# I think the democrats are a permanent minority party **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2018, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218 "2018-11-08T22:45:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/21 "2018-11-09T00:52:57Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > What happens if the Democrats just throw up their hands and say, _oh, we agree with the GOP on immigration, so that debate’s now over; are we likewise in agreement on health care? No? Huh. Okay, so: should we debate that, now?_ The smart play on health care would be to ju-jitsu the recent flood of Republican bullshit and declare “We want to work with the Republicans to keep their promise to protect people with preexisting conditions from being denied coverage or charged more.” The attentive student may note that the Republicans didn’t actually promise the latter even while lying through their teeth. This is a variation on the “Pigfucker Ploy”, named after LBJ’s observation about the value of making the other guy deny it. ---
**Author:** ![survinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@survinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/survinga)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/22 "2018-11-09T01:05:33Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I used to think Karl Rove was full of shit with his talk of a permanent GOP majority. There is no way a party like the GOP, which when you ignore what they say they stand for (small government, middle class tax cuts, middle class jobs) and look at what they actually do, really only stands for 2 things. Plutocracy and white identity politics. I didn’t think it was possible to build a long standing coalition on white identity politics and economic policies that benefit the wealthy. But it is. > > In 2012, the GOP lost the popular vote in the house by 1%, and won 234 seats. > > In 2018, the democrats won the popular vote in the house by 6%, and won 225 seats. > > Gerrymandering plays a role, but democrats being in urban areas plays a big role too. > > There are arguably more red states than blue states (something like 30 red states). So the senate will probably be GOP for the forseeable future. Granted, Obama won slightly more states than the GOP in 2008 and 2012, but in 2000, 2004, 2016, the GOP won about 30 states vs about 20 for the democrats. > > The electoral college is biased towards the GOP. They’ve lost the popular vote 2x in the last 20 years and still won the presidency. > > So call me a pessimist, but I think the democrats are looking at permanent minority status for the next 20 years or so. At least until the silent generation and the oldest baby boomers die off and are replaced by millennials. > > Am I wrong? Someone prove me wrong. > > If I’m right, what should the democrats do? Should we focus more on state and local politics instead of federal? Should we throw all our weight into capturing one branch of federal office (the presidency seems our best shot) to prevent GOP legislation from being passed? Should we assume the senate is still in play for us? I know the democrats had 60 senators as recently as 2008, but whites w/o college have left the democratic party in droves since then. But then again, democrats have gained some college educated whites in the meanwhile. Plus the % of voters who are millennials or minorities has grown. > > I know some people say ‘you shouldn’t worry about politics’. But at this point there are 2 things I care deeply about with politics. Affordable, reliable health care, and democracy. And I see the GOP as a threat to both of them. If the GOP weren’t a threat to them, I probably wouldn’t care nearly as much. > > Granted neither party has any interest in truly reforming health care (ie, changing how it is run so that it is more affordable). But at least the democrats aren’t trying to destroy medicare and medicaid, or trying to eliminate coverage for pre-existing conditions, or trying to make it harder to sign up on the exchanges. And the democrats aren’t moving towards authoritarianism. Things ebb and flow. The Dems are not a permanent minority party. They just won the House, and they now are governors in almost half the states. They’ve been the POTUS 16 out of the last 26 years. And they were the majority in Senate up until 2014. Red & Blue states aren’t static. Some shift colors over time. Some grow more red, and some grow more blue, and some become purple (Virginia used to be red, and is now more purplish). As a former Republican, there were times when I tap-danced on what I thought was the grave of Democratic electoral chances, and I was proven wrong. At this point, I do think the Dems fell asleep a little after Obama was elected, and they got out-worked by Republicans - hence, the gerrymandering. But the Trump election woke them up. I think the Dems, in the near term, are going to continue to surge. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/23 "2018-11-09T01:15:34Z")
Again, what is with all this pessimism? Why are people even bringing up these things as legitimate? We just gained a majority in one House, and you’re trying to argue that we might be a permanent minority? That is literally and factually impossible, because we just won a majority. **I’ve never seen people respond so pessimistically to an electoral victory.