# If another nuclear bomb is ever exploded on a city, what is the most likely scenario?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [March 11, 2014, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405 "2014-03-11T02:43:48Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 6\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\
**Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/41 "2014-03-13T17:36:36Z")

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> [@Frank\_Merton](#):
>
> The Iranians are really stupid if they end up with a nuclear arsenal, because that will force Israel to act and the Iranians will come out destroyed.

“Force Israel to act”? So ya mean, that [Stuxnet Virus Attack](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) and the ongoing [assassinations of nuclear scientists](http://rt.com/news/iran-obama-assassination-scientists-443/) are simply business as usual?

> [@Gray\_Ghost](#):
>
> …but would the U.S., due to prior Acts of Congress, legally be allowed to continue to supply aid to Israel if Israel were to overtly claim that they had nuclear weapons? If so, that could be one reason why Israel and the U.S. have always been coy about whether Israel has them or not.

Do you have a cite for those Acts? Not doubting your words, it’s just that I’ve never heard of such a thing and don’t know how to search for it.

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**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\
**Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/42 "2014-03-13T20:55:11Z")

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A side question here.

Aren’t nuclear weapons quite difficult to detonate ? Would a terrorists group be able to pull that off with a stolen weapon ?

Personally I would think a nuclear event in a major city would have to be a state sponsored event.

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**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\
**Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/43 "2014-03-13T21:54:38Z")

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Yes, the detonation business is extremely complicated.

Alas, that problem has been solved so many times, the details are damn near publicly available.

Also…a sub-critical detonation would serve most of the purposes as a full explosion, as far as terrorists are concerned. If a ten-block area of Manhattan became dangerously radioactive, and a thousand people could be expected to die over the course of years (and another ten thousand expected to suffer health problems) then the terrorist group could very well be content in having struck a damaging blow.

So…damned if it goes bang, and damned if it goes sizzle.

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**Author:** ![buddha\_david](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ee7513/32.png) [@buddha\_david](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buddha_david)\
**Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/44 "2014-03-14T01:50:02Z")

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No nuclear weapon has ever “accidentally” exploded. At least, none that have ever been made public…and how could anything like that be covered up???

However, in 1961, a B-52 carrying two [Mark 39](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W39) nuclear bombs (yield = 3.8mt) [crashed in Goldsboro, N.C.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash) – on one of the bombs, five of six safeties failed, which means we came extremely close to having an Unrequested Operation Plowshare incident. :eek:

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**Author:** ![Frank\_Merton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Frank\_Merton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank_Merton)\
**Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/45 "2014-03-14T04:03:55Z")

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If Iran develops and deploys an arsenal of nuclear weapons, I think Israel will have no choice but to act pre-emptively and reduce Iran to rubble (such intensity would be necessary because such a deployment would be “hardened”).

This would of course be a disaster for mankind in many ways.

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**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\
**Post date:** [March 14, 2014, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-another-nuclear-bomb-is-ever-exploded-on-a-city-what-is-the-most-likely-scenario/683405/46 "2014-03-14T05:05:41Z")

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> [@Frank\_Merton](#):
>
> If Iran develops and deploys an arsenal of nuclear weapons, I think Israel will have no choice but to act pre-emptively and reduce Iran to rubble (such intensity would be necessary because such a deployment would be “hardened”).
> 
> This would of course be a disaster for mankind in many ways.

Does Israel believe Pakistan is beholden to it? Pakistan is extremely hostile to Israel, and had a nuclear Walmart to boot. If push comes to shove, Pakistani nukes are what will threaten Israel, not Iran’s.

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