# I Want to be the First on Record to Call the 2012 Presidential Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 2, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995 "2010-05-02T01:41:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/1 "2010-05-02T01:41:30Z")
Let’s face it, Obama is floundering miserably an it is only going get worse. He won’t make reelection. My home state of Louisiana has an Indian/American Republican governor in Bobby Jindal (he won 88% of the popular vote there) that can match the minority card and he just caught a break with the massive oil spill off the coast of Louisiana that will give him free press for months and show what he can do in times of crisis. I’m calling it: Jindal 52% Obama 47%. This isn’t a campaign post. I just want to test my psychic ability. What are your early predictions? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/2 "2010-05-02T01:46:28Z")
Obama re-elected, 75% probability. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/3 "2010-05-02T01:54:01Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > Let’s face it, Obama is floundering miserably an it is only going get worse. He won’t make reelection. My home state of Louisiana has an Indian/American Republican governor in Bobby Jindal (he won 88% of the popular vote there) that can match the minority card and he just caught a break with the massive oil spill off the coast of Louisiana that will give him free press for months and show what he can do in times of crisis. I’m calling it: Jindal 52% Obama 47%. This isn’t a campaign post. I just want to test my psychic ability. > > What are your early predictions? 100% probability the nomination of Jindal elicits more laughs than votes. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/4 "2010-05-02T01:54:53Z")
Obama will be reelected. I cannot even see the GOP gain many seats in the House. ---
**Author:** ![stpauler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@stpauler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stpauler)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/5 "2010-05-02T01:57:13Z")
Obama. 52% win. Jindal has to deal with Lake Palin. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/6 "2010-05-02T02:00:47Z")
> [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](#): > > 100% probability the nomination of Jindal elicits more laughs than votes. If you want a real life Chuck Norris of the intellectual, business and political world, check him out. I am not sure why you are prejudiced against someone from Louisiana. He could be hiding under your bed tonight and you would never know. “Jindal was named a member of 1992 USA Today All-USA Academic Team. He was accepted by both Harvard Medical School and Yale Law School, but studied at New College, Oxford, as a Rhodes Scholar. He received an M.Litt. degree in political science with an emphasis in health policy from the University of Oxford in 1994 for his thesis “A needs-based approach to health care”.[7] He could have studied for a D.Phil. in politics,[9][10] but instead joined the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, where he advised Fortune 500 companies.” > **[Bobby Jindal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Jindal)** > > Piyush "Bobby" Jindal (born June 10, 1971) is an American politician who served as the 55th governor of Louisiana from 2008 to 2016. A member of the Republican Party, Jindal previously served as a U.S. representative from Louisiana from 2005 to 2008, and served as chair of the Republican Governors Association from 2012 to 2013. > In 1995, Jindal was appointed secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals. In 1999, he was appointed president of the University of Louisiana System.... ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/7 "2010-05-02T02:03:23Z")
I don’t think Jindal fronts the ticket. He might get the VP slot. Not sure who gets the nod at the top, but Obama is in trouble. If he doesn’t pick up his game, he’s one and done. I call Generic GOP Nominee 49%, Obama 47%, Other 4%. Dems keep the Senate, but lose the House and POTUS. ---
**Author:** ![Susanann](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ab992/32.png) [@Susanann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Susanann)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/8 "2010-05-02T02:24:52Z")
I predict that Hillary will win in 2012 with over 300 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/9 "2010-05-02T02:27:47Z")
This is the same Jindal who looked so lost with the GOP “rebuttal” to the State of the Union, right? The creationist in spite of his education? The anti-choicer? Him? You may think he neutralizes what you call “the minority card”, but are you so sure it wouldn’t be dismissed as pandering? You think he’ll look good on the basis of the oil spill, but how will that play out? What’s he done so far that has made anybody notice, and what can he do that will? You call it a crisis, an opportunity to shine, but isn’t it already a bit too late? The moment to shine doesn’t last long. And won’t his strong “Drill, baby, drill” background make it look like he contributed to the situation in the first place? You list all those pre-governorship accomplishments, but none as Governor. Don’t you think that sort of stands out? Obama re-elected, min 350-400 EV’s, doesn’t matter what talking-point panderer Fox has the GOP nominate. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/10 "2010-05-02T02:29:36Z")
Obama is vulnerable and beatable. But not by Jindal. I don’t have any good feel for who the GOP nominee will be, but Obama beats Jindal and Palin, just to dispose of some famous names. ---
**Author:** ![ToeJam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dfb087/32.png) [@ToeJam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ToeJam)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/11 "2010-05-02T02:34:02Z")
I sadly believe Obama will lose in 2012. But not to Jindal. I hope not to Palin, but at this point, I have no idea. I just have a sinking feeling that it’s not gonna be 8 years of Obama though. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/12 "2010-05-02T02:34:12Z")
