# If a recession happens under Trump, how will that affect the 2018 and 2020 elections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 17, 2017, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362 "2017-03-17T00:30:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/1 "2017-03-17T00:30:49Z")
I’ve heard we are overdue for one, they occur every 10 years or so. If one occurs, will it have any impact on the upcoming elections? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/2 "2017-03-17T00:45:19Z")
Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Yersenia\_Pestis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/e495f1/32.png) [@Yersenia\_Pestis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yersenia_Pestis)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/3 "2017-03-17T01:07:47Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I’ve heard we are overdue for one, they occur every 10 years or so. If one occurs, will it have any impact on the upcoming elections? The only thing that’s going to help republicans is the notion of the “trump boom” economy - which is complete bs but something the deplorables truly believe will ultimately benefit them (spoiler alert: no mr poor, uneducated white person it’s not going to help you at all). The question is how gullible are these idiots and how much panis et circuses can Con man in chief throw their way to keep this obvious truth from slapping them in the face… “this weeks boogeyman: immigrants, Mexicans! Blame obama!!” ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/4 "2017-03-17T01:33:41Z")
As far as I can tell from what he’s done so far, all Trump needs is maybe one filibuster by the Democrats that he can point to and say _See? Until we drain the swamp in Congress, my plans to Make America Great Again keep getting blocked by people who want to ruin this country! It’s their fault, not mine!_ I mean, yeah, granted, he’d presumably say something like that anyway. But if there’s actually something – pretty much _anything_, really – for him to point at while he’s furiously ranting? Well, folks seem to hear that and then vote Republican. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/5 "2017-03-17T02:26:13Z")
It will absolutely hurt the Republicans, recessions always hurt the party in power. It can get a little complicated if parties share power. I believe in 1992 Clinton won but Democrats lost ground in Congress. But we’re not divided, so any recession will cause Republican losses. How much depends on whether it’s cyclical or because Republicans did something really stupid. Given the way things look now, a recession before 2018 seems unlikely. A recession heading into the 2020 elections though seems very likely. I’d be very surprised if we avoided one that long. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/6 "2017-03-17T03:33:25Z")
Haven’t you been listening? It’s all Obama’s fault. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/7 "2017-03-17T03:59:03Z")
> [@Yersenia\_Pestis](#): > > The only thing that’s going to help republicans is the notion of the “trump boom” economy - which is complete bs but something the deplorables truly believe will ultimately benefit them (spoiler alert: no mr poor, uneducated white person it’s not going to help you at all). Yeah, I think this explains it well enough–though it isn’t just the working class who support trump. The myth that was spun after the election was that it was all about the white working class, but in fact, there was a broad range of income levels voting for him. Stupidity afflicts all classes. And while there were deplorable types supporting him, the way I look at it, it was the suckers who gave him just enough electoral votes to squeak by a hollow win. ---
**Author:** ![ckalli1998](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a3d4f5/32.png) [@ckalli1998](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ckalli1998)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/8 "2017-03-17T04:26:57Z")
> [@Yersenia\_Pestis](#): > > The only thing that’s going to help republicans is the notion of the “trump boom” economy - which is complete bs but something the deplorables truly believe will ultimately benefit them (spoiler alert: no mr poor, uneducated white person it’s not going to help you at all). The question is how gullible are these idiots and how much panis et circuses can Con man in chief throw their way to keep this obvious truth from slapping them in the face… “this weeks boogeyman: immigrants, Mexicans! Blame obama!!” Nice spelling, genius. Anyway, there won’t be a recession, so this question is moot ---
**Author:** ![ckalli1998](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a3d4f5/32.png) [@ckalli1998](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ckalli1998)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/9 "2017-03-17T04:28:44Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > Yeah, I think this explains it well enough–though it isn’t just the working class who support trump. The myth that was spun after the election was that it was all about the white working class, but in fact, there was a broad range of income levels voting for him. Stupidity afflicts all classes. And while there were deplorable types supporting him, the way I look at it, it was the suckers who gave him just enough electoral votes to squeak by a hollow win. If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. Trump has accomplished more in 2 months than a lot of previous presidents have. Even before he got into office, he saved and created 5800 jobs with the Carrier and Sprint deals. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/10 "2017-03-17T04:45:04Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. Reported. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/11 "2017-03-17T04:53:35Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > Nice spelling, genius. > > Anyway, there won’t be a recession, so this question is moot Since you’re relatively new, I probably would have let this one go with a note to adhere to the rules. However there’s this: > [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. This is a warning for personal insults. If you feel you must, the BBQ Pit is right around the corner. [/moderating] ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/12 "2017-03-17T12:23:43Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. > > Trump has accomplished more in 2 months than a lot of previous presidents have. Even before he got into office, he saved and created 5800 jobs with the Carrier and Sprint deals. If you’ve fallen for that publicity stunt–or, in general, any of Trump’s cheap political theatrics–then you’ve made my point. However, so as not to hurt your feelings, I’ll use the term _gullible_, instead. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/13 "2017-03-17T15:19:42Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > If you’ve fallen for that publicity stunt–or, in general, any of Trump’s cheap political theatrics–then you’ve made my point. However, so as not to hurt your feelings, I’ll use the term _gullible_, instead. Please do not make comments that appear to insult other posters. Your first post #7 was broad enough but here you narrow the focus. [/moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/14 "2017-03-17T15:42:27Z")
Recessions always have a significant effect on elections. How much depends on how good a messaging job the Democrats do in tying the Trump Slump to Lord Orange and his party. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/15 "2017-03-17T16:10:51Z")
[Remember what happened to George H.W. Bush.](http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/george-hw-bush-presidential-polls/2014/08/12/id/588216/) > [@](#): > > Bush’s approval rating in a Gallup poll conducted from February into March 1991, shortly after Iraq’s military forces were ousted from Kuwait, stood at 89 percent. > > A Gallup poll conducted from July into August 1992, months before his re-election bid, showed Bush’s approval rating at just 29 percent. > > \ > > But by 1992, the economy was in recession and unemployment stood at 7.8 percent, the highest since 1984. Bush was forced to absorb much of the blame, and conservatives castigated him for breaking his “no new taxes” campaign pledge. ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/16 "2017-03-17T16:40:33Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. > > Trump has accomplished more in 2 months than a lot of previous presidents have. Even before he got into office, he saved and created 5800 jobs with the Carrier and Sprint deals. He eliminated more jobs than that within the Federal Government. ---
**Author:** ![Yodalicious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yodalicious/32/8195_2.png) [@Yodalicious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yodalicious)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/17 "2017-03-17T16:49:41Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. > > Trump has accomplished more in 2 months than a lot of previous presidents have. Even before he got into office, he saved and created 5800 jobs with the Carrier and Sprint deals. [Trump had nothing to do with the Sprint deal.](https://www.engadget.com/2016/12/28/trump-isnt-responsible-for-sprint-bringing-5-000-jobs-to-the-us/) ---
**Author:** ![Yersenia\_Pestis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/e495f1/32.png) [@Yersenia\_Pestis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yersenia_Pestis)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/18 "2017-03-17T20:14:02Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > Nice spelling, genius. > > Anyway, there won’t be a recession, so this question is moot Nothing to say about this except that I hope one day you will wake to the reality of how out of touch your right wing propaganda driven views are… ---
**Author:** ![Yersenia\_Pestis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/e495f1/32.png) [@Yersenia\_Pestis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yersenia_Pestis)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/19 "2017-03-17T20:17:01Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > If you believe all 63 million Trump voters “stupid”, then the only fucktard in the room is you. > > Trump has accomplished more in 2 months than a lot of previous presidents have. Even before he got into office, he saved and created 5800 jobs with the Carrier and Sprint deals. Really? Which presidents are you talking about? Have you factored in the fact that he took over during (an Obama driven) economic recovery? Unlike right wing garbage sites, we like proof here at SDMB. Do you really think large companies create jobs overnight? It takes months and months of planning and understanding the demands of the marketplace… ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2017, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362/20 "2017-03-17T20:23:11Z")
‘If’? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-a-recession-happens-under-trump-how-will-that-affect-the-2018-and-2020-elections/782362.md?page=2)