# I want to pit weather.com **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [July 24, 2012, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223 "2012-07-24T11:31:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/1 "2012-07-24T11:31:32Z")
These guys must be officially using darts or something. I check today’s hourly weather 30 minutes ago. At that time, there was 30% chance of rain about 11:30am. It is now 7:30am and pouring so hard that the visibility is reduced to less than 1/4 mile. WTHey? Is Microsoft maintaining their prediction algorithms or what? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/2 "2012-07-24T11:53:08Z")
How is pouring rain inconsistent with a prediction for a 30% chance of rain? ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/3 "2012-07-24T11:59:01Z")
I pit the teachers and parents who evidently failed to teach the OP the difference between “thirty” and “null” :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/4 "2012-07-24T12:21:42Z")
To clarify, there was no predicted chance of rain UNTIL 11:30am. The hourly forecast gives pridictions for the weather through out the day on an hourly basis. Hence, the 7:30 down pour (less than 30 minutes after checking) seemed like a serious prediction fail. [Weather.com](http://Weather.com) has also become significantly in-accurate for my area on the daily and weekly basis as well. But, they should be able to at least identify a storm cell that was probably forming/formed at the time I checked. ETA: here is the hourly forecast for Chicago as an example of what I was looking at: [http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Chicago+IL+USIL0225:1:US](http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Chicago+IL+USIL0225:1:US) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/5 "2012-07-24T12:53:56Z")
> [@Enkel](#): > > To clarify, there was no predicted chance of rain UNTIL 11:30am. So their prediction for that period was 0% chance of precipitation? I have never seen that before, especially during the summer. > [@](#): > > [Weather.com](http://Weather.com) has also become significantly in-accurate for my area on the daily and weekly basis as well. This is where you lose me. If they predict 30% chance of rain, and it rains, is that inaccurate? ---
**Author:** ![Mithras](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f04885/32.png) [@Mithras](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mithras)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/6 "2012-07-24T13:06:54Z")
This is relevant: > **[What does it mean when “X percent chance of rain” is predicted?](https://www.straightdope.com/21342030/what-does-it-mean-when-x-percent-chance-of-rain-is-predicted)** In particular: > [@](#): > > When you hear there’s a 10 percent chance of rain, that means that out of the last 100 times the weather conditions were just like they are now, it rained 10 times. For all we know, the conditions they were looking at had only happened three times before and none of those led to a sudden downpour. I was actually joking yesterday about the [weather.com](http://weather.com) forecast initially showing a 100% chance of a thunderstorm in my area around 6pm. Throughout the day that slowly dropped to 0%. But it’s only mildly amusing because people generally don’t know what those percents mean. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/7 "2012-07-24T13:26:45Z")
> [@Enkel](#): > > [Weather.com](http://Weather.com) has also become significantly in-accurate for my area on the daily and weekly basis as well. But, they should be able to at least identify a storm cell that was probably forming/formed at the time I checked. I don’t expect a weather website to have continuously updating hourly weather reports for every individual town in the nation. I especially don’t expect that sort of detail during thunderstorm season, when storms appear and disappear in a short time, popping up almost randomly throughout the region. They should be dinged if they showed 0% chance of rain during a time when storms are forming. If I really really need to know exactly when it’s going to rain, you can’t beat Weather in Motion. I can watch a storm cell bearing down on my town, and predict within just a few minutes when I need to shut all my windows. Brings me back to my nerdy high school days of being in the weather club. Back then, of course, it took probably 15 minutes to get a single map through the thermal printer. ---
**Author:** ![Filbert](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/filbert/32/3433_2.png) [@Filbert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Filbert)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/8 "2012-07-24T13:33:55Z")
A few years back I was at work, listening to the local radio station which was based less than a mile away. The weather forecast came on, and apparently we were going to have a lovely warm, dry evening, with a small chance of rain overnight. Except it was already pissing it down. If they’d just stuck their heads out the the building the radio station was broadcast from, they would have been able to see the sodding rainclouds, but noo_oooo…_ That’s a shitty forecast; 30% chance of rain means… well, 30% chance of rain. