# I Want to be the First on Record to Call the 2012 Presidential Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 2, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995 "2010-05-02T01:41:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2010, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/101 "2010-05-03T20:35:11Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The more interesting question, as this thread evidences, is who the GOP will nominate. A lot of conservatives I know seem to think they have found their very own Obama in Marco Rubio. Assuming he makes it to the Senate, it’s hard to imagine him running for president after only two years in Washington, but who knows? Obama ran after only 4 years. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him as a contender in 2016, though. (Again, _if_ he manages to win a Senate seat.) ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2010, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/102 "2010-05-03T20:52:40Z")
You know what? I realize it’s impossible, but I’d like to see McCain take another go at it. For all the lackluster moves he made in the last campaign - not least of which was propelling Palin to prominence - the man is still capable of real, fundamental decency and integrity. (His concession speech, for example, was as statesmanlike as anyone could wish.) Odds are that anyone who goes up in 2012 is going to get trounced anyway - McCain has nothing to lose, and might have finally learned to run the campaign with style. ---
**Author:** ![boytyperanma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4491bb/32.png) [@boytyperanma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boytyperanma)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2010, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/103 "2010-05-03T21:15:13Z")
> [@Mr.Excellent](#): > > You know what? I realize it’s impossible, but I’d like to see McCain take another go at it. For all the lackluster moves he made in the last campaign - not least of which was propelling Palin to prominence - the man is still capable of real, fundamental decency and integrity. (His concession speech, for example, was as statesmanlike as anyone could wish.) Odds are that anyone who goes up in 2012 is going to get trounced anyway - McCain has nothing to lose, and might have finally learned to run the campaign with style. I guess you are right on one point ‘McCain has nothing to lose’ He has already sacrificed every bit of his integrity trying to remain viable in the Republican party. I doubt well be seeing Mr. ‘I’m not a maverick’ even trying for another presidential run. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2010, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/104 "2010-05-03T21:20:17Z")
I’m still skeptical about the VP-swap idea. There was a lot of talk bandied about of W doing something similar, and it made a lot more sense in his case, but nothing ever came of that, either. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/105 "2010-05-04T01:15:06Z")
That’s true up to a point. The difference, I think, is that Cheney was beloved by the party base and considered integral - even vital - to the actual process of governance by the incumbent President. I don’t think either can be said of Biden, and the White House has had to spend too much time, IMHO, explaining away his various gaffes. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/106 "2010-05-04T02:19:41Z")
Anyone who thinks they can call a presidential election this far out is out of their mind. If nothing unforseeable happens, it’ll all come down to the economy (which, just given its cyclical nature, looks very good for President Obama right now), but that “if” is the rub. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/107 "2010-05-04T03:28:56Z")
> [@](#): > > Won’t happen. It’d look like a desperation move, and even if it is actually a desperation move, the absolute last thing any politician wants is to look desperate. I agree. Barring some genuinely unforeseen health problem, a president switching vice presidents is basically an admission he made a big mistake the last time around. It’s justifiably going to be seen as a negative against the president. The best a president can hope for is that dumping his VP doesn’t hurt him as much as keeping him would have. And no way is Biden that kind of negative. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/108 "2010-05-04T04:13:56Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > That’s true up to a point. The difference, I think, is that Cheney was beloved by the party base and considered integral - even vital - to the actual process of governance by the incumbent President. I don’t think either can be said of Biden, and the White House has had to spend too much time, IMHO, explaining away his various gaffes. [Cheney Makes Incest Joke About West Virginians | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/02/cheney-makes-incest-joke_n_104761.html) What? You think Cheney didn’t gaffe. (other than shooting a guy in the face0 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/109 "2010-05-04T04:16:15Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > [Cheney Makes Incest Joke About West Virginians | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/02/cheney-makes-incest-joke_n_104761.html) What? You think Cheney didn’t gaffe. (other than shooting a guy in the face0 Oh, and there was the whole “Go fuck yourself” to Senator Leahy, too. ---
