# If Clinton stays out, who is likely to be the nominee? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 13, 2014, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100 "2014-12-13T08:33:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/81 "2014-12-18T15:29:05Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > By your definition of “progressive”, none. The American electorate is nothing like the SDMB, and it doesn’t matter how many articles you find that divvies them up seventeen different ways. > > The SDMB is way left of the American center. > > Regards, > Shodan > [@adaher](#): > > Winning elections involves decades of laying the groundwork by changing minds. Warren could end up being part of a sea change in US politics, because she is actually making an argument. But it will take 20-30 years of more people than her making that argument before it bears fruit. In 2016, no progressive can win a Presidential election. > [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Polls indicate that on many issues the American people are WAAAAAAY to the left of Washington. Marijuana legalization, income inequality, and quite recently, gayness. So don’t be so sure about that, Shodan. Look at it this way: The American majority was never as conservative as Reagan, but that didn’t stop him from winning once he had a zealous grassroots conservative movement behind him and caught his moment. Politics is often about leveraging plurality-appeal into an electoral majority. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/82 "2014-12-18T15:31:06Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > I think it is moderately likely there will be a major financial and economic crash well before 20-30 years from now. What do you base that on? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/83 "2014-12-18T16:04:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Look at it this way: The American majority was never as conservative as Reagan, but that didn’t stop him from winning once he had a zealous grassroots conservative movement behind him and caught his moment. Politics is often about leveraging plurality-appeal into an electoral majority. The challenge for progressives, that Reagan didn’t have to worry about, is that they can’t point to a positive institution to counter the evil corporations. The government is held in just as low esteem. A Warren campaign at this point would either be nothing but anger at Wall Street, or would be anger at Wall Street mixed with positive views of government that very few people believe. And the Obama administration has NOT helped in that regard. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/84 "2014-12-18T16:14:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are already anti-Wall street elements in both parties. If anything, the GOP side is stronger. Even Warren supports the Ex-Im Bank. She’s just not as anti-Wall Street as she thinks she is. Serious question to fight my own ignorance: What’s not to like about the export import bank? Its revenue positive, so it doesn’t cost the tax payer, it supports American business exporting abroad in a way that other nations support their businesses, and unlike a protective tariff it doesn’t American consumers. I know a certain class of people have a bee in their bonnet about it but I’ve never been able to figure out why. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/85 "2014-12-18T16:20:30Z")
It distorts markets and hurts some American companies, like Delta, since Delta doesn’t get subsidies to buy Boeing jets like European airlines do. It mainly helps a few huge businesses that would be just fine without it. It’s as bad as oil company subsidies. It is corporate welfare. That alone should make all but corporate-friendly politiicans against it. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/86 "2014-12-18T20:39:42Z")
This is scary: I’m actually agreeing with **Shodan** : > [@](#): > > By your definition of “progressive”, none. The American electorate is nothing like the SDMB, and it doesn’t matter how many articles you find that divvies them up seventeen different ways. and **adaher** : > [@](#): > > Winning elections involves decades of laying the groundwork by changing minds. Warren could end up being part of a sea change in US politics, because she is actually making an argument. But it will take 20-30 years of more people than her making that argument before it bears fruit. In 2016, no progressive can win a Presidential election. Warren is making a difference, but it’s not the sort of difference that’s going to manifest in her personally, or in anyone in her political position, being elected in 2016. She can do more for the cause by pushing legislation through the Senate than she could as President, and she can do more yet than that by simply shining a spotlight on the problems so that future senators and presidents can more freely address them. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2014, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/87 "2014-12-18T21:18:01Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Warren is making a difference, but it’s not the sort of difference that’s going to manifest in her personally, or in anyone in her political position, being elected in 2016. She can do more for the cause by pushing legislation through the Senate than she could as President, and she can do more yet than that by simply shining a spotlight on the problems so that future senators and presidents can more freely address them. I can see her running for the purpose of promoting her ideas, without a real expectation of winning - many primary candidates have done the same in the past. That way, she can move the dialog. If she were 20 years younger, I could see her running in order to set the stage for future runs - but because of her age, that’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/88 "2014-12-19T00:24:09Z")
And as Goldwater proved, even if she ran and lost 40 states, it wouldn’t prevent progressive victories in the future. One thing Warren says which is poppycock but a good soundbite is “Government is the things we do together”. Very Reaganesque. The problem for Warren is that we need a President who will restore faith in government, which is near an all-time low. That means “making the trains run on time” which means a technocrat with experience in doing just that. You can’t pave the way for progressive victories if Americans are anti-government. Democrats like to talk about the “blue wall” that makes it hard for Republicans to win the Presidency, but Democrats face a “red wall” of mistrust of government that makes it impossible for them to get anything done and results in huge midterm backlashes when they try. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/89 "2014-12-19T00:57:52Z")
> [@Serious thoughts requested on some 2016 candidates](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/serious-thoughts-requested-on-some-2016-candidates/704295/137): > > … cannot judge Obama to be a success until the trains start running on time, so to speak… > [@adaher](#): > > … That means “making the trains run on time” … Laddo, you really ought to avoid this phrase, otherwise we might thing you have a hard-on for … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/90 "2014-12-19T01:01:28Z")
IT’s just a phrase often used to denote government actually doing its job right. If there’s a better one, I’d love to hear it. But government that works isn’t fascism, or at least you’d better hope it’s not, otherwise Warren has bigger problems than we initially thought. The point is that in order for Americans to trust government, it has to work well. It has to be accountable. And it has to perform as promised, not underperform but still muddle along “acceptably” since some people are benefitting from a particular program. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/91 "2014-12-19T01:06:08Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I think it’s more related to the era than the party. I believe the first VP to be an active member of an administration was Walter Mondale. Prior to that, you were there for geographical and/or ideological balance. I don’t think Rockefeller, Ford, Agnew, **Humphrey** , LBJ, or Nixon did much but **go to funerals and inquire daily as to the president’s health**. Indeed… A link to Tom Lehrer’s piece [Whatever Became of Hubert?](https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=lehrer+hubert) is in order. > [@](#): > > … > Whatever became of Hubert? > We miss you, so tell us please. > Are you sad? Are you cross? Are you gathering moss > While you wait for the boss to sneeze? > … I certainly hope the Democrats do not turn the 2016 primary campaign into a coronation of Clinton. Though unlikely to become an issue, she has had a couple health scares. We don’t want to be halfway through a largely uncontested primary season when she has another cardiovascular event.s with ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/92 "2014-12-19T01:12:47Z")
It won’t be uncontested and frankly I think that Clinton has a good chance of losing in a primary to a candidate that gets to her left. She’s just too cautious and predictable. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/93 "2014-12-19T01:18:57Z")
Oh goodie, another prediction. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/94 "2014-12-19T01:57:46Z")
The problem is that government working well does not typically equate to people “trusting” it – especially when the media are so fully in control of parties who have a vested interest in it not working well. A fair, just, orderly and efficient government ends up pissing a lot of people off: a lot of that “red tape” is _not_ arbitrary regulation, that stuff is there for a reason, not merely to mess with our freedoms. ---
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/95 "2