# I voted for Obama & I don't think Hillary Clinton has prayer of being the next POTUS **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 15, 2014, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404 "2014-02-15T07:26:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/21 "2014-02-15T19:31:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > How could Hillary not want to be the first female POTUS? Seriously, she’s one ambitious lady (and I say that in a good way), and to have that in your reach and so “no thanks” is, to me, unimaginable. 1. It’s a ton of work. 2. She’s getting older. 3. Why not kick back and enjoy the rest of your life? I won’t be shocked if she runs, but I’m not predicting it. ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/22 "2014-02-15T19:38:41Z")
I have a long-standing dislike and distrust of Hillary Clinton, formed as I watched her push censorship measures years ago. She’s been talking out of the other side of her mouth lately, but I still don’t trust her on First Amendment issues. That said, I would still cheerfully vote for her over anyone the Republicans will nominate, because the current GOP must not be allowed that much control. For that matter, I would vote for her in the primaries over Biden, because I dislike him more. ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/23 "2014-02-15T19:43:05Z")
> [@astro](#): > > Re political leanings I like to think of myself as being MOR leaning progressive these days, but I honestly don’t think Hillary Clinton has a prayer being the next POTUS and it’s not on political grounds or the basis of her positions that I believe this. I just don’t think she has enough personal charisma to pull it off with enough voters. She’s very appealing to certain demographics, but if you want to be President you need to be able to reach and convince a wide swath of the electorate that you are the man or women for the job. Those “certain demographics” are overrepresented in Democratic primaries making her the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Frankly I’d rather you were right since any meaningful challenge would have to come from the left. > [@](#): > > Reasonable people can disagree, but I just don’t think she has the required mass likeability and connection with people to be able to do this. “Doing this” doesn’t entail connecting positively with more voters than anyone else in the country. It only requires being seen as less evil than the Republican nominee in at least about a third of the swing states. Things can change but for Dems the harder part looks to be getting the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/24 "2014-02-15T19:56:05Z")
> [@ekedolphin](#): > > BUT GOD, please not Hillary Clinton OR Sarah Palin. They’re BOTH daffy. Holy fuck, the only thing Palin and Hillary have in common is two X chromosomes. It isn’t going to be Hillary vs. some ideal candidate you’d rather see come, it’s going to be: Hillary v. Rand Paul Blowout Hillary v. Ted Cruz Blowout Hillary v. Romney Blowout Hillary v. Rubio Blowout Hillary v. ??? Blowout Seriously, the only thing she has to worry about is whether she wants to run. Charisma? She’s got enough. And as one great American said, she’s likeable enough. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/25 "2014-02-15T20:48:16Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > I’m not so sure. My husband used to really dislike her, but just the other day he told me he’d vote for her. I agree with this. As a New Yorker and a gamer, I hated Hilary on two fronts during her Senate days. But she did a good job as Sec of State and I can’t imagine ever voting for a Republican, so she’s got my vote. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/26 "2014-02-15T21:23:13Z")
At this stage it’s hard to say that any candidate doesn’t have a prayer. Nobody’s really campaigning right now, but every poll shows that if she runs, she’s a huge favorite in the Democratic primaries. If she’s the nominee against a Generic Republican or any Republican you can think of, how low could her odds possibly get? Maybe 40%? The electoral map in 2016 isn’t going to be all that different from the one we had in 2012. A few states could flip the other way, and that means any nominee at least has a shot, even if (like McCain and Romney) the fundamentals are bad for them and they need some significant breaks. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/27 "2014-02-15T21:54:31Z")
So what if the Pubbies throw a female candidate against Hilary? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/28 "2014-02-15T21:58:36Z")
> [@Amateur\_Barbarian](#): > > So what if the Pubbies throw a female candidate against Hilary? I don’t see how that changes things much. They tried running a black guy against Obama in the Illinois Senate race, and that didn’t work out too well. Although there are some non-crazy female Republican politicians, I don’t think any would beat Mrs. Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2014, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/29 "2014-02-15T22:18:06Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > …every poll shows that if she runs, she’s a huge favorite in the Democratic primaries. That was true in 2008 too, though, and we saw that “inevitability” was all she really had going for her. Once someone punctures that, her support melts away. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/30 "2014-02-16T01:26:16Z")
> [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > That was true in 2008 too, though Yes, it was. It still applies here. > [@](#): > > and we saw that “inevitability” was all she really had going for her. Once someone punctures that, her support melts away. Yeah, that’s not even close to what happened. Her support didn’t melt away (she kept winning states until the very end), although some people did jump ship to Obama when they realized he had a chance. What happened in 2008 was that she was a major favorite, but there was another very strong candidate in the race. She’d staked out a position as the experienced candidate in a year when people were looking for change. That, combined with the fact that Obama’s people ran a very smart campaign and used the caucus process to their advantage when Clinton’s campaign didn’t think to do so, is why she lost. None of that precludes her from being the overwhelming favorite now. This time she’s in an even stronger position coming off a four-year term in the State Department that made her more popular with everybody, she probably won’t make the same exact mistakes again, and I don’t think there’s another Obama in the field. None of which is to say she’ll definitely win. But saying she doesn’t have a prayer is ridiculous. At this early stage, she’s the person most likely to be the nominee. That means she’s got a pretty good chance to be president. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/31 "2014-02-16T01:30:36Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > No chance she gets the Democrat nomination. In fact, I don’t think she will even seek it. > > However, I would say she is the odds on favorite at this point for the Democratic nomination. I’m confused by how you can predict both that Clinton is the favorite and that she has no chance of being nominated. Are you predicting the Democrat party is going to disappear? ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/32 "2014-02-16T02:10:08Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’m confused by how you can predict both that Clinton is the favorite and that she has no chance of being nominated. Are you predicting the Democrat party is going to disappear? There is no “Democrat” party. There is, however, a “Democratic” party. Took me a minute, too. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/33 "2014-02-16T02:37:31Z")
