **Hillary still wins the presidency**. (Electoral vote: 272-266. Popular vote goes to Trump: 48.8-49.4) ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/31 "2016-03-03T17:11:57Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Also, Trump v. Hillary won’t turn into a dick-swinging contest, for obvious reasons. That worked on his GOP rivals, but just like Hillary did to her inquisitors at the Benghazi hearings, Hillary will give Trump enough rope for him to make himself look stupid, then calmly dissect him. Also, the other Republican candidates had limited ways that they could go after him at the debates, since Trump’s views aren’t more extreme than the others, he’s just less polite about saying Republican beliefs. And in some cases, he’s actually less extreme than the other candidates. They can’t call him out for being crazy, since they’d be calling themselves crazy too. And it took a really long time for any of them to start attacking him, they mainly all fought with each other instead of going after him. But Clinton can come from the start going after what Trump and the whole Republican party says. She won’t need to resort to making fun of his spray tan or small hands. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/32 "2016-03-03T17:26:12Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > But Clinton can come from the start going after what Trump and the whole Republican party says. She won’t need to resort to making fun of his spray tan or small hands. I can still do that, though, right? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/33 "2016-03-03T17:30:19Z")
[Good article (IMO) at Rolling Stone](http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224) that was written before Super Tuesday. It’s a VERY long piece but here are a bunch of highlights:[ > [@](#): > > President Donald Trump. > > A thousand ridiculous accidents needed to happen in the unlikeliest of sequences for it to be possible, but absent a dramatic turn of events – an early primary catastrophe, Mike Bloomberg ego-crashing the race, etc. – this boorish, monosyllabic TV tyrant with the attention span of an Xbox-playing 11-year-old really is set to lay waste to the most impenetrable oligarchy the Western world ever devised. > > It turns out we let our electoral process devolve into something so fake and dysfunctional that any half-bright con man with the stones to try it could walk right through the front door and tear it to shreds on the first go. > [@](#): > > But, in an insane twist of fate, this bloated billionaire scion has hobbies that have given him insight into the presidential electoral process. He likes women, which got him into beauty pageants. And he likes being famous, which got him into reality TV. He knows show business. > > That put him in position to understand that the presidential election campaign is really just a badly acted, billion-dollar TV show whose production costs ludicrously include the political disenfranchisement of its audience. Trump is making a mockery of the show, and the Wolf Blitzers and Anderson Coopers of the world seem appalled. How dare he demean the presidency with his antics? > > But they’ve all got it backward. The presidency is serious. The presidential electoral process, however, is a sick joke, in which everyone loses except the people behind the rope line. And every time some pundit or party spokesman tries to deny it, Trump picks up another vote. > [@](#): > > The unexpectedly thrilling Democratic Party race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, too, is breaking just right for Trump. It’s exposing deep fissures in the Democratic strategy that Trump is already exploiting. > > Every four years, some Democrat who’s been a lifelong friend of labor runs for president. And every four years, that Democrat gets thrown over by national labor bosses in favor of some party lifer with his signature on a half-dozen job-exporting free-trade agreements. > > It’s called “transactional politics,” and the operating idea is that workers should back the winner, rather than the most union-friendly candidate. > [@](#): > > Trump is already positioning himself to take advantage of the political opportunity afforded him by “transactional politics.” He regularly hammers the NAFTA deal in his speeches, applying to it his favorite word, “disaster.” And he just as regularly drags Hillary Clinton into his hypothetical tales of job-saving, talking about how she could never convince Detroit carmakers out of moving a factory to Mexico. > [@](#): > > You will find union members scattered at almost all of Trump’s speeches. And there have been rumors of unions nationally considering endorsing Trump. SEIU president Mary Kay Henry even admitted in January that Trump appeals to members because of the “terrible anxiety” they feel about jobs. > > “I know guys, union guys, who talk about Trump,” says Rand Wilson, an activist from the Labor for Bernie organization. “I try to