# Idle Speculation: Next Film to hit a Billion **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [June 18, 2004, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128 "2004-06-18T23:28:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![well\_he\_s\_back](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/3ab097/32.png) [@well\_he\_s\_back](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/well_he_s_back)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2004, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/1 "2004-06-18T23:28:11Z")
At Boxoffice Mojo, they say that “Titanic” and “Return of the King” are the 2 only individual movies that have made over one billion at the box office. Any thoughts on what kind of flick will be the next? Now, if you hate those two you could just answer “another film I despise”, but there’s probably plenty of films you despise that didn’t make it to a billion. Also, if I knew what would make a Billion, I’d get my friends together, make that movie and retire. So, yes, this is idle speculation. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2004, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/2 "2004-06-18T23:39:11Z")
It’s very hard to say. For every blockbuster that lives up to expectations (which is a short list) there are many more that fall short. Peter Jackson is “king of the world” right now after _LOTR_, but I seriously doubt that _King Kong_ is going to hit $1B. Looking at the Box Office Mojo list, if I had to put money down right now I would place it on _Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban_. I thought it was a better film than the first two, and since they both ranked very high, I might get lucky. That being said, I doubt it will make it. Of course, if we wait long enough, $1B will become easier and easier. Considering that ticket prices have increased at least 100% in the last 15 years, we’ll see a movie make $1B \*\*domestically \*\* in the next 15 years. ---
**Author:** ![SmackFu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/53a042/32.png) [@SmackFu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SmackFu)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/3 "2004-06-19T00:14:24Z")
[Shrek 2](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=shrek2.htm) should be close. It’s made $365M domestic and hasn’t opened in most of the rest of the world yet. If the domestic / int’l split is the same as the first one, it won’t make it. But that’s hard to predict. My longer term prediction is Mission: Impossible 3. The first two made over $500M in 1996 and 2000, and by 2005, between the pent-up demand and the general box office escalation, it should be easy. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/4 "2004-06-19T00:30:20Z")
_Star Wars Episode III: \_. If Lucas doesn’t totally screw it up. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/5 "2004-06-19T01:07:24Z")
_Forrest Gump II: Electric Boogaloo_ ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/6 "2004-06-19T01:33:48Z")
> [@Mr. Blue Sky](#): > > If Lucas doesn’t totally screw it up. Yeah, like if that’s not for sure not going to not happen. (I think that means what I meant; that Lucas is gonna screw it up) ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/7 "2004-06-19T01:47:15Z")
> [@Qadgop the Mercotan](#): > > Yeah, like if that’s not for sure not going to not happen. > > (I think that means what I meant; that Lucas is gonna screw it up) I don’t not disagree with you. I think. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/8 "2004-06-19T02:17:53Z")
> [@Mr. Blue Sky](#): > > I don’t not disagree with you. > > I think. Some movies don’t not make even less. ---
**Author:** ![Ilsa\_Lund](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a6a055/32.png) [@Ilsa\_Lund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ilsa_Lund)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/9 "2004-06-19T02:34:04Z")
I willl not buy this tobacconist, it is scratched! [sub]Spiderman 2?[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/10 "2004-06-19T03:08:00Z")
Harry Potter 7. Whatever it ends up being called. ---
**Author:** ![emekthian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecae2f/32.png) [@emekthian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emekthian)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/11 "2004-06-19T04:03:55Z")
The Candyland Movie starring Pauly Shore. Provided, of course, that the U.S. dollar undergoes massive, Depression-era-Germany style hyperinflation. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2004, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/12 "2004-06-19T04:10:32Z")
And tickets cost $1 Billion each. And Pauly’s mom is still alive. ---
**Author:** ![Beauty\_Personified](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e480ec/32.png) [@Beauty\_Personified](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beauty_Personified)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2004, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/idle-speculation-next-film-to-hit-a-billion/251128/13 "2004-06-28T07:25:43Z")
I was really surprised by how quickly _Shrek 2_ caught up and passed the _Finding Nemo_ totals in North America. _Nemo_ made over $850 million worldwide. If _Shrek 2_ doesn’t lose steam, it should hit a billion, IMO. I think _Spider-Man 2_ has a chance as well. The first one made over $800 million worldwide, and the sequel has a lot of hype and excellent reviews behind it. People that missed the first one in theatres, only to learn from others that they missed a great film, will likely not want to miss this one. I managed to convince both my parents to go see the first _Spider-Man_, and they’re actually anxious to see the sequel. Wow! (I just wish Marvel had stuck with the idea to call the sequel _The Amazing Spider-Man_.) Anyhoo…