# I Was Wrong- There's a BIG Downside to Letting Tim Tebow start **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 13, 2011, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840 "2011-11-13T22:35:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/81 "2011-11-18T14:54:59Z")
That’s fair, the defense does deserve credit for improving their play. One other thing I took a look at, Tebow sucked for 3+qtrs last night. Then, middle of the 4th he takes them on a 95 yard scoring drive. Prior to the scoring drive, 3+ quarters of suckage, he has 2 runs for 11 yards 95 yard 4th quarter scoring drive - 6 runs for 57 yards and a TD. I notice that something is different… hard to put my finger on it. 😉 I don’t know if it’s a coaching choice, or just that the defense didn’t let him take the option for himself, but damn I think he needs to run more. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/82 "2011-11-18T15:04:02Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > That’s fair, the defense does deserve credit for improving their play. > > One other thing I took a look at, Tebow sucked for 3+qtrs last night. Then, middle of the 4th he takes them on a 95 yard scoring drive. > > Prior to the scoring drive, 3+ quarters of suckage, he has 2 runs for 11 yards > > 95 yard 4th quarter scoring drive - 6 runs for 57 yards and a TD. > > I notice that something is different… hard to put my finger on it. 😉 I generally dislike concepts like “football magic” or “clutch time”, but whatever “it” is, Tebow has it. I never thought he had a chance starting at his own 5, but he did it, and it was fun to watch. But without Denver’s defensive showing in that game, it never would have been close enough for him to do that. As you said, he sucked for 3+ quarters, but could get away with sucking because of the Broncos’ defense. Still, he’s exciting, a likeable kid, and is bringing a ton of publicity to the NFL. I’m frustrated with the amount of press and pub he gets and the lack of mention that the Bronco’s defense gets, but such is the life of an NFL quarterback. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/83 "2011-11-18T15:13:13Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Sure it does. I never said any different. I agree. I’m not one of those guys. I like Tebow, I’m happy he’s winning, he’s fun to watch run the ball, I’m thrilled he stuffed it in Rex Ryan and the Jets’ piehole, and I hope he has much success in his life. > > But he’s not the only reason the Broncos are winning. The largest single reason the Broncos are winning is that their defense is playing very well by getting turnovers, big stops, sacks, and limiting time of possession. Tebow certainly gets credit for not turning the ball over and being able to run, but unless that defense plays well, the Broncos aren’t winning those games. That’s true for most teams in the league. You can talk about Tebow’s lack of production, but the reality is that the Broncos’ skill positions are absolutely terrible. They have no one good, anywhere. If you put a Matt Ryan back there, they would be worse off because he has no weapons. You also don’t give him enough credit for not turning the ball over. Sanchez’s pick 6 is the difference in the game. Tebow has one interception in 5 games now. That’s great, and a pretty huge reason for the improvement in defense. ---
**Author:** ![Erdosain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/erdosain/32/7284_2.png) [@Erdosain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Erdosain)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/84 "2011-11-18T15:34:01Z")
It’s pretty easy to avoid interceptions when you have 8 pass attempts in a game. Plus, you have to throw the ball near a receiver for a defender to have a shot at it. I think it’s pretty clear that Tebow has helped his team with a handful of clutch drives but not much else. Time will tell if this success is a fluke. I’d bet heavily on fluke. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/85 "2011-11-18T15:36:24Z")
> [@treis](#): > > That’s true for most teams in the league. > > You can talk about Tebow’s lack of production, but the reality is that the Broncos’ skill positions are absolutely terrible. They have no one good, anywhere. If you put a Matt Ryan back there, they would be worse off because he has no weapons. Willis McGahee is averaging 5 ypc and has 640 yards rushing despite missing two games and a part of a third. Eric Decker has been pretty good, the O line has been average. But how much of a lack of production in the WR/TE corp do you put on those guys and how much on the QB who can’t throw? > [@treis](#): > > You also don’t give him enough credit for not turning the ball over. Need I get it tattooed on my face? I’ve said he’s done a very good job at protecting the ball. Three times now I’ve said that. > [@treis](#): > > Sanchez’s pick 6 is the difference in the game. No it wasn’t. It was all Tebow. Tebow not throwing int’s or fumbing is responsible for that pick 6. > [@treis](#): > > Tebow has one interception in 5 games now. That’s great, and a pretty huge reason for the improvement in defense. C’mon now. While a QB not throwing interceptions certainly helps a defense, “pretty huge reason” is just silly. Von Miller is having an awesome rookie year with 9.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles and may well be the defensive rookie of the year. Champ Bailey is finally healthy after missing three games early (with Orton starting). Elvis Dumervill missed 2 games early and parts of others, but now has 3.5 sacks in his last 3 games. Yet these guys get 1% of the publicity and 10% of the credit that Tebow does for Denver’s victories. Go figure. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/86 "2011-11-18T15:47:19Z")
