# I predict that Donald Trump is going to win the election for POTUS this year. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 3, 2016, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810 "2016-03-03T05:22:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/161 "2016-03-08T06:28:04Z")
That’s a solid argument. It might be just as effective in terms of guaranteeing a win on the presidential level. But I’m not sure it’s nearly as likely to put the House in play. And the spectacle of a third party “real Republican” ticket, running as an attempt to sort of carry the torch while Drumpf hijacks their actual convention, sounds a lot more entertaining to me than just a Drumpf third-party run. But the nice thing is that we have so many delectable options… ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/162 "2016-03-08T08:39:35Z")
College students [have a question for Donald Trump.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG5kSgJtyQg) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 9:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/163 "2016-03-08T09:01:09Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > You seem unclear on how ratfucking works in our system. And your evidence that ratfuckig is what is going on is…? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/164 "2016-03-08T14:23:53Z")
As strong as the evidence that Trump is winning the hearts and minds of Democrats. Did you think you had a point? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/165 "2016-03-08T14:25:30Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > To really blow up the GOP you want a brokered convention, with sore feelings all around and tear gas in the hall, police beating and arresting demonstrators … ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/167 "2016-03-08T15:38:10Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > well said; even tho I’m with Dems on the economic issues and most social issues (like gays [not transvestites] and abortion, you touch on some great points about how Obama has been tone deaf to those outside the arch-left. Had Obama been like Bill Clinton on social issues and done everything else the same, but also took on radical Islamic terror and didn’t hate Israel (given American [public opinion](http://www.gallup.com/poll/189626/americans-views-toward-israel-remain-firmly-positive.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles)), there’d be no Trump, perhaps even no Tea Party, and Obama’s party would be in a stronger position. Obama is too happy to fight culture wars. He’s the typical liberal: puts pet causes of like 2 people (the transvestites, or Muslims in America, for example) over the unity of the country; most Americans don’t want men in girls’ bathrooms nor do they convince themselves that the most common religious extremism isn’t Islamic extremism. > > Also, Obama should have done more to at least address many whites’ complaints about blacks’ behavior, instead of just the converse. While blacks did have it hard for a while to oppressive whites, there is still another side to the coin. Obama has never had a Sister Souljah moment. Big mistake. Honestly, I feel like you’re judging Obama based not on what he has actually done, but on what Fox News says he has done. -You want him to have done more against radical Islam? Remember who captured and killed Bin Laden? Remember who has launched so many drone strikes that the true progressives are really upset about it? -The idea that Obama hates Israel is so divorced from reality that it’s bizarre. Maybe he’s only at 94 out of 100 on the pro-Israel scale instead of 97 out of 100, but it’s just insupportable to claim that he’s in any way AGAINST Israel -As for cultural issues like trans rights, has he ever even spoken out about that? He’s clearly for gay marriage at this point, and he may well be pro trans rights (I certainly hope he is), but what he certainly has NOT done is devote more than a tiny amount of time or energy or political capital to any such issues. Seriously, from reading your post you’d think that one of the centerpieces of his political effort was a law about bathrooms. Instead, that’s just a cultural issue that is unfolding during his presidency that he has been almost entirely silent on. Has he devoted paragraphs of the State of the Union address to it? Has he expended political capital? When you get right down to it, basically ever major thing Obama has done fits perfectly into your wish list of things that make life better for working class Americans… namely (a) Obamacare, so they can get insurance, (b) made the economy WAY better on every possible metric than it was when he took office, and (c) got us out of stupid pointless foreign wars. To the extent that I blame Obama for any of your complaints, I only blame him for not communicating to you and those like you well enough what he has done… and the fact that he has not done so is prima facie evidence that the idea of the “liberal media” is a big myth. ---