tell them about Sanders, and they don’t know who he is. Or they’ve just heard he’s a socialist. Trump they’ve heard of.” > [@](#): > > At a Democratic town hall in Derry, New Hampshire, Hillary’s strangely pathetic answer about why she accepted $675,000 from Goldman to give speeches – “That’s what they offered” – seemed doomed to become a touchstone for the general-election contest. Trump would go out on Day One of that race and blow $675,000 on a pair of sable underwear, or a solid-gold happy-face necktie. And he’d wear it 24 hours a day, just to remind voters that his opponent sold out for the Trump equivalent of lunch money. > > Trump will surely argue that the Clintons are the other half of the dissolute-conspiracy story he’s been selling, representing a workers’ party that abandoned workers and turned the presidency into a vast cash-for-access enterprise, avoiding scrutiny by making Washington into Hollywood East and turning labor leaders and journalists alike into starstruck courtiers. As with everything else, Trump personalizes this, making his stories of buying Hillary’s presence at his wedding a part of his stump speech. A race against Hillary Clinton in the general, if it happens, will be a pitch right in Trump’s wheelhouse – and if Bill Clinton is complaining about the “vicious” attacks by the campaign of pathological nice guy Bernie Sanders, it’s hard to imagine what will happen once they get hit by the Trumpdozer. ]([How America Made Donald Trump Unstoppable](http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224))The Trumpdozer is coming, America. Can we get out of the way? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/34 "2016-03-03T17:35:12Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Using 538’s handy-dandy [Swing-O-Matic](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/), I played with some numbers-- underestimating some, overestimating others. Even IF: > > …you keep the white college educated voters voting the exact same as they did in 2012 (unlikely with Trump, especially with women, but I’m assuming the worst)… > > …non-college educated white voters vote 4% more Republican and increase their turnout by 9%… > > …black voters vote 3% less for the Democrat, and decrease their turnout by 6%… > > …Latino voters (assuming Trump does nothing to quell their hatred) increase their turnout by only 2% and vote 2% more for the Democrat… > > …and Asian votes stay exactly the same… > > **Hillary still wins the presidency**. (Electoral vote: 272-266. Popular vote goes to Trump: 48.8-49.4) I went to that site and I adjusted only the non-college educated white voters from 62% voting Republican to 69.5% voting Republican and Trump wins. That site makes A LOT of assumptions, tho and I’m not sure it has much value other than being a nifty thing to play with right now. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/35 "2016-03-03T17:40:01Z")
I don’t think Trump has a realistic chance to win the general election (short of a Hillary indictment, or some other earth-shattering event of that magnitude). Of course, I didn’t initially think he had a chance to be where he is at this point either, so there’s that. ISTM in retrospect that Trump is uniquely situated to do well in Republican primaries. This is because most of the things that should kill his candidacy depend on heavy media hype to work, and a lot of conservatives tend to be very skeptical of media hype. This would not apply to moderate swing voters who determine general elections. It should also be noted that it’s not like Trump is winning these primaries - even among Republicans alone - by majorities; he’s getting pluralities. In the GE you need majorities, and this is where his negatives will kill him. On a side note, I’ve seen rumors of a scheme by Republicans to subvert the results if Trump wins the nomination. The idea is to have a mainsteam Republican - possibly Romney - run a third party campaign limited to a few key winnable states, just enough to deprive Hillary of a majority of electoral votes. Then the election goes to the House, and the Republicans put in a mainstream candidate of their liking (possibly Romney but possibly also Ryan). ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/36 "2016-03-03T18:13:48Z")