**Author:** ![Rhodes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rhodes/32/273_2.png) [@Rhodes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhodes)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/110 "2010-05-04T05:45:21Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > I don’t know that Beck’s Mormonism is any kind of common knowledge. The only people I’ve ever read or heard even mentioning it are left-wing bloggers. Combine with that the fact that Beck isn’t running for any elective office and has no actual government power. It was mentioned several times in the cover story of TIME a couple of months ago. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/111 "2010-05-04T07:24:23Z")
> [@](#): > > Oh, and there was the whole “Go fuck yourself” to Senator Leahy, too. That was probably a clever diversion. Leahy was questioning Cheney about whether he was illegally steering government contracts to Halliburton. Then Cheney told Leahy to “go fuck yourself”. And after that, nobody was talking about Cheney’s contacts with Halliburton anymore because all the talk was about him saying fuck. In an interview just last month, Cheney said that swearing at Leahy was “sort of the best thing I ever did.” ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/112 "2010-05-04T15:01:26Z")
> [@Mr.Excellent](#): > > You know what? I realize it’s impossible, but I’d like to see McCain take another go at it. For all the lackluster moves he made in the last campaign - not least of which was propelling Palin to prominence - the man is still capable of real, fundamental decency and integrity. (His concession speech, for example, was as statesmanlike as anyone could wish.) Odds are that anyone who goes up in 2012 is going to get trounced anyway - McCain has nothing to lose, and might have finally learned to run the campaign with style. McCain was too old last time. he hasn’t gotten any younger. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/113 "2010-05-04T15:03:43Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > McCain was too old last time. he hasn’t gotten any younger. He might before the next election, though. That’s what I keep trying to tell you guys: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND 2012! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/114 "2010-05-04T15:12:16Z")
Why don’t the Repubs nominate Limbaugh and get it over with? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/115 "2010-05-04T15:39:25Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Why don’t the Repubs nominate Limbaugh and get it over with? You act like Rush would even want the job. Not only would it require him to actually get off his ass and campaign, it would require him to submit to transparency protocols and disclosure on his income/finances/quid pro quos, give him around 300 rivals (Democratic congresspersons), and require him to take a pay cut. Not gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/116 "2010-05-04T15:42:45Z")
I understand what you’re saying re: Cheney, but still believe that, for all his faults, he wasn’t the distraction and the loose cannon for the previous Administration that Biden has been for this one. With the exception of the shooting incident, most Republicans _liked_ what Dems and independents would consider to be Cheney’s gaffes. I don’t think dumping, er, tactfully replacing Biden on the ticket in two years will necessarily be seen as a desperation move - “He’s had a long and distinguished career already, wishes to resume his teaching career, spend more time with his family,” etc. There are several other folks who would be (a) more politically helpful in the Electoral College math, and (b) more useful and less gaffe-prone once in the West Wing. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/117 "2010-05-04T15:52:03Z")
I disagree that Biden has been any particular distraction or loose cannon. He’s had a couple of minor verbal gaffes that were worth a second or two of amusement, but I would disagree strongly that he’s done anything that actually diverted national media attention or embarrassed Obama. He gets little sidebar mentions at the end of newscasts. He doesn’t draw front page attention. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/118 "2010-05-04T15:56:55Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > In an interview just last month, Cheney said that swearing at Leahy was “sort of the best thing I ever did.” In that its one of the few incidents in his life that didn’t involve anyone getting bombed, waterboarded or shot in the face, I guess he’s right. > [@spoke](#): > > A lot of conservatives I know seem to think they have found their very own Obama in Marco Rubio. Assuming he makes it to the Senate, it’s hard to imagine him running for president after only two years in Washington, but who knows? Obama ran after only 4 years. Thought he was too young, but looking it up, he’d just barely squeak over the age requirement in 2012. Still, even in light of Obama’s short Senate career, I think leaving after two years in the Senate would be pushing it. And I agree with **DtC** , Biden’s gaffes tend to get a few minutes of attention on the Late Night shows and then fade pretty quickly. Plus, in a way, he’s sort of insulated himself from the blowback, in that everyone sort of expects him to say something off-the-cuff, and so his occasional dumb remark doesn’t end up getting over-analyzed the way another politicians might. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/119 "2010-05-04T19:38:31Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > And I agree with **DtC** , Biden’s gaffes tend to get a few minutes of attention on the Late Night shows and then fade pretty quickly. Plus, in a way, he’s sort of insulated himself from the blowback, in that everyone sort of expects him to say something off-the-cuff, and so his occasional dumb remark doesn’t end up getting over-analyzed the way another politicians might. Besides which - though we aren’t privy to the conversations between Obama and Biden, it’s worth remembering that Biden actually is a very, very smart guy. It’s entirely possible that his counsel is valuable. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2010, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995/120 "2010-05-04T21:50:06Z")
Yeah, I haven’t actually heard much of anything about Biden since the inauguration. OK, he’s not bringing much good press, either, but then, he’s not really bringing much of any press at all. There are worse things a VP can do than to just stay out of the way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-be-the-first-on-record-to-call-the-2012-presidential-race/537995.md?page=7)