# I predict that Donald Trump is going to win the election for POTUS this year. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 3, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810 "2016-03-03T05:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/81 "2016-03-04T20:43:34Z")
Whenever I think of Donald Trump being president, I’m always taken back to that dead zone clip of Martin Sheen causing WWIII. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Tj9M34DzAKo/maxresdefault.jpg "The Missiles Are Flying - The Dead Zone (9/10) Movie CLIP (1983) HD") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj9M34DzAKo) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/82 "2016-03-04T20:52:45Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I predict this prediction is going to end up looking very silly. If Drumpf even keeps it as close as McCain or Romney did, I will be shocked. I’d be impressed too. I think people have fallen into a recency-effect trap of assuming elections will always be close, decided by swing states like Ohio or Florida. But it’s not that far back in history that Presidential elections have been complete blowouts. I strongly suspect a Clinton-Trump election will look a lot more like Reagan destroying Mondale than it will any recent election. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/83 "2016-03-04T20:55:39Z")
The only real question is whether the Republicans can maintain control of the Senate (and possibly even the House) under a Trump banner. That’s why I think a third party Shmepublican candidacy might be a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/84 "2016-03-04T21:15:22Z")
[quote=“Ryan\_Liam, post:81, topic:747810”] Whenever I think of Donald Trump being president, I’m always taken back to that dead zone clip of Martin Sheen causing WWIII. [/QUOTE] Heh, a friend of mine was wondering how long before Trump uses a baby as a human shield, and whether even that would dissuade his fans. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/85 "2016-03-04T21:22:54Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > Heh, a friend of mine was wondering how long before Trump uses a baby as a human shield, and whether even that would dissuade his fans. It’s the mannerisms which I find are uncanny. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/86 "2016-03-04T21:40:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I think people have fallen into a recency-effect trap of assuming elections will always be close, decided by swing states like Ohio or Florida. But it’s not that far back in history that Presidential elections have been complete blowouts. Yes, but the electorate as a whole is [much more polarized](http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/) now than it was 20 years ago. I don’t really think Trump will be elected president, but tight races are a fact of life now, and I think it will be a more competitive contest than it has any right to be in a sane universe. (Although imagining the Right’s response to Clinton winning in a Reagan vs. Mondale-style blowout does put a smile on my face.) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/87 "2016-03-04T22:05:22Z")
[quote=“Ryan\_Liam, post:81, topic:747810”] Whenever I think of Donald Trump being president, I’m always taken back to that dead zone clip of Martin Sheen causing WWIII. [/QUOTE] I’ve been thinking about the similarities too, although more in the way Sheen’s character campaigned with all that phony baloney hardhat nonsense. Definitely keyed into the same blue collar populism. (And it’s pretty wild that Sheen played this kind of evil maniac president, and then later the ultimate “good” president from a progressive POV.) I’ve also noticed parallels to [Bob Roberts.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2uWcukaSpg) The tagline “vote first, ask questions later” seems especially appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/88 "2016-03-05T00:49:56Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t think Trump has a realistic chance to win the general election (short of a Hillary indictment, or some other earth-shattering event of that magnitude). Of course, I didn’t initially think he had a chance to be where he is at this point either, so there’s that. > > ISTM in retrospect that Trump is uniquely situated to do well in Republican primaries. This is because most of the things that should kill his candidacy depend on heavy media hype to work, and a lot of conservatives tend to be very skeptical of media hype. This would not apply to moderate swing voters who determine general elections. > > It should also be noted that it’s not like Trump is winning these primaries - even among Republicans alone - by majorities; he’s getting pluralities. In the GE you need majorities, and this is where his negatives will kill him. > > On a side note, I’ve seen rumors of a scheme by Republicans to subvert the results if Trump wins the nomination. The idea is to have a mainsteam Republican - possibly Romney - run a third party campaign limited to a few key winnable states, just enough to deprive Hillary of a majority of electoral votes. Then the election goes to the House, and the Republicans put in a mainstream candidate of their liking (possibly Romney but possibly also Ryan). So…let me get this straight. A third party with a Republican candidate is going to do anything more significant than to fracture the Republican vote? Yeah, good luck with that. ---
