I can see Trump getting the nomination. The GOP failed to take him seriously enough to develop a coherent strategy to deal with him, and having too many candidates shooting each other allowed Trump to get into this position.
The GOP has broken up into three groups: the traditional conservative purists, the once-dominant, now weakened, mainstream group and the angry populists which Trump has rallied.
However, while the angry populists are a large minority in the GOP, they become a smaller minority in the general election voters.
We can assume that most of the GOP voters and some of the independent voters will vote for anyone but Clinton, if they bother to vote. Most of the Democrats will come around to Clinton in the general election. One key question will be of the turnout.
However, if you look at a map of the states, it becomes a numbers game. From here, their analysis has 11 swing states, representing 130 electoral votes and the Democrats have 217 to the GOP’s 191. That article is based on analysis from here, which put only four states Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia with 69 votes as complete tossups, while others are leaning one way or another. They have 263 either safe, leaning or tilting Democrat and 206 for the GOP.
The minority vote is becoming an increasingly larger share, as can be seen in this article. Florida, for example as whites as only 64.5% of the eligible voters. Overall, 69% of the voters will be white, (Pew Research), 12% black, 12% Hispanic, and 4% Asian.
USA Today, has an article which says
This will be increasingly troublesome in swing states.
The Pew Research article notes that
Trump could very well help motive that groups to come out stronger.
The other factor is Trump’s dismal favorable rating among general election voters which consistantly has a much more negative rating than Clinton’s.