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/9 "2012-07-24T13:48:35Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > If I really really need to know exactly when it’s going to rain, you can’t beat Weather in Motion. I can watch a storm cell bearing down on my town, and predict within just a few minutes when I need to shut all my windows. Brings me back to my nerdy high school days of being in the weather club. Back then, of course, it took probably 15 minutes to get a single map through the thermal printer. Wish it worked for my neighborhood. During the recent drought we would watch storms coming our way on radar, only to see them juke north or south at the last minute, or even break into two storms, one passing north and one south. My gf has lived here for 30 years and she claims it has always been that way. I assumed some sorta confirmation bias, but our neighbors all have supporting data. One neighbor set up a rain gauge. She bought two and gave one to a friend who live 2 miles west. They measure significant differences in rainfall. ---
**Author:** ![Mister\_Owl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@Mister\_Owl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mister_Owl)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/10 "2012-07-24T13:56:42Z")
Everyone complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/11 "2012-07-24T13:58:26Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > Wish it worked for my neighborhood. During the recent drought we would watch storms coming our way on radar, only to see them juke north or south at the last minute, or even break into two storms, one passing north and one south. > **[Weather Radar](https://www.xkcd.com/831/)** There’s an XKCD for everything. ---
**Author:** ![johnpost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@johnpost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/johnpost)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/12 "2012-07-24T14:02:07Z")
in summer you can get sudden rain and thunderstorms due to instability caused by temperature. you can go from clear to rain in 15 minutes. it can rain on one side of the street and not the other. reporting locations that are 10 miles apart can have 3 inches of rain at one and zero at the other. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Surb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ce73a5/32.png) [@The\_Surb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Surb)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/13 "2012-07-24T14:23:03Z")
Weather systems are chaotic. There is a very good chance that a butterfly flapped its wings and as a result the weather pattern changed. My recommendation is to kill butterflies not Microsoft (well go ahead and kill Microsoft, but not for this reason). ---
**Author:** ![tim-n-va](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim-n-va/32/3001_2.png) [@tim-n-va](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim-n-va)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/14 "2012-07-24T14:45:02Z")
> [@Mister\_Owl](#): > > Everyone complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. That’s what Calvin Coolidge said. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/15 "2012-07-24T14:52:15Z")
> [@Telemark](#): > > [xkcd: Weather Radar](http://www.xkcd.com/831/) > > There’s an XKCD for everything. 😃 Thanks! Indeed! ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/16 "2012-07-24T14:59:45Z")
I thought you were going to pit their ugly website redesign (lately, is there any other kind?) with which I’d definitely be on board. Sure it’s obnoxious, clunky, overcrowded, and generally another good example of unbroke fixery— but hey, at least they added “Love!” and “Ugh!” buttons so we can finally get a majority opinion on the current temperature. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/17 "2012-07-24T16:45:30Z")
> [@Filbert](#): > > A few years back I was at work, listening to the local radio station which was based less than a mile away. The weather forecast came on, and apparently we were going to have a lovely warm, dry evening, with a small chance of rain overnight. > > Except it was already pissing it down. If they’d just stuck their heads out the the building the radio station was broadcast from, they would have been able to see the sodding rainclouds, but noo_oooo…_ > That’s a shitty forecast; 30% chance of rain means… well, 30% chance of rain. Local radio is not what it used to be. Most stations around here have recorded weather forecasts, often from a local TV station meteorologist, or perhaps an AccuWeather guy who is phoning in his forecast from halfway across the country. Recorded forecasts don’t do well keeping up with changing conditions … ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-want-to-pit-weather-com/629223/18 "2012-07-24T18:24:21Z")
> [@johnpost](#): > > in summer you can get sudden rain and thunderstorms due to instability caused by temperature. you can go from clear to rain in 15 minutes. it can rain on one side of the street and not the other. It always bothered me when I would tell people about the few times that it was raining in my front yard but not in my backyard and they wouldn’t believe me. Even as a little kid I was smart enough to say “Well, if it’s raining in one place and not raining in another place the border has to be _somewhere_ right?”. Once I got to high school/college I learned about the intermediate value theorem which basically said the same thing but in math terms. This also covers the “Why didn’t you go before we left the house”/“I didn’t have to go then” scenario.