If China and the US went to war who would win?

I disagree.

Not all the evidence would be vaporized. A lot of residue from the original bomb material would be flying around in the form of fallout, and if Tom Clancy is right (in his novel The Sum of All Fears), the material should carry some kind of spectrographic or nuclear hallmarks that would indicate where it came from.

A major potential target like Manhattan might have high-resolution satellite coverage 24/7; if so, the NSA and FBI might be able to determine the precise location where the blast originated, and (if in a vehicle) the make and model of the truck carrying the bomb.

Any phone, fax, or e-mail communications between the bomber and his foreign patrons might be picked up by Echelon or Carnivore.

Unless the bomber was on a suicide mission, he’d probably be hightailing it away from the scene. The feds would probably clamp down on all ports of entry and start examining everybody going abroad for any trace elements of bomb material.

I don’t think any foreign government would consider taking the kind of terrorist action you suggest. It wouldn’t cripple us, and the backlash would make “Remember Pearl Harbor” seem like a mild grudge. The risk would be too great and the returns way too small.

And I’ll still maintain that the U.S. would not engage Chinese forces in a massive land battle unless there was absolutely no other way to fight them (say, if they were on the move invading their neighbors).

The meaning of Air Supremacy today is totally different than what it was during the Vietnam or Korean wars. The existance of satellite targeting and smart bombs means that with air supremacy you can destroy anything in the country you want to, at any time. Even in Vietnam, the only way to hit many industrial targets was to carpet-bomb an area, often with mixed success.

You can bet that American Intelligence has the Chinese military command completely mapped out. Somewhere in the Pentagon is a war plan which describes in detail exactly which targets to hit for maximum damage to China’s ability to wage war. After air supremacy is achieved, those targets will all be gone within hours. After that, any army that attempts to mobilize in large numbers will be decimated from the air.

Remember, Iraq was utterly, totally crushed, and we didn’t even break a sweat. Almost no casualties, and huge sections of the American military were not even engaged. That war was carried out surgically. In an all-out, them or us type of war, the U.S. and various allies could bring an incredible amount of destructive power to bear, even without nuclear weapons.

Seems to me they could make their bomb out of Soviet nuclear material, bits of which have leaked onto the black market over the years.

So knowing where it came from would only be the beginning of the detective work. But at least it does constitute workable evidence.

Does anyone have any doubt that this is now a Great Debate?

The answer is no one. Both sides plus the world as we know it would lose, and lose big time. It would not be a limited war, I beleive it would be global and not pretty.

General Patton - “The point of war is not to die for your country. It’s to make the other son of a bitch die for his.”

roryaxis:

I can think of a few :wink: . The British in Malaysia comes to mind. But the general tenor of your point is well taken :slight_smile: .

Sam Stone: I disagree that the comparison between China and Iraq is that apt.
a.) China is vastly larger. Even if you cut out peripheral, lighty populated areas you still have a region equivalent to the U.S. east of the Mississippi.

b.) The terrain and weather are far more complex and much more difficult.

c.) Probable staging areas compared to the theatre of operations are much more restricted. The Phillipines and Japan ( no guarantee of use for either one ) are pretty far out. Taiwan is pretty small ( reltively speaking ) and only really has close access to South China. And with the limited choice of U.S. staging areas ( all in the East ) they could always pull the old Soviet WW II stunt and relocate war materials factories and such out West in the Tarim Basin or other inaccessible areas.

d.) The Iraqi army was ridiculously overrated. They never qualified for 3rd or 4th largest army unless you included every single 60-year old reservist. If you did that for every single army in the world they woud have ranked 30th or 40th. I see that game being played all the time by the press. I remember a decade or so ago when there was controversy about U.S. troops in Korea, the argument was made that the North Korean Army was much larger than South Korea’s. Except it wasn’t. It’s just they included the reserves for NK and omitted them for SK. In fact SK’s standing army was larger by about 100,000 troops ( and better armed to boot ).

Furthermore most of Iraq’s troops were poorly trained and indifferently led. Their quality as soldiers was minimal, their loyalty to the regime only marginally above that. Even their best didn’t amount to much more than average for better armies. Despite a terrible equipment situation ( which eventually lost them the war ), the Iranians regularly kicked their ass in most close combat actions ( and the few armored exchanges as well ). The Turks would have chewed them up and spit them out.

Saddam regularly eliminated the most competent officers for fear of coups - Either they were shot or stuck in the engineering corps ( the one fairly imaginative and professional branch of the Iraqi army ).

e.)The PLA is likely underrated. Unlike the Iraqi’s, they are not tomato-cans. I’d put them more on the level of the Serbs. Strong military tradition, solid discipline, significant ideological motivation and loyalty to the regime, good ( and resilient ) morale, reasonable training. Moreover they are more philosophically tolerant of high casualties.

They are technologically and logistically deficient, too be sure. But as someone else mentiuoned they are also less dependent on C[sub]3[/sub]I than their Western counterparts. In a purely defensive posture they would be dangerous ( I agree they have virtually zero chance of forcing the Taiwan straits in the teeth of U.S, opposition any time soon ).

f.) I think you’re giving too much credit to airpower in the Gulf War. Not to minimize the impact of the bombing campaign ( it certainly had a major effect ), but the the ground army would have chewed up the Iraqi’s regardless ( they just ended up having a much, much easier time of it ). Fact of the matter is that all those precision munitions turned out to be rather less effective in post-war analyses than reports at the time indicated. It was actually quite a bit less surgical than the military was claiming during the war. Furthermore they represented only a very small percentage of the total tonnage dropped on Iraq. Smart bombs are pricey, missles more so. They do not now and probably never will make up the majority of the munitions used by any air force. Dumb bombs get the job done just fine. Most of the bombs dropped were as carpet bombs.

And Iraq would not have fallen to air power alone, no matter how many Air Force generals claim otherwise :smiley: . They were dug into bunkers and they would have just squatted there indefinitely. They were prepared to ride out a siege. Most of the Iraqi losses, even to air attacks, occurred after the ground forces flushed them out of their defensive fortifications ( or buried them in them ). Not in the weeks of bombing beforehand.

At any rate, as I’ve said, China ain’t Iraq :smiley: . In an area as large as China, against a foe as dispersed, low profile, and equipment light as the PLA, in much more rugged and varied terrain, they will be considerably less effective. Air power will be, period. The armor-heavy Iraqi’s in the desert were sitting ducks ( once they started to move, anyway ). The Chinese light infantry in the woods won’t be ( as much ).

Not to say any of the above answers the OP’s question - I don’t know the answer. But you’re giving the impression ( to me, at least ) that you think this would be a simple affair. I don’t think that’s the case :wink: .

Just MHO :slight_smile: .

  • Tamerlane

Weird how the mind will do that. Roryaxis originally wrote “won” of course, not “one”. That was my faulty synapses at work :stuck_out_tongue: .

  • Tamerlane