‘Then the election goes to the House…’ Er, um…what? (Please to explain for non Americans!) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/37 "2016-03-03T18:18:36Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I went to that site and I adjusted only the non-college educated white voters from 62% voting Republican to 69.5% voting Republican and Trump wins. > > That site makes A LOT of assumptions, tho and I’m not sure it has much value other than being a nifty thing to play with right now. Well, I’ll believe a data-driven site making assumptions over a person making anecdote-driven assumptions and assumptions based on their gut feelings any day of the week. You say patronizingly say “Prove. Me. Wrong.” Well, aside from waking up on November 9 and showing you the newspaper that says “Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump,” I’m not sure what the hell you’re looking for. Not data apparently. Not poll numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/38 "2016-03-03T18:19:33Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I don’t think the polls will remain the way that they have been. Trump’s campaign is snowballing right now and as I’ve said, people tend to jump on a winner’s bandwagon. I think we’re going to see that happen to a tremendous, even unprecedented, degree in the next 8 months. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Again, snowballing in the Republican dungeon. I’m not sure what that’s supposed to mean, but like I said: people like to back a winner:[ > [@GOP strategist Alex Castellanos](#): > > It is too late. There is a fantasy effort to stop Trump, like a fantasy campaign to stop yesterday but it exists only as the denial stage of grief. > > If our self-indulgent Republican party establishment had really wanted to prevent a takeover of the GOP, they should not have gorged on political power while they failed to do anything to prevent the decline of the country. Our leaders could have led. They could have done more than say ‘no’ to Democrats while offering no alternative. > > They should have stood up for the change Donald Trump is bringing now but they didn’t. > > Now, Trump has earned the nomination. He won it, fair and square and we should respect that. Donald Trump whipped the establishment and it is too late for the limp GOP establishment to ask their mommy to step in and rewrite the rules because they were humiliated for their impotence. > > If Trump is going to be our nominee, as I believe he is, it is our mission to support Trump and make him the best nominee and president possible. ]([https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/02/gop-strategist-castellanos-time-to-rally-around-trump-too-late-to-ask-mommy-to-step-in-and-rewrite-rules/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/02/gop-strategist-castellanos-time-to-rally-around-trump-too-late-to-ask-mommy-to-step-in-and-rewrite-rules/))For those who have never heard of Mr. Castellanos, [here is a brief bio: > [@](#): > > Alejandro “Alex” Castellanos (born 1954) is a Cuban American political consultant. He has worked on electoral campaigns for Republican candidates including Bob Dole, George W. Bush, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney. In 2008, Castellanos, a partner at National Media Inc., co-founded Purple Strategies, a bipartisan communications firm. Castellanos is also a regular guest commentator on Meet the Press and a contributor for CNN. ]([Alex Castellanos - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Castellanos)) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/39 "2016-03-03T18:20:14Z")
> [@elbows](#): > > ‘Then the election goes to the House…’ > > Er, um…what? > > (Please to explain for non Americans!) If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the election is handed over to the House of Representatives, which is currently run by Republicans. [Cue dramatic music](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cphNpqKpKc4). ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2016, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/40 "2016-03-03T18:34:15Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I’m not sure what that’s supposed to mean, but like I said: people like to back a winner But so far there hasn’t seemed to be much of that. It seems like many Republican politicians are just resigned to it, or they’re planning on how to campaign for lower tickets while distancing themselves from Trump. I haven’t that a lot of Republican voters are jumping on the Trump bandwagon either. The highest profile person who has turned from being against Trump to supporting him is Chris Christie, and he does not seem enthusiastic about it. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the election is handed over to the House of Representatives, which is currently run by Republicans. [Cue dramatic music](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cphNpqKpKc4). But are there any other candidates who could run a third party campaign and draw enough votes? I’ve read that someone could run a third party campaign more as a way to get voters out to vote for the lower ticket races. Like if a voter could just choose between Trump and Clinton, they might just not bother going to vote, but if they could also choose to vote for Candidate X, they’ll feel better about that and go out and vote, and also vote for the senators and representatives and judges and whoever else down ticket. That seems like a plausible strategy to me. Running a third party candidate to get things to go to the House seems much less likely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=3)