# I Think We Have Lost **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 14, 2022, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792 "2022-01-14T16:31:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2022, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/221 "2022-03-05T07:50:13Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > I’m giving 50% odds that at least one of these yahoo governors issues an executive order restricting the curriculum of Black History month. February is over. DId your ~~rant~~ prediction come true? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2022, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/222 "2022-03-05T10:27:00Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > > > I’m giving 50% odds that at least one of these yahoo governors issues an executive order restricting the curriculum of Black History month. > > February is over. DId your ~~rant~~ prediction come true? - Which part of 50% did you miss? ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2022, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/223 "2022-03-05T20:11:19Z")
Yeah, I didn’t think she’d admit she was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2022, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/224 "2022-03-05T20:14:28Z")
She’s equally right. So I don’t really get the purpose of your post here. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/225 "2022-03-06T00:21:59Z")
Just that it was a silly rant, not based in reality. Looking back, that observation applies to many posts in this thread. Republicans are not bringing the end of the world as we know it, and it’s more than a tad overwrought to suggest otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/226 "2022-03-06T00:35:53Z")
If you give 50% odds to something that either is or isn’t true, you literally can’t be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/227 "2022-03-06T00:42:27Z")
So if I give 50% odds that deep down, the moon really is made of green cheese, I can’t be wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/228 "2022-03-06T00:43:06Z")
Yes. Because it’s a meaningless tautology. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/229 "2022-03-06T03:48:21Z")
I hope you never took a statistics course…. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/230 "2022-03-06T05:19:15Z")
It’s not even a tautology and it’s only 13% more ridiculous than the other example. Concerning statistics, 50% isn’t literally right with a situation that is binary if the distribution isn’t equivalent. Saying there is a 50% chance to win or lose the lottery when there is only those two outcomes for the individual buying a single ticket is obviously wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/231 "2022-03-06T06:30:51Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Concerning statistics, 50% isn’t literally right with a situation that is binary if the distribution isn’t equivalent. Saying there is a 50% chance to win or lose the lottery when there is only those two outcomes for the individual buying a single ticket is obviously wrong. I think this went over your head a bit, octo. Nobody was talking about the accuracy of the probability. Because there was no criticism of the statistics. The criticism was that Ann was wrong about the outcome. Yet no matter what happened, Ann couldn’t be wrong. When in a binary situation, you say either can be true, that **is** a tautology. That’s the definition of binary. You clearly missed a key part of the conversation. Let’s say someone is tossing a ball into a basket and I say they have a 10% chance of making it, and they make it. You can’t say I was wrong because they made the basket. I obviously allowed for that possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/232 "2022-03-06T09:21:49Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Republicans are not bringing the end of the world as we know it, and it’s more than a tad overwrought to suggest otherwise. Sure, as long as you’re a white, heterosexual, well-off male, everything will be fine. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/233 "2022-03-06T13:49:50Z")
It may be worth bringing ‘Young Sheldon’ into this one: > [@](#): > > Pastor Jeff : Sometimes people say to me, “Pastor Jeff, how do you know there’s a God?” And I say “It’s simple math. God either exists or he doesn’t.” So let’s be cynical. Worst-case scenario, there’s a 50-50 chance, And I like those odds. > > Sheldon : [raising his hand] That’s wrong. > > Mary : [sotto voce] Shelly, put your hand down. > > [to Pastor Jeff] > > Mary : Sorry, Please continue. > > Pastor Jeff : That’s okay, Mary. It’s Sheldon, right? > > Sheldon : Yes, sir. > > Pastor Jeff : Well, Sheldon, why don’t you come on up here and tell me why I’m wrong. > > Mary : No! > > Sheldon : Okay. > > [heads on up] > > Pastor Jeff : Let’s give him a hand, everybody. > > Missy : [waking up] What’s happening? > > Meemaw : [to Mary] Shelly’s gonna eat him alive. > > Pastor Jeff : So, you were saying? > > Sheldon : You’ve confused possibilities with probabilities. According to your analogy, when I go home I might find a million dollars on my bed or I might not. In what universe is that 50-50? > > Pastor Jeff : So, what do you think the odds are that God exists? > > Sheldon : I think they’re zero. I believe in science. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/234 "2022-03-06T15:08:57Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > > > I’m giving 50% odds that at least one of these yahoo governors issues an executive order restricting the curriculum of Black History month. > > February is over. DId your ~~rant~~ prediction come true? Actually, it was a rant masquerading as a prediction. If I may argue @Ann_Hedonia’s case, she was simply using “50% odds” as a rhetorical shorthand for “GOP governors are so bigoted and clueless, it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them …” etc. etc. She wasn’t literally predicting (or even establishing odds) that one of them would do it . ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/235 "2022-03-06T19:47:00Z")
No. The compound statement that includes odds is definitely wrong. Why? Because the assertion that there was a 50% chance was wrong not the outcome. Again you wouldn’t use that fallacious understanding of statistics with regards to the lottery. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/236 "2022-03-06T20:33:10Z")
You’re just embarrassing yourself at this point. Best to stop digging. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2022, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/237 "2022-03-06T20:34:18Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > You’re just embarrassing yourself at this point. Best to stop digging. - But digging is _fun!!!_ And _so_ unproductive. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/238 "2022-03-07T00:44:53Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Actually, it was a rant masquerading as a prediction. It was a rant. But whether rants belong in the Pit or PE depends on whose ox is being gored, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/239 "2022-03-07T02:16:19Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > But whether rants belong in the Pit or PE depends on whose ox is being gored, apparently. I think you’re mixing up OPs and responses here. AIUI, the mods don’t like people starting PE threads with an OP that’s basically a rant and not a discussion. But that doesn’t mean that the mods are going to smack posters for occasional driveby quips and zingers in responses. I mean, you yourself have posted plenty adversarial one-liners in P&E threads that didn’t really contribute anything to the discussion, without getting modded for it. If you thought the OP was too ranty for a debate forum, you could have mentioned it back in January, but you didn’t. At present, the only one here who seems to be displaying unequal tolerance for rantiness depending on whose ideological ox the rant is goring is you. And it does come across as just trying to deflect attention from your somewhat embarrassingly off-the-point question to Ann\_Hedonia. Obviously, if somebody is offering 50% odds that something will happen, they are by definition not “predicting” that it actually will happen, or even claiming that it’s more likely to happen than not to happen. Giving 50% odds is in fact a mathematically precise way of declaring that you think the potential event is exactly as likely not to occur as it is to occur. You really can’t get less “prediction-y” than that. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792/240 "2022-03-07T02:30:21Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > is exactly as likely not to occur as it is to occur. Except for the fact that it was never remotely likely to occur. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-think-we-have-lost/957792.md?page=13)