Opponents’ records for the first five games: 29-16 Opponents’ records for the last five games: 22-24 Opponents’ QB rating for the fist five games: 86, 107, 119, 134, 87 Opponents’ QB rating for the last five games: 93, 131, 80, 67, 68 If you want to compare a team they played twice, the Raiders, the Raiders averaged 4.9 ypc and had a QB rating of 86.4 in the first game, and averaged 3.8 YPC and had a QB rating of 79.7 in the second game. The stats of those opponents is independent of any turnover difference. The offense of the opposite team had a good game every single game for the first 5. For the second 5 there was 1 good game, that the Broncos lost, and the rest were mediocre to bad. The difference is very clearly quality of opponents and increased quality of play from the defense. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/87 "2011-11-18T16:05:04Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Willis McGahee is averaging 5 ypc and has 640 yards rushing despite missing two games and a part of a third. Eric Decker has been pretty good, the O line has been average. But how much of a lack of production in the WR/TE corp do you put on those guys and how much on the QB who can’t throw? They weren’t any good when Orton was throwing to them. McGahee has had a few good games, but he hasn’t been a consistent performer this year. > [@Hamlet](#): > > Von Miller is having an awesome rookie year with 9.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles and may well be the defensive rookie of the year. Champ Bailey is finally healthy after missing three games early (with Orton starting). Elvis Dumervill missed 2 games early and parts of others, but now has 3.5 sacks in his last 3 games. > > Yet these guys get 1% of the publicity and 10% of the credit that Tebow does for Denver’s victories. Go figure. Because they were losing, changed one thing, and now they are winning. That’s why Tebow’s getting the attention. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/88 "2011-11-18T16:14:06Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Because they were losing, changed one thing, and now they are winning. That’s why Tebow’s getting the attention. That’s not true, they also traded away one of their top WRs for a draft pick. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/89 "2011-11-18T16:47:56Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Because they were losing, changed one thing, and now they are winning. So, Von Miller’s development, the return of Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervill (two of their best defensive players), and playing worse teams don’t count as “change”? Interesting thinking. > [@treis](#): > > That’s why Tebow’s getting the attention. He was getting attention before he set foot on the football field. But now he’s getting credit now for a vast improvement in the health and play of their defense. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe Tebow should be the defensive player of the year with how much he’s improved that Denver defense. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/90 "2011-11-18T17:11:45Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > He was getting attention before he set foot on the football field. Absolutely. Not too many third-string quarterbacks (which is what he was last year) see their jerseys among the best-selling NFL merchandise. ---
**Author:** ![Duke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/91 "2011-11-18T17:17:46Z")
If I may throw my two cents in, it always seemed to me that in college football the triple option (really, any option offense) works in one of two circumstances: either you have a better, stronger, and faster offensive line than your opponents; or you wear down your opponent and eventually break through by means of attrition. I think with the Jets game and the Dolphins game, especially, we’ve seen part #2: the option didn’t seem particularly effective until the last drive of the game when the opposing defense was theoretically most tired. But if that’s the case, it’s a strategy that’s working in spite of itself. I remember how the old Nebraska option offenses used to win by controlling the ball forever and keeping the other team’s defense on the field. Yet Denver’s ToP even after the last drive was only 27:48 last night, and in the overtime game against the Dolphins they only held the ball a minute more than Miami. I think this is a major reason the Denver’s option hasn’t been more effective. Historically, Denver has had an excellent (if controversial) offensive line that’s particularly known for run blocking. They’re one of the few teams in the NFL that could even think about trying the option. The problem seems to be that even they can’t make up for how bad Tebow is as a thrower. Up until the last drive, the Broncos ran the ball 28 times and threw it 16 times. Those 16 passes only accounted for 69 yards. With that kind of pass production, the Jets could afford to look for the run first, and they did. (I should add here that McGahee’s 12 for 18 performance was pathetic no matter what the context. If he’d been able to get even a few first downs the game would have looked very different.) What I’m not getting here is that for all the talk of running the option, Denver’s not really doing it. Before that last drive Tebow threw the ball 15 times and ran with it only twice. It was really only in the last drive that you could say that Denver was running a true option offense–otherwise it was mostly McGahee up the middle for almost no gain. IMH and non-coach O if Denver wants to keep succeeding they either have to commit to the option and run it more frequently, and likely platoon Tebow with a QB that poses at least some pass threat. A pass threat is going to set up the run and wear down the defense, which in turn makes the option more of a threat. Simply put Denver’s D cannot be counted on to win every game. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/92 "2011-11-18T17:40:56Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > So, Von Miller’s development, the return of Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervill (two of their best defensive players), and playing worse teams don’t count as “change”? Interesting thinking. Bailey game back two games before the switch, and Dumervill three. > [@Hamlet](#): > > He was getting attention before he set foot on the football field. But now he’s getting credit now for a vast improvement in the health and play of their defense. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe Tebow should be the defensive player of the year with how much he’s improved that Denver defense. Yes, you’ve beaten the shit out of this dead horse. The reality is, Denver’s defense isn’t that much improved, and a lot of that improvement came because of ball control and low turnovers. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/93 "2011-11-18T17:53:31Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Yes, you’ve beaten the shit out of this dead horse. The reality is, Denver’s defense isn’t that much improved, and a lot of that improvement came because of ball control and low turnovers. Denver’s defense has significantly improved on a per play basis. You are wrong. The quality of opponents has also significantly decreased. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/94 "2011-11-18T17:55:53Z")