** Are y’all watching Fox News now or something? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/24 "2018-11-09T01:22:32Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Again, what is with all this pessimism? Why are people even bringing up these things as legitimate? We just gained a majority in one House, and you’re trying to argue that we might be a permanent minority? That is literally and factually impossible, because we just won a majority. > > **I’ve never seen people respond so pessimistically to an electoral victory.** > > Are y’all watching Fox News now or something? We gained a smaller majority in the house by winning by 6%, than the GOP won by losing by 1%. Thats a problem. If government truly represented voters equally I wouldn’t feel this way. But the house, senate and presidency all reward republican voters more than democratic voters. Democrats need to maintain a 3-6% advantage in elections just to break even due to the structural disadvantages they face. Throw in gerrymandering and voter suppression, and feeling pessimistic is perfectly reasonable. Throw in the democrats general lack of willingness to use the power given to them by voters, and the pessimism gets even worse. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/25 "2018-11-09T02:02:36Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Doesn’t make it a good idea. Being able to extort that from the larger states was, is, and will continue to be a horrible injustice. > > Hypothetical: say 3 people each lived in 49 states and 300,000,000 in the remaining. You would be ok with the 147 people having 98 senators? If not, what proportion do you consider acceptable? Oh well. Form a new constitution and in essence a new country then. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/26 "2018-11-09T02:22:23Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Well… about that, it is not so clear that Democrats should: > > [Voters oust Republican sheriffs who collaborated with ICE to deport immigrants](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/8/1811312/-Voters-oust-Republican-sheriffs-who-collaborated-with-ICE-to-deport-immigrants#read-more) > > [Trump's racist strategy backfires: 'Candidates who hitched their wagon to Trump lost decidedly'](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/7/1810901/-Trump-s-racist-strategy-backfires-Candidates-who-hitched-their-wagon-to-Trump-lost-decidedly) You probably should read dailykos articles with a little more of a critical eye. First of, whoopdie doo that “a number” of sheriffs lost on ICE cooperation. And wow, Oregan kept a law on sanctuary cities. Thanks Portland, I mean Oregon. The Dems could probably triangulate a little better on immigration but most definitely on gun control and voter id. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/27 "2018-11-09T03:06:29Z")
Also, societies usually only trend further and further liberal with time. Sure, every now and then there’s a conservative backlash (i.e., Brazil going Bolsonaro,) but the strong undercurrent of modern history is liberal and liberal. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/28 "2018-11-09T03:26:24Z")
How about this idea: Democrats should stop focusing on being the party that appeals to urban voters, and instead try to be a party that appeals to a broader cross-section of voters. There was a time Democrats did that. Not shockingly, they tended to win a bit more in Congress. But, by all means, continue to be the party of the urban poor and those who want to do good by them, and then complain that the deck is stacked against you, because you’ve chosen poorly what you should stand for. Or, rather, please DON’T continue to do that, because it’s what allows the Republican Party to be filled with some real idiots any more. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/29 "2018-11-09T03:26:40Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Also, societies usually only trend further and further liberal with time. Sure, every now and then there’s a conservative backlash (i.e., Brazil going Bolsonaro,) but the strong undercurrent of modern history is liberal and liberal. I tend to agree, but the whole rise of fascism is making me not sure. It seems like societies move towards liberal democracy, social democracy, a welfare state, social egalitarianism, etc. But who knows anymore. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/30 "2018-11-09T03:26:43Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Also, societies usually only trend further and further liberal with time. Sure, every now and then there’s a conservative backlash (i.e., Brazil going Bolsonaro,) but the strong undercurrent of modern history is liberal and liberal. How about Russia, China and Turkey? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/31 "2018-11-09T03:31:14Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > How about this idea: Democrats should stop focusing on being the party that appeals to urban voters, and instead try to be a party that appeals to a broader cross-section of voters. There was a time Democrats did that. Not shockingly, they tended to win a bit more in Congress. > > But, by all means, continue to be the party of the urban poor and those who want to do good by them, and then complain that the deck is stacked against you, because you’ve chosen poorly what you should stand for. Or, rather, please DON’T continue to do that, because it’s what allows the Republican Party to be filled with some real idiots any more. The democrats are hemorrhaging support from whites w/o a college education lately. As recently as 1996, whites w/o a college degree mildly preferred the democrats. In 2016 they preferred the GOP by 39 points. When you lose that much support from a group that make up 1/3 of voters, it is going to hurt. [![](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/FT_16.11.09_exitPolls_education.png) ](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/FT_16.11.09_exitPolls_education.png) The issue is how do we appeal to them without giving up our values as democrats? If the reason they left the democrats is because they oppose feminism, racial justice, gay rights, etc. how do we appeal to them without giving up our own values? I have no idea. Hopefully a strong economic message would appeal to a few of them. But I think the democrats have let themselves be painted as limp wristed pussies, which will make it very hard for them to get support from people who tend to subscribe to traditional masculine values. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/32 "2018-11-09T03:43:41Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You probably should read dailykos articles with a little more of a critical eye. First of, whoopdie doo that “a number” of sheriffs lost on ICE cooperation. And wow, Oregan kept a law on sanctuary cities. Thanks Portland, I mean Oregon. One should notice that you had to omit the loss of guys guys like “I was anti-immigrant before Trump showed up” Kris Kobach in Kansas to make a point. In any case, as the Atlantic reported, Republican gains in the senate obtained in great part by race baiting can not hide the fact that the xenophobic and anti-ACA Trumpian message took a beating in most house races. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/33 "2018-11-09T03:48:34Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > In 2018, the democrats won the popular vote in the house by 6%, and won 225 seats. That’s not counting the still undecided seats. Final tally will probably be in the 229-235 range. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/34 "2018-11-09T04:54:12Z")
I’m going to do a bad analogy here because I like bad analogies: I’ve often said that red states never have real fiscal problems, because their fiscal problems tend to come from tax cuts, not spending commitments. So they can solve their fiscal problems just by raising taxes, whereas blue states have to figure out how to get out of fiscal commitments they made that might be legally difficult not to mention politically terrifying. Democrats have a similar problem as red states. They have a huge reservoir of voters they COULD win, but choose not to cater to them. Solving their political problem is easy: restore the DLC and Jim Webb wings of the party to their former glory. Then they win enough white working class voters to win elections again and the Senate goes back to 2006-era difficulty, rather than the Red Wall it seems to be today. Republicans, on the other hand, can’t win any new voters. They’ve maximixed their voting base and turnout probably can’t get much higher than it is. Their only path to more voters is a longterm plan to change their image. Which would take at least 20 years to really bear fruit. In the meantime, the Democrats could be poaching those Obama/Trump, Reagan Democrat voters. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/35 "2018-11-09T05:58:35Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > One should notice that you had to omit the loss of guys guys like “I was anti-immigrant before Trump showed up” Kris Kobach in Kansas to make a point. In any case, as the Atlantic reported, Republican gains in the senate obtained in great part by race baiting can not hide the fact that the xenophobic and anti-ACA Trumpian message took a beating in most house races. I didn’t have to omit anything to merely point out a couple of eye-roll worthy pieces of evidence in your quotes. Maybe you should have linked and quoted the Atlantic article rather than some high spirited dailykos sumup. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/36 "2018-11-09T14:39:19Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > I don’t get it: you’re talking about people who currently prefer Democrats to the GOP, but who _wouldn’t_ prefer the Democrats for a myriad of other reasons if this one were a tie? Okay, first we need to discuss what is meant by throwing up our hands and giving in. It is a false impression that democrats are for open borders. We are simply for humane treatment of those who are looking to immigrate. So, do we throw up our hands and give our blessing to family separation policies? We also do think that immigration is good for the country’s economy, and this is backed by numerous studies, do we throw up our hands and concede to having a weaker economy? We