In a surprise twist, a constitutionally ineligible, foreigner who goes by the name **orcenio** wins by a landslide due to a brilliantly run campaign, which included the promise of [40,000 new government run (blow)jobs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEE#Election_campaign) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/13 "2010-05-02T02:35:53Z")
Obama. And if Jindal is what they’ve got it will be a landslide. We laugh at Jindal because we’ve seen him speak. He’s an idiot. Not because he’s from Louisiana. But because he makes Chuck Norris sound like an Einstein. As to your premise about “floundering” - actually I think Obama’s done quite well under some very difficult times. But I presume that you do not mean to debate the merits of what he has accomplished and is setting up to accomplish but plain old polling, that shows him [currently at 49%](http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx), and having been down as low as 45% in recent months. After all G W Bush was at 76% at this point! Heck even his Daddy was polling at 68%! Well, if polling at this point, or even at the end of the second year, was predictive then one would have though Reagan would have been a one-termer and we’d have had a President Mondale, or did you forget [how](http://www.gallup.com/poll/11887/ronald-reagan-from-peoples-perspective-gallup-poll-review.aspx) Reagan polled his second and even his third years? His > [@](#): > > ratings during 1982 stayed concomitantly low, in the 40% range, ending the year at 41%. … 1983 began for Reagan with a 35% job approval rating – the worst of his administration … And oh yes, we know how those early strong polls turned out for Bush the elder. Presidential job approval at this point in the term has NO predictive value. Of recent one termers one, Carter, polled 43%, the other was Bush the elder, referenced above. Johnson was above 60% this many months after assuming office and then dropped like a rock while Ford was in the 40’s climbing up from the 30’s and ended in the mid 50’s. OTOH, in addition to Reagan’s low numbers, Clinton was running only 50%. Never forget that Obama is a poker player. You can bet that by the time he’s up for re-election he’ll have slowly collected the chips. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/14 "2010-05-02T02:36:45Z")
Jindal was being groomed for the 2012 or 2016 nomination, and blew it. He looked ridiculous and made the Republican party look ridiculous in front of the country. If the fact that he embarrassed the party doesn’t scuttle any campaign he tries to mount, the fact that he’s only going to be 41 on election day 2012 will lose him the party’s blessing. He doesn’t have enough charisma to draw in the votes a young candidate needs. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/15 "2010-05-02T02:45:36Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > I call Generic GOP Nominee 49%, Obama 47%, Other 4%. … As [Fivethirtyeight](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/how-weak-is-gops-2012-field.html) noted a while back, yeah, the “generic GOP nominee” does well, but the generic nominee aint gonna be running. > [@](#): > > … At this point four years ago, it ought to have been clear that Democrats had some fairly promising options. Although only about half the country knew who Barack Obama was, those who did had a favorable impression of him by a 3:1 margin. None of the plausible Republican candidates – with one arguable exception that I’ll discuss below – is anywhere in that ballpark. Democrats are obviously glad that they didn’t nominate John Edwards, but he too had a very good net favorability rating (+21, the same as Obama’s), substantially better than that of the most favorably regarded Republican candidate, Mike Huckabee, who is at a +9. … > > … in general, the numbers for the Republican candidates don’t match up well with those for the Democrats. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are now regarded as more favorable than not by the public, but did not have the lopsided numbers that Obama or Edwards did. Meanwhile, one of the more likely Republican nominees, Sarah Palin, has famously poor numbers. And the closest thing to a dark-horse that met our standard of having been polled by at least two different groups – Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty – is at least as likely to elicit negative reactions than positive ones from those who have gotten to know him. … > > … an unnamed, “generic” Republican candidate fares a lot better against Obama than any actual Republican does. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/16 "2010-05-02T02:49:24Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > Let’s face it, Obama is floundering miserably an it is only going get worse. Well, if you set yourself up with that statement, I got 5 to your 10. The Obama will be reelected. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/17 "2010-05-02T02:50:00Z")
The election is two and a half years away. It’s probably a little soon to be speculating on how poor Obama’s shot at re-election is, considering presidents have seen 60 point swings in approval ratings in shorter spans of time. FWIW, [Reagan’s approval](http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Reagan) in May of '82 was in the mid 40’s. By November 1984 it was near 60, and I recall he did pretty well in that election. ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/18 "2010-05-02T02:52:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Never forget that Obama is a poker player. You can bet that by the time he’s up for re-election he’ll have slowly collected the chips. Is he really? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/19 "2010-05-02T02:53:05Z")
Oh and for kicks regarding Jindal … Fox has actually [run a recent poll on possible contenders for the nomination](http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/articles/bobby-jindal-polls-worst-in-possible-2012-republican-primary-election-051609002.html) and “Bobby Jindal comes in dead last.” 3%. Even Mark Sanford beat him. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/20 "2010-05-02T02:56:49Z")
Personally I don’t believe the polls. And Jindal is intelligent and articulate and could wrestle a giant alligator in his sleep. The only reason I won’t vote for him is that I’m prejudiced against someone from Louisiana. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995.md?page=2)