# I Want to be the First on Record to Call the 2012 Presidential Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 2, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995 "2010-05-02T01:41:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/41 "2010-05-02T05:06:40Z")
The only way the Pubbies would even have a chance is with a nominee that comes out of nowhere who also isn’t a crazy person. All of the names currently being tossed around would have no hope. Obama wins in a landslide vs… - Palin, she’s too stupid even for the Republican base to vote for her - Jindel, looks like a little kid and is probably too “ethnic” for the “real Americans” the GOP counts on\* - Romney, not Republican enough for the Tea Partiers and most probably just stay home rather than vote for him - Yes, I called some Republicans racist. You’re offended, tough titties. ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/42 "2010-05-02T05:07:51Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > Let’s face it, Obama is floundering miserably an it is only going get worse. He won’t make reelection. My home state of Louisiana has an Indian/American Republican governor in Bobby Jindal (he won 88% of the popular vote there) that can match the minority card and he just caught a break with the massive oil spill off the coast of Louisiana that will give him free press for months and show what he can do in times of crisis. I’m calling it: Jindal 52% Obama 47%. This isn’t a campaign post. I just want to test my psychic ability. > > What are your early predictions? [This guy?](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huXANQi-8TM) Seriously? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/43 "2010-05-02T05:16:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Clinton was not considered a frontrunner prior to 1992, by the way. Cuomo was the one everyone was presuming would challenge GHWB, and few outside of Arkansas had even heard of Bill Clinton. Even after Cuomo decided not to run, Clinton was low in the radr. Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown were considered more likely. Even Al Gore would have been given better odds to get the nomination in '91. And he gave a bad speech at 1988 convention which led a lot of people to write him off for the 1992 election. So Jindal can recover if he works at it. But I don’t think 2012 will be his year. He’s still young so the party leaders will figure it’s not his turn yet. And two of his biggest assets are his youth and his appeal to minority voters - both of which will be useless in a campaign against Obama. I also discount Palin. She wants the nomination but I don’t think she’s got the stomach for the fight - an image she’s created by quitting the governor’s office and complaining about how liberals pick on her. Female candidates have to be seen as being tougher than men to appear credible - somebody like Hillary Clinton or Margaret Thatcher. Palin’ll be courted by other candidates for her supporters but she won’t get the prize herself. My guess is it’ll be Huckabee or Romney. Huckabee if Obama is looking weak and the Republicans think they can fight him from the right. Romney if Obama is looking strong and the Republicans figure they need somebody who can attract the middle. My prediction is that Obama will stay strong enough. He hasn’t made any huge mistakes or had any major scandals. The economy and national security are looking better now than they were two years ago. So his incumbency should be enough to get him a second term - beating Romney who’ll be the Republican nominee based on what I said above. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/44 "2010-05-02T05:18:18Z")
Jindal’s real first name is Piyush, by the way. And he thinks he’s fought with demons. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/45 "2010-05-02T05:19:08Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > As [Fivethirtyeight](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/how-weak-is-gops-2012-field.html) noted a while back, yeah, the “generic GOP nominee” does well, but the generic nominee aint gonna be running. What? I thought Mitt Romney was the generic Republican for 2012. I give Mitt a fighting chance to be the next Ed Muskie. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/46 "2010-05-02T05:30:54Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > What? I thought Mitt Romney was the generic Republican for 2012. Well, Romney is, by definition, the generic Republican, in the sense that whatever values poll well with Republican voters by late 2011 will be his personal, “long-held” values, even if they’re different from the ones he holds now. Not to mention that the wingnut base that will come out for Republican primaries isn’t going to vote for a Mormon, still. Four years will not lessen that problem. Hell, the two years since the 2008 primaries have only concentrated and distilled the wingnuttery. If I were a sane Republican, I’d hope like Hell that the teapartiers have peaked. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/47 "2010-05-02T05:52:11Z")
Jindal’s already said he doesn’t want the nomination, at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. That doesn’t mean he can’t change his mind, but usually when politicians do want to run they say something like, “Oh, it’s too early to talk about that now. Why don’t we talk about my great plans for the state of Louisiana” or some other non answer answer. Even though anything can happen at this point, I think the nominee is going to be either Romney or Pawlenty. If you look at the straw poll results at CPAC and the SRLC, at CPAC, the top four were Paul with 31%, Romney with 22%, Palin with 7%, and Pawlenty with 6%. SRLC, Romney had 24%, Paul, 24%, Palin and Gingrich 18%, Huckabee 4%, and Pawlenty and Pence at 3%. Paul is a non starter, Palin energizes the base and there are people who love her, but she’s not really electable, and the Republicans know that. Gingrich is too cerebral and also too 1990s, and I don’t think Huckabee can get the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/48 "2010-05-02T06:22:09Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But I don’t think 2012 will be his year. He’s still young so the party leaders will figure it’s not his turn yet. He’s not just young - he’d be the youngest major party candidate in over 100 years, and the youngest Republican nominee ever. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/49 "2010-05-02T06:27:22Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > If you want a real life Chuck Norris of the intellectual, business and political world, check him out. I am not sure why you are prejudiced against someone from Louisiana. He could be hiding under your bed tonight and you would never know. > > “Jindal was named a member of 1992 USA Today All-USA Academic Team. He was accepted by both Harvard Medical School and Yale Law School, but studied at New College, Oxford, as a Rhodes Scholar. He received an M.Litt. degree in political science with an emphasis in health policy from the University of Oxford in 1994 for his thesis “A needs-based approach to health care”.