> [@treis](#): > > Yes, you’ve beaten the shit out of this dead horse. Did it sink in this time? Have you grasped the fact that when Denver’s defense plays well, they’ve won, and when they don’t, they lose? You get it now that in the games that Tebow has won by himself, the defense has averaged the #2 scoring defense in the NFL? I thought when you said that the pick 6 on Sanchez was the differencemaker in the game last night, you might have, oh I don’t know, meant it and realized that the defense had more to do with that victory than Tebow. Or that great victory against the Chiefs the week before, where the defense knocked their starting QB out and held the Chiefs to 140 yards passing (which was more than Tebow threw for) and got 4 sacks. Or when they beat the Raiders, when they got 3 interceptions off Palmer. Damn, Tebow sure plays great defense. > [@treis](#): > > The reality is, Denver’s defense isn’t that much improved, and a lot of that improvement came because of ball control and low turnovers. Can you get me Angelina Jolie and a couple million dollars from your “reality” because I could use them in this one. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/95 "2011-11-18T18:02:18Z")
I keep expecting George Burns/God to show up and say “The last miracle I did was the 1969 Mets. Before that, I think you have to go back to the Red Sea. Look, people, you’re reading too much onto this Tebow thing. Don’t worry about throwing mechanics and all that; just relax and enjoy the game…oh, by the way, I having to do with anybody scoring touchdowns, so try to keep the channels clear for more important stuff, O.K.?” This whole thing is cracking me up. I was pretty skeptical about his skills and still wish he’d STFU about Jesus, but it’s fun watching this happen and all the muckety-mucks gyrating over it. ---
**Author:** ![ReticulatingSplines](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e274bd/32.png) [@ReticulatingSplines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ReticulatingSplines)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/96 "2011-11-18T18:10:35Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I thought when you said that the pick 6 on Sanchez was the differencemaker in the game last night, you might have, oh I don’t know, meant it and realized that the defense had more to do with that victory than Tebow. No, clearly what he meant was that if Orton had started the game, Goodman would have instead batted that pass down in disgust at how uninspiring his quarterback is, or perhaps even let Sanchez complete it. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/97 "2011-11-18T18:18:21Z")
Curse my phone keypad skills; meant to type “…I have nothing to do with anyone scoring…” ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/98 "2011-11-18T18:56:43Z")
Some perspective from [Sports Illustrated’s Peter King](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/11/18/week-11/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a2), making some of the same observations that have been made in this thread: > [@Peter King](#): > > There should be Tebowmania, locally and nationally, after Broncos 17, Jets 13, and after Tim Tebow drove the Broncos 95 yards in the final minutes to the winning touchdown. Which, of course, he ran for. But let’s look at three quite important facts from this game, and from Denver’s 4-1 stretch since Tebow took the starting job from Kyle Orton: > > • Denver’s defense, led by rookie Von Miller and returning pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil, has been rampaging in the last month. Miller overran Wayne Hunter for a vital sack on the Jets’ final drive Thursday night, and the Broncos have had 13 sacks in the four wins under Tebow. They’ve also allowed just 62 points in those four wins … and allowed a sputtering offense to have a chance to win those close games late. > > • Tebow’s completion percentage hasn’t topped 50 percent in a single game this year. But in 20 quarters since being named the starter, he’s fumbled once and thrown one interception – and he’s been turnover-free in the four wins. > > • One more thing about the Denver defense I’ve loved: In the four wins, it’s allowed just 23.5 percent of third downs to be converted into firsts. That’s pressure defense right there. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/99 "2011-11-18T19:20:58Z")
I hadn’t really seen this kind of discussion of Denver’s defense in previous Tebow threads, and to me it’s very convincing. It’s going to be a big headache for Denver’s front office if the defense keeps playing great, the offense keeps playing at a barely adequate but probably unsustainable level, and the fans and press continue to give so much of the credit to Tebow. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840/100 "2011-11-18T19:49:11Z")
I don’t think anybody doubts that Tebow’s capable of 104 passing yards and 68 rushing yards per game. He can do that. In any situation where that’s enough to win, sure, Tim Tebow’s a winner. That isn’t true of everyone. But over 16 games, how many can you really expect to win with an offense geared to your quarterback’s strengths that still only produces numbers like that? I don’t think it’s “hating” on Tebow, and I don’t think it’s ignoring the “results” to say that this has all the appearances of a thing that they can’t keep up. There’s a difference between saying that he has won these games: awesome for him and saying he will continue to win these games: he is awesome. Not ruining your team’s shit isn’t always enough to win games. There will be games where your offense needs to produce, and there will be games where that means Tebow has to throw. Better runners than he have been forced to. You can see [here](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TeboTi00/gamelog/#stats::11) – if that link works properly it should be sorted by pass attempts – how that tends to go. Look at the correlation of pass attempts to QB rating. Yesterday’s isn’t on there and would actually ruin the perfect progression, but it’s a pretty obvious formula. It isn’t like he has that magic no-interception brain. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/i-was-wrong-theres-a-big-downside-to-letting-tim-tebow-start/602840.md?page=6)