We will have had 8 years of Obama and anemic job growth during that whole time. I have no idea if a dem will win in 2016. Part of me hopes a republican will win in 2016 just so people can see that the job growth issue isn’t going to get better with a different party in charge. I don’t know if Obama’s record is enough for the next dem to stand up and say ‘lets have more of this’. His foreign policy is good, but as far as domestic job growth and economics he doesn’t have much to run on (other than the stimulus which stopped the job losses, but that has become very politicized). So long as Obamacare remains the law of the land I really don’t care if a GOP president wins. By 2017 Obamacare will have had 3 years of enrollment and subsidies, and taking them away will be hard. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/34 "2014-02-16T03:06:26Z")
If she runs it depends on who runs against and how successfully they market themselves. Both Rand Paul and Paul Ryan have tried hard in past months to straddle the line that gives them the far Right they need to win primaries while trying to appear grown-up and rational. Can either of them pull it off? It really is too early to say they cannot. Predicting a blow-out is way premature. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/35 "2014-02-16T03:10:55Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I don’t see how that changes things much. They tried running a black guy against Obama in the Illinois Senate race, and that didn’t work out too well. Although there are some non-crazy female Republican politicians, I don’t think any would beat Mrs. Clinton. As an aside, that race gave the world a new concept regarding the scary levels of loopiness that are out there. > **[Crazification factor](https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Crazification_factor)** > > Crazification factor (alternatively known as the "Keyes constant"\[1\]) is a neologism coined in 2005 by blogger and screenwriter John Rogers\[2\] to refer to the portion of the electorate comprising the nuttiest of the wingnuts and the batshit crazy, or... > [@](#): > > [The] Crazification Factor is a neologism coined by blogger John Rogers to refer to the portion of the electorate comprising the nuttiest of the wingnuts and the batshit crazy. The original passage relates to the 2004 Senate election in Illinois, and reads: > > > [@](#): > > > > Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population.[1] ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/36 "2014-02-16T03:11:31Z")
No Republican has won a presidential election by a margin of one than more state since 1988. The Democrats won by comfortable margins in 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012. I considered voting for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries but decided on Obama after reading his books. I’d also read both Bill Clinton’s and Hillary Clinton’s books. I voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and I’d certainly vote for Hillary in 2016. She was wrong on the Iraq war, Part 2 and I don’t agree with her on every single issue. However, she and I agree on the bulk of the current issues. I’m also thinking of the judiciary. The Supreme Court matters and so do the many federal judges. I’d rather have a Democrat appointing those judges than a Republican. I’d happily vote for Hillary Clinton for pr ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/37 "2014-02-16T03:16:25Z")
Hmm, I suspect that Sarah Palin got to **dalej42**. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Bellhorn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@Bellhorn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bellhorn)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/38 "2014-02-16T03:41:25Z")
I’ll probably vote for any reasonable Democratic opponent that opts to run vs Clinton in the primaries, but if she wins the nomination, she’s got my vote in November 2016. I do think that a Democratic candidate, running as a populist can defeat Clinton. Warren is a possibility, although I don’t think she could assemble a strong enough campaign and fund-raising effort over the next year or so. Hillary always strikes me as insincere, and I think that makes her vulnerable to a candidate that is able to convince voters of his or her passion. In fact, I’m more than a little bit worried that if Hillary does win the nomination, that she’s vulnerable to a passionate GOP candidate, even though the electoral deck is now stacked against the GOP. But none of the current boobs that are mentioned seem to be threats. Where’s Herman Cain when you need him. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/39 "2014-02-16T03:42:18Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > And it’s also possible that a lack of warmth may be seen as an advantage for Clinton. A lot of Democrats may feel that Obama’s problem was he tried too hard to reach out to Republicans. There could be a backlash and Democrats might decide they’d rather have a candidate who will attack back against her attackers. Problem is, Obama spends almost all of his time attacking Republicans, and the Clintons have always worked with Republicans. Name one bipartisan accomplishment OBama had before reaching the Presidency. Just one. He was a legislator for long enough that surely there’s one in his past. ---
**Author:** ![Bellhorn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/898d66/32.png) [@Bellhorn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bellhorn)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2014, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404/40 "2014-02-16T04:01:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … > > Name one bipartisan accomplishment OBama had before reaching the Presidency. Just one. He was a legislator for long enough that surely there’s one in his past. While in the Senate, Obama worked with his GOP colleagues Lugar and Hagel on WMD control. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-voted-for-obama-i-dont-think-hillary-clinton-has-prayer-of-being-the-next-potus/681404.md?page=3)