[7] He could have studied for a D.Phil. in politics,[9][10] but instead joined the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, where he advised Fortune 500 companies.” > > [Bobby Jindal - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Jindal) I don’t want a Chuck Norris of anything. He’s an idiot. The reason why Jindal is a joke of a presidential candidate was apparent in his response to the State of the Union address. He’s more wooden than Pinocchio. He may be a capable man, but if he couldn’t handle the State of the Union rebuttal, he’ll never weather a presidential campaign. > [@](#): > > I am not sure why you are prejudiced against someone from Louisiana. That’s just how I roll. I hates me some Louisianans :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/50 "2010-05-02T06:34:55Z")
If the economy continues the pace of its recovery, Obama wins against Jesus himself. If not, Obama loses against Hitler. It’s that simple. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/51 "2010-05-02T06:42:35Z")
> [@astro](#): > > [This guy?](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huXANQi-8TM) Seriously? He was a biology major. :smack: It burns. ---
**Author:** ![hansel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6bbea6/32.png) [@hansel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hansel)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/52 "2010-05-02T07:00:01Z")
> [@boytyperanma](#): > > The Republicans are still busy tearing themselves up. I question their ability to get a moderate unscathed through their primary. This. It doesn’t matter who the Republican nominee is if the party isn’t unified in 2012. A big part of Obama’s victory in 2008 was that the left and the centre both liked him, and didn’t see themselves as opposing each other. The tea party base and the moderate Republicans are still at each other’s throats after big losses in two elections. If they’re still a rump party in 2012 (and 2010 is looking like a “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” cycle for them), it’ll be a repeat of 2008 where a moderate has to radicalize himself to capture the base, and will lose the moderates in the process. There might be a dark horse who appears and unifies the Republicans because neither base nor moderates have latched onto him/her as one of theirs, alienating the other side. > [@boytyperanma](#): > > Obama has his own challenges. While he has been appealing to his more mainstream base he has been heavy on the ‘punch the hippy’ strategy and has alienated the most liberal supporters. Many people are disenfranchised. They think he did not deliver the change he promised(correct or not), those people will vote green or just stay home unless the Republicans put up a polarizing challenger. I disagree with this. Now is the time for the left to feel all pissed off and disenchanted with apparently broken promises and fresh memories of riding the Magical Unity Pony; in two years they’ll have resigned themselves to having a reasonably centrist Democrat in power who throws them a bone now and then. I think the left is now where the evangelical right was in the 80s: content with the alliance that puts them in power. And in 2012, Obama will likely have a hell of a record to run on. He got HCR, and he’s going to get Wall Street Reform. An immigration package is plausible if not likely. DADT will be dead by 2012–all the military testimony that it’s time has passed is laying the groundwork for a post-2010 election repeal that Republicans can’t argue against. And appearances to the contrary, the 2009/2010 Congresses have been remarkably productive, apparently. By 2012, Obama will have a laundry list of accomplishments to describe. If the economy isn’t freshly in the shitter, he’ll be comfortably re-elected. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/53 "2010-05-02T07:01:08Z")
Jindal? can you say “President Token”? ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/54 "2010-05-02T07:53:59Z")
> [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](#): > > 100% probability the nomination of Jindal elicits more laughs than votes. And more death threats, most likely. With all the “I KNOW Obama is really a Muslim!” and “He’s not even American!”, do you really think the name Jindal could usurp the election? If Obama actually does not win again, the only person to beat him will be any man with a name that rhymes with John Wayne. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/55 "2010-05-02T08:24:41Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > I disagree. Obama was talked about as a possible nominee almost as soon as he made his speech during the '04 Dem Convention. Dio’s referring to Palin, not Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/56 "2010-05-02T09:41:26Z")
How is Bobby Jindal going to win the primary in 2012? The GOP is becoming more and more radical. I don’t know ‘tons’ about Jindal, but as someone else posted earlier in polls he doesn’t do too well with the GOP base. So he’d never even win the primary. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/57 "2010-05-02T12:01:09Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Dio’s referring to Palin, not Obama. Which is irrelevant then as we’re talking about Presidential nominees. Not the Vice Presidential apointee. Palin became a name in 2008 and if she gets the nomination (:p), she’ll have been known for the last four years. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/58 "2010-05-02T12:08:09Z")
Electoral [vote.com](http://vote.com) will accurately predict the result, as it has recently. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/59 "2010-05-02T12:17:59Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > If Obama actually does not win again, the only person to beat him will be any man with a name that rhymes with John Wayne. 😃 T-Pain? That seems unlikely. I agree with the consensus that the smart money, by a small margin, is on an Obama re-election at this point. But 90% of the outcome here will be factored on the economy and whomever the Republican Party nominates. And that’s completely up in the air at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2010, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/60 "2010-05-02T13:20:27Z")
> [@Sevastopol](#): > > Electoral [vote.com](http://vote.com) will accurately predict the result, as it has recently. I seem to recall they predicted a Kerry victory during the '04 election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995.md?page=4)