**Author:** ![Mister\_Rik](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mister_rik/32/491_2.png) [@Mister\_Rik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mister_Rik)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/89 "2016-03-05T00:50:49Z")
One massive voting bloc I haven’t seen mentioned in this thread is “senior citizens”. Granted, this is entirely anecdotal, with a small sample size, but at the time I left my employment in a local retirement home (last October), there were a lot of residents there liking the idea of President Trump. I’m leaning towards voting for Trump. I certainly will never vote for Clinton. For the record, as I’ve mentioned before on this board, I was raised as a Republican and as an Evangelical Christian. But in my 40s, I grew disenchanted with the way my religion and my political party had crawled into bed with each other (I thought each was ruining the other), and now consider myself an independent voter, with Libertarian leanings. I helped legalize marijuana and gay marriage in my state (Washington), despite being neither a pot smoker nor gay, and despite the fact that both things are technically against my religion. Is Trump racist? Probably. But is anything he is proposing contrary to US law? Nope. I know that my fellow Dopers take [Cracked.com](http://Cracked.com) with a grain of salt, but they published an excellent article yesterday about Trump: > **[5 Very Possible Nightmare Scenarios From A Trump Presidency](https://www.cracked.com/blog/5-realistic-ways-donald-trump-can-accomplish-his-crazy-goals)** > > Let's talk about why we're doomed, America! Ignore the clickbait title of the article. The title was actually changed _while I was reading it_. The current title is, “5 Very Possible Nightmare Scenarios From A Trump Presidency”. The original title describes the article much better: “5 Realistic Ways Donald Trump Can Accomplish His Crazy Goals”. (And the commenters called them out for changing the title. Some of the commenters said, “Damn, Cracked. You’ve convinced me to vote for Trump!” As far as the Hispanic vote, I live in a city where the population is now around 30% Hispanic (mainly Mexican). I actually work in an industry, foodservice, that is heavily impacted by Mexicans who are willing to work for low wages, and I have seen my own wages affected. Know what? I don’t care. I have worked with some amazing Mexican workers who are in this country legally, and they are being affected just as badly as I am by illegals. A legal Mexican-American, who either entered the country legally and obtained citizenship, or, more likely here and now, was actually _born and raised here_ has just as much objection to illegal immigration as you or I do. At my last job, I worked with a young Mexican-American man. He has older relatives who entered the USA illegally. _He_ chose to enter legally. And when he came to the USA, he made a point of learning to speak English properly. Despite being born and raised in Mexico, he speaks perfect English. He expressed disgust toward his relatives who have been here 10 years longer than he has been, and they still can’t speak English. I had been noticing the way he wrote the daily specials on the whiteboard in the kitchen, and one day I complimented him on the fact that his spelling was better than many native English speakers. He explained to me that a big part of his learning to speak English was that … he _read_ a lot of English. Books, newspapers … anything in English, he read it. And as far as speaking in English, he made a concentrated effort to diminish his Mexican accent, so that he would be intelligible. I don’t know if he’s a voter, but if he is, I can see him voting for Trump. He seemed to believe in, “if you want to be American, do it the right way”. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/90 "2016-03-05T00:55:16Z")
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html) > [@](#): > > To borrow a phrase from one of the men trailing Trump: Let’s dispense with the notion that Trump has a real shot at winning in November. (The writer does note however that it is useful to hype the threat to increase Democratic turnout, thereby helping in congressional races. So maybe I should dial back my public scoffing.) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/91 "2016-03-05T01:38:01Z")
> [@Mister\_Rik](#): > > Is Trump racist? Probably. But is anything he is proposing contrary to US law? Nope. Actually, yes. > **[Trump flip-flops on torture, killing terrorists’ families](https://nypost.com/2016/03/04/trump-flip-flops-on-torture-killing-terrorists-families/)** > > WASHINGTON — Donald Trump retreated Friday from his promise that if elected president he would order the military to kill family members of militants who threaten the United States. Trump’s c… > [@](#): > > But fewer than 24 hours earlier, in Thursday’s GOP debate, Trump stuck to his position on targeting family members of militants and on an expansive use of torture against captured militants. When a debate moderator asked him what he would do if the military refused to carry out such orders, Trump replied: “They’re not going to refuse me. Believe me.” > > The use of torture and the killing of civilians are barred by the Geneva Conventions, to which the United States is a signatory. Congress outlawed waterboarding and any so-called enhanced interrogation techniques after the administration of George W. Bush carried out such acts against suspected al-Qaida fighters. Members of the U.S. military are bound by duty and tradition to refuse orders they know to be illegal. This includes intentionally targeting civilian noncombatants. Of course someone close to him finally got to explain the riot act to him and he has flip flopped on that. In any case, there are other items where Trump may be running afoul of the law, and besides Trump university. > **[Bush-aligned lawyer: Donald Trump's camp is breaking federal law](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/01/13/bush-aligned-lawyer-donald-trumps-camp-breaking-federal-election-law/78756404/)** > > At issue: Is the billionaire improperly using his corporate resources in White House bid? ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/92 "2016-03-05T03:10:01Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > Your link didn’t work for me, but I’m guessing it’s to [this article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2016/02/25/poll-trumps-negatives-among-hispanics-rise-worst-in-gop-field/). If that’s the case, then this is the most interesting part in it to me: > > It’s surprising to me, since Trump’s views aren’t radically different than the other candidates, just he’s louder and less polite about them. Maybe there’s something I’m missing, or it was a poorly worded survey. > > Regardless, there had been a lot of talk about how the Republicans needed more Hispanic voters to win this time, and they are definitely not doing that with Trump. It’s not a sure thing, and I definitely don’t want people to become complacent, but it seems unlikely for Trump to win. Weird my link didn’t work, maybe they updated or moved it? Anyway I think Latinos won’t forget Trump’s first speech and that’s why they are not in love with him or his politics. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/93 "2016-03-05T07:40:28Z")
48 hours ago I would have thought this OP preposterous. But now that penis size has become the qualifying factor, let’s face it… Hillary’s got _nuthin’!_ :eek: ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/94 "2016-03-05T07:41:56Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > So far this type of thing has not really harmed Trump, because his supporters are the component of the electorate which is completely fed up with political correctness. But I don’t see this holding in the general election - there aren’t enough of such people. I think so, too. Trump’s followers will love him no matter what he does, but that’s not going to be enough in November. The Hispanic vote will bury him in many of the swing states. He can back track from everything else, but he can’t get away from his stance on building that wall and having Mexico pay for it. That will cost him the election. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/95 "2016-03-05T13:05:25Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > So…let me get this straight. A third party with a Republican candidate is going to do anything more significant than to fracture the Republican vote? Yeah, good luck with that. You’re not thinking this through. If the election is Trump vs Hillary a lot of R voters stay home or cross over to vote for Hillary in preference to Trump. Hillary gets \> 50% in the EC and becomes Prez. And maybe a lot of R senators & Reps don’t get voted for either, so Congress becomes more D, maybe even majority D in one or the other chamber. Bad for Rs all around. Conversely, if the election is Trump vs Hillary vs e.g. Romney, the mass of R voters come out to vote for either Trump or for Romney. The Rs do well in Congress since their straight ticket voters showed up. Because the mainstream R voters have somebody sane to vote for, they don’t cross over which means nobody gets 50% in the EC. The election goes to the House, where the Rs have their expected majority. The R-dominated House duly selects the mainstream R candidate, e.g. Romney. So the Rs have a Prez, probably a Senate, and a House. Good for Rs, bad for Ds. And Trump? A big goose-egg for him. All is rainbows & unicorns in R-land. That’s the theory at least. Whether it’ll work is certainly an open question. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/96 "2016-03-05T13:15:22Z")
The first part, about protecting Congress, makes sense. But the second part, trying to throw the presidential election to the House, does not. It would depend on either Romney or Drumpf winning a plurality of the vote in several states Obama carried twice, even as they compete with each other for votes. It’s a complete nonstarter. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/97 "2016-03-05T13:46:32Z")
This isn’t my idea; I’m just explaining it. There are some mainstream R pundits recommending it. I agree it seems … implausible. Sometimes a desperation play is the only play you’ve got. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/98 "2016-03-05T13:56:42Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > This isn’t my idea; I’m just explaining it. There are some mainstream R pundits recommending it. > > I agree it seems … implausible. Sometimes a desperation play is the only play you’ve got. As I said the last time I saw this plan, if they fucked with the election this way and the House voted in a President who didn’t win the most votes, it would deserve public lynchings. It would be an abomination and no one would give a crap that “them’s the rules”. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/99 "2016-03-05T14:06:54Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I’ve been thinking about the similarities too, although more in the way Sheen’s character campaigned with all that phony baloney hardhat nonsense. Definitely keyed into the same blue collar populism. (And it’s pretty wild that Sheen played this kind of evil maniac president, and then later the ultimate “good” president from a progressive POV.) > > I’ve also noticed parallels to [Bob Roberts.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2uWcukaSpg) We’ve all noticed that [Biff Tannen](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/21/how-back-to-the-future-predicted-trump.html) got the almanac. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2016, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/100 "2016-03-05T17:27:40Z")
The turnout figures for Republicans are incredible. One thing that may be happening here is that a lot of people are coming out to vote for Trump who are typically apolitical and normally don’t vote at all. They’re just people playing a part in the biggest reality TV show ever. It’s going to be a weird election. We might actually be witnessing the end of the Republican party. That sounds crazy, but it’s getting really ugly over there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=6)