**Author:** ![DerekMichaels00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@DerekMichaels00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DerekMichaels00)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/168 "2016-03-08T15:41:27Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Honestly, I feel like you’re judging Obama based not on what he has actually done, but on what Fox News says he has done. > > -You want him to have done more against radical Islam? Remember who captured and killed Bin Laden? Remember who has launched so many drone strikes that the true progressives are really upset about it? > > -The idea that Obama hates Israel is so divorced from reality that it’s bizarre. Maybe he’s only at 94 out of 100 on the pro-Israel scale instead of 97 out of 100, but it’s just insupportable to claim that he’s in any way AGAINST Israel > > -As for cultural issues like trans rights, has he ever even spoken out about that? He’s clearly for gay marriage at this point, and he may well be pro trans rights (I certainly hope he is), but what he certainly has NOT done is devote more than a tiny amount of time or energy or political capital to any such issues. Seriously, from reading your post you’d think that one of the centerpieces of his political effort was a law about bathrooms. Instead, that’s just a cultural issue that is unfolding during his presidency that he has been almost entirely silent on. Has he devoted paragraphs of the State of the Union address to it? Has he expended political capital? > When you get right down to it, basically ever major thing Obama has done fits perfectly into your wish list of things that make life better for working class Americans… namely (a) Obamacare, so they can get insurance, (b) made the economy WAY better on every possible metric than it was when he took office, and (c) got us out of stupid pointless foreign wars. To the extent that I blame Obama for any of your complaints, I only blame him for not communicating to you and those like you well enough what he has done… and the fact that he has not done so is prima facie evidence that the idea of the “liberal media” is a big myth. Ummm he gave an award to Bruce Jenner. He treats Netanyahu worse than Castro/Chavez. And you don’t need to watch Fox to know those; you only need notice his tone and body language around those people. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/169 "2016-03-08T15:51:13Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > When you get right down to it, basically ever major thing Obama has done fits perfectly into your wish list of things that make life better for working class Americans… namely (a) Obamacare, so they can get insurance, (b) made the economy WAY better on every possible metric than it was when he took office, and (c) got us out of stupid pointless foreign wars. I don’t agree that Obama has “made the economy WAY better on every possible metric than it was when he took office”. The economy is cyclical and Obama was fortunate in that he took office at a low point, when the only direction to go was up. > [@](#): > > To the extent that I blame Obama for any of your complaints, I only blame him for not communicating to you and those like you well enough what he has done… and the fact that he has not done so is prima facie evidence that the idea of the “liberal media” is a big myth. People disagreeing with you isn’t always a failure of communication. Sometimes they just disagree. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/170 "2016-03-08T16:09:21Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t agree that Obama has “made the economy WAY better on every possible metric than it was when he took office”. The economy is cyclical and Obama was fortunate in that he took office at a low point, when the only direction to go was up. There’s some truth to that, although in Obama’s case I think the fact that he took over during a moment of massive crisis meant that it would have been a lot easier for him than for most presidents to screw things up catastrophically… and he didn’t. And regardless of whether the president _should_ get credit for economic recovery, he usually does, and thus Fox News basically never admits that there’s any good economic news even when there is, and hey, look, that seems to be what DerekMichaels00 thinks as well. > [@](#): > > People disagreeing with you isn’t always a failure of communication. Sometimes they just disagree. Sure, and if someone says “hey, here’s a fact about a thing that Obama has actually done, I think it was a bad idea”, well, more power to them, that’s what democracy is all about. But that’s not what DerekMichaels00 is saying. Instead he’s misrepresenting Obama’s positions and priorities in a vague way, one that corresponds quite well with the Fox News culture war narrative. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/171 "2016-03-08T16:14:13Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > Ummm he gave an award to Bruce Jenner. Still refer to Muhammad Ali as “Cassius Clay”, do you? And, oh my god, he took 5 minutes from one day to record a video message to play at an awards show. Think how many jobs he could have created if he’d only been focused on doing his job!!! > [@](#): > > He treats Netanyahu worse than Castro/Chavez. And you don’t need to watch Fox to know those; you only need notice his tone and body language around those people. Even if that were true, and I don’t think it is, even if he really passionately hates Netanyahu, that’s not the same thing as hating Israel. The main thing I hear people actually mention that Obama actually did that is “against Israel” is the Iran nuclear deal. But the point of the Iran nuclear deal is to STOP IRAN FROM HAVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, which, and try to follow my chain of reasoning here, seems likely to stop Israel from getting nuked. Can you point to actual policies Obama has implemented or statements he’s made which support the idea that he hates Israel? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/172 "2016-03-08T16:21:59Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > There’s some truth to that, although in Obama’s case I think the fact that he took over during a moment of massive crisis meant that it would have been a lot easier for him than for most presidents to screw things up catastrophically… and he didn’t. I disagree with this. The US economy is more resilient than a lot of people think, and much of what’s done in crisis situations is SOP that any president would do to one extent or another. I don’t see anything he did which made a huge difference in the economy one way or the other. A lot of stimulus spending and some bailouts, which was basically a continuation of what Bush was doing and is pretty much conventional wisdom (and left enormous deficits which will be paid for down the road), plus easy money by the Fed. FWIW, the economy has been a pretty long expansion, but it’s an extremely weak expansion as expansions go (i.e. consistently weak growth in GDP) and weak if any growth in real wages. > [@](#): > > Sure, and if someone says “hey, here’s a fact about a thing that Obama has actually done, I think it was a bad idea”, well, more power to them, that’s what democracy is all about. But that’s not what DerekMichaels00 is saying. Instead he’s misrepresenting Obama’s positions and priorities in a vague way, one that corresponds quite well with the Fox News culture war narrative. I wasn’t commenting about DerekMichael’s claims. I was commenting about yours. Re Israel, it’s hard to say what Obama’s feelings about Israel are (or how much it matters). Much of US policy towards Israel (most notably foreign aid) is driven by congress, where Israel has strong support. Certainly Obama has been less pro-Israel than prior Republican administrations, and he does seem to view the Israel as being on the wrong end of his colonialist vs Third World viewpoint. But “hates” is probably much too strong a term. In any event, it does not seem to me that Obama’s policies towards Israel - let alone his feelings about it - have anything to do with the rise of Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/173 "2016-03-08T16:40:45Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > In any event, it does not seem to me that Obama’s policies towards Israel - let alone his feelings about it - have anything to do with the rise of Trump. On further reflection, it might have a bit to do with it, in an indirect way. That being, that it could contribute to the feeling that Obama views the world very differently than these people themselves do, and thus contributes to support for a guy who is (or at least pretends to be) more aligned with them. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/174 "2016-03-08T16:51:30Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > He treats Netanyahu worse than Castro/Chavez. No he doesn’t. You’ve repeated variations of this many times, and it’s entirely untrue. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/175 "2016-03-08T17:24:48Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > Ummm he gave an award to Bruce Jenner. He treats Netanyahu worse than Castro/Chavez. And you don’t need to watch Fox to know those; you only need notice his tone and body language around those people. Netanyahu is a bully. You, as a supposed patriotic American, should be concerned about how Netanyahu treats Obama than the other way around. And anyway, Obama doesn’t treat Netanyahu poorly; he just doesn’t kowtow to him. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2016, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/176 "2016-03-08T19:27:13Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Still refer to Muhammad Ali as “Cassius Clay”, do you? And, oh my god, he took 5 minutes from one day to record a video message to play at an awards show. Think how many jobs he could have created if he’d only been focused on doing his job!!! > Even if that were true, and I don’t think it is, even if he really passionately hates Netanyahu, that’s not the same thing as hating Israel. The main thing I hear people actually mention that Obama actually did that is “against Israel” is the Iran nuclear deal. But the point of the Iran nuclear deal is to STOP IRAN FROM HAVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, which, and try to follow my chain of reasoning here, seems likely to stop Israel from getting nuked. > > Can you point to actual policies Obama has implemented or statements he’s made which support the idea that he hates Israel? Thank you **MaxTheVool** for this and your many fine posts. I note your Join Date and compliment you: You are far _ **FAR** _ more patient than I am. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/177 "2016-03-09T01:02:25Z")
> [@DerekMichaels00](#): > > Ummm he gave an award to Bruce Jenner. He treats Netanyahu worse than Castro/Chavez. And you don’t need to watch Fox to know those; you only need notice his tone and body language around those people. Some of us who are generally supportive of Israel think Netanyahu is a slimeball dickwad. I am glad that Obama distances himself from him, while continuing to be supportive of the state of Israel. > [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > In any event, it does not seem to me that Obama’s policies towards Israel - let alone his feelings about it - have anything to do with the rise of Trump. I would call that polite understatement. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/178 "2016-03-09T01:09:24Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That’s just one county in Ohio - 14% of Democrats have switched their party affiliation to vote for Trump. > > There are two possibilities: One is that Trump is reaching blue-collar Democrats in large numbers. The other is that these Democrats are switching simply to spoil the Republican primary and try to prevent moderate John Kasich from winning over lunatic Donald Trump, just because they think it will help them win in November. I can think of many more possibilities. For example, many might be Democrats in name only, who have voted Republican (at least on the national level) for the most part but never cared enough about the primaries to change their party affiliation. If you tell me that many of those who switched parties to vote for Trump voted for Obama in the last two election cycles, then I would start to worry. But, until shown evidence to the contrary, I am skeptical. Basically, what you got is a bunch of hearsay and statistics presented with no thoughtful analysis of them. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/179 "2016-03-09T01:17:45Z")
**DerekMichaels00** : On the Israel thing, it should be noted that [some people argue Trump is the least supportive Republican toward Israel](http://www.vox.com/2016/3/8/11175136/donald-trump-benjamin-netanyahu-gop), even more evidence of the vacuousness of your thesis. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/180 "2016-03-09T16:02:24Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > A lot of truth in that. > > Female candidates actually benefit from a double-standard in this area, in that things said to or about them are apt to be interpreted as having sexist meanings when similar things said about male candidates are par for the course. So their opponents need to tread very carefully while they themselves are under no constraints. So if Hillary talks about Trumps “small hands” that would be OK? [quote] In 1984, then-VP George Bush felt he did well in his debate against Geraldine Ferraro, and he told some his supporters on the way out that “we kicked some ass”. This was widely interpreted in the media as a crude sexual reference to Ferraro’s anatomy. [quote] Didn’t he win that one? I remember that campaign and back then just saying ass was still kinda racy. > [@](#): > > On a similar note, Hillary Clinton herself benefited from this in her initial Senate campaign. Her opponent was a Republican congressman named Rick Lazio, and one central point of Lazio’s campaign was that he wanted her to pledge to do/not do something or other if elected (possibly having to do with tax increases, but I don’t recall for certain). During their debate Lazio left his podium and walked over to Clinton’s, holding his paper and challenging her to sign it. A bit of silly political theater. But this was widely interpreted in the media as an invasion of her personal space by a man, a matter that was thought to especially resonate with female voters. This dominated coverage of the race in the immediate aftermath of the debate and Lazio’s poll numbers tanked. And the rest is history … Are you under the impression that Lazio was even close to winning before that? His numbers were shitty through the entire race. > [@](#): > > So far this type of thing has not really harmed Trump, because his supporters are the component of the electorate which is completely fed up with political correctness. But I don’t see this holding in the general election - there aren’t enough of such people. Trump hasn’t commented on any woman’s ass size yet. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810/181 "2016-03-09T16:04:40Z")
[quote=“Ryan\_Liam, post:81, topic:747810”] Whenever I think of Donald Trump being president, I’m always taken back to that dead zone clip of Martin Sheen causing WWIII. [/QUOTE] You really think Trump holding a baby in front of him to block an assassin’s bullet would tank his campaign? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-predict-that-donald-trump-is-going-to-win-the-election-for-potus-this-year/747810.md?page=10)