You are right that perhaps I am overlooking the changes in play now that will seem so fundamental in 10 years. But I don’t think self-driving cars are close enough to be that thing.
If autonomous cars coupled with an electrified transportation network and ubiquitous public transportation made getting anywhere almost free, I could see losing that being a shock akin to losing the internet and social media. But self-driving cars are still decades away. The average car sold today will be on the roads for 20 years or so. The average age of a car in the US is reportedly 11.9 years. So, roughly, for every new car there is a 24 year old car on the road. Kids in ten years will have plenty of experience with non-self driving cars even if some of them have recently gotten used to riding in a few of them by then.
As an aside, I think the average car age statistics in the US actually understates reality. For a long time, the reported average age of automobiles statistic from IIHS assumed any vehicle over 20 years old was no more than 20 years old, which tended to skew the average down. It didn’t matter much when typical new cars didn’t make it anywhere near 20 years and when auto sales were growing rapidly but, in a time when car sales have plateaued or dropped and the many of the remaining cars are well over 20 years old (I have one that is 56), the skew today could be significant. Unfortunately, the underlying data supporting the IIHS’s age estimate is no longer readily available so I can’t see if they changed their methodology but there is no single year giant bump in age that might make a methodology change apparent.