think that the wall is a massive waste of money, it is environmentally disastrous, is a serious problem to american citizens who live on the border who will be having to give up their property to accommodate the wall, will have virtually no effect on immigration, and is a negative symbol the belies our advertising that we are a nation of freedoms. Do we throw up our hands and allow this ill conceived project to continue? Do we need to agree to amending the constitution to get rid of birthright citizenship, do we need to agree that anyone who was born to a midwife should be suspect of immigration fraud, should we agree to racially profiling people based on the color of their skin (people who can trace their family history back to before the founding of our nation) to enhance enforcement of immigration policies? What is it, exactly that the democrats are supposed to give in to to assuage the irrational fears of anti-immigrant xenophobes? You tell me what “giving in on immigration” looks like, and I’ll tell you if it is worth it. > [@](#): > > I’m saying drop one issue if you think you can win the rest of the issues by dropping that one, and if you think you’ll lose the rest if you _don’t_ drop that one. Do you really think that by dropping just one issue, suddenly all the other things that the democrats want to do to improve the country will become possible? Even if we get behind building a wall with machine gun nests, condoning separating families who try to come here, weakening our economy by stifling growth, and demonstrating to the world that we are no longer a shining city on a hill, but rather a festering ghetto behind a fence, does that mean that republicans will agree to allowing people to have healthcare? > [@](#): > > If I’m wrong about that — if capitulating on immigration _won’t_ get them everything else — then, sure, it’s a different story. But if I’m right, and that happens to be the one thing they don’t get if they capitulate _and_ it’s one of the many things they don’t get if they refuse to capitulate? What’s the upside? I do think that you are wrong on that. If we give them everything that they want on immigration, then they will just demand more on tax cuts, on reproductive rights, and on cutting spending. Even if you are right on that, what exactly does it mean to capitulate on immigration, and what kind of healthcare plan do you really think we can get for that trade? > [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > How about this idea: Democrats should stop focusing on being the party that appeals to urban voters, and instead try to be a party that appeals to a broader cross-section of voters. There was a time Democrats did that. Not shockingly, they tended to win a bit more in Congress. the problem with that, is that most people live in cities. That is why democrats tend to get more of the vote than republicans. Republicans get their support from empty swaths of uninhabited land. Republicans tend to live in places where people just don’t want to live. There are fewer economic opportunities, so they have to rely on the government to support them. Unfortunately, the way that our system is set up, it rewards the states that people don’t want to live in by giving the same voice in government as the states that do have economic opportunities that draw people to live there. That there are more states that have low populations that need to receive federal government support to survive and have the political power to force the urbanized states to contribute to their welfare is not the fault of the democrats. he democrats actually worked for the people in those states by trying to strengthen worker protections and unions, but the republicans that the people who were being helped by the democrats managed to get people to support their dismantling of their own protections. > [@](#): > > But, by all means, continue to be the party of the urban poor and those who want to do good by them, and then complain that the deck is stacked against you, because you’ve chosen poorly what you should stand for. Or, rather, please DON’T continue to do that, because it’s what allows the Republican Party to be filled with some real idiots any more. I’ll agree that the right wing has done a good job at making the smear that the democrats only care about the urban poor, but that is not the only people that are represented by the democrats. That there are those who are helped by democratic policies, but still choose to vote for the party who tries to remove those policies is not the fault of the democratic policies. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/37 "2018-11-09T14:52:16Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I didn’t have to omit anything to merely point out a couple of eye-roll worthy pieces of evidence in your quotes. Maybe you should have linked and quoted the Atlantic article rather than some high spirited dailykos sumup. Nowhere you can show that they were wrong. What you did is illogically shooting the messenger. And I did point from the very beginning that I don’t see how clear the point was from the poster I replied to (Now that, what he said, demanded an eye roll and a reply). He did so by only picking the examples of dubious or close republican gains as reasons for the Democrats to drop their support for immigrants or legalization efforts, while ignoring what took place in the House elections or how the ground is shifting in places like Texas. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/38 "2018-11-09T16:33:42Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > That’s not counting the still undecided seats. Final tally will probably be in the 229-235 range. Maybe even more than that. The NYT shows the Dems have now won 230 seats, with 13 left undecided. According to 538, the Dems are in good positions in 10 of them. Final results indicate that this was a very good election for the Dems at all levels except the senate, and even there they won almost all the swing state seats that were up. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/39 "2018-11-09T16:41:31Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I used to think Karl Rove was full of shit with his talk of a permanent GOP majority. There is no way a party like the GOP, which when you ignore what they say they stand for (small government, middle class tax cuts, middle class jobs) and look at what they actually do, really only stands for 2 things. Plutocracy and white identity politics. I didn’t think it was possible to build a long standing coalition on white identity politics and economic policies that benefit the wealthy. But it is. > > In 2012, the GOP lost the popular vote in the house by 1%, and won 234 seats. > > In 2018, the democrats won the popular vote in the house by 6%, and won 225 seats. > > Gerrymandering plays a role, but democrats being in urban areas plays a big role too. > > There are arguably more red states than blue states (something like 30 red states). So the senate will probably be GOP for the forseeable future. Granted, Obama won slightly more states than the GOP in 2008 and 2012, but in 2000, 2004, 2016, the GOP won about 30 states vs about 20 for the democrats. > > The electoral college is biased towards the GOP. They’ve lost the popular vote 2x in the last 20 years and still won the presidency. > > So call me a pessimist, but I think the democrats are looking at permanent minority status for the next 20 years or so. At least until the silent generation and the oldest baby boomers die off and are replaced by millennials. > > Am I wrong? Someone prove me wrong. > > If I’m right, what should the democrats do? Should we focus more on state and local politics instead of federal? Should we throw all our weight into capturing one branch of federal office (the presidency seems our best shot) to prevent GOP legislation from being passed? Should we assume the senate is still in play for us? I know the democrats had 60 senators as recently as 2008, but whites w/o college have left the democratic party in droves since then. But then again, democrats have gained some college educated whites in the meanwhile. Plus the % of voters who are millennials or minorities has grown. > > I know some people say ‘you shouldn’t worry about politics’. But at this point there are 2 things I care deeply about with politics. Affordable, reliable health care, and democracy. And I see the GOP as a threat to both of them. If the GOP weren’t a threat to them, I probably wouldn’t care nearly as much. > > Granted neither party has any interest in truly reforming health care (ie, changing how it is run so that it is more affordable). But at least the democrats aren’t trying to destroy medicare and medicaid, or trying to eliminate coverage for pre-existing conditions, or trying to make it harder to sign up on the exchanges. And the democrats aren’t moving towards authoritarianism. Perhaps the Dems should learn that winning the popular vote, especially wrt the presidency is meaningless and instead stop mentioning it and focus on winning the contests the way they actually work? Just a thought. I don’t think the Pubs have a permanent majority nor are the Dems some sort of permanent minority. US politics just don’t work that way. I think the Dems had the greatest run of control in the past, but even that eventually changed. The Pubs, however, haven’t come close to the longevity of control the Dems enjoyed previously for decades. And I fully expect in the next presidential election the Dems to boot Trump out…assuming they will grasp the concept that winning the popular vote means exactly nothing in the US with our system. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218/40 "2018-11-09T16:46:49Z")
Can I just throw some water on the panic here? Take some deep breaths. Democrats won the House vote in 25 States this week. Those States have a total of 314 Electoral votes. Most notably, PA/MI/WI/MN all went Democratic by comfortable margins. If Tuesday’s pattern holds in the 2020 Senate election, Dems would pick up 3 seats. That doesn’t include Arizona, so 4 seems realistically possible. We can’t get complacent, and it’s going to be a tough fight, but we are winning. All the demographic trends are working in our favor. It doesn’t do any good to gripe about ways the system is rigged against us that we can’t change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-the-democrats-are-a-permanent-minority-party/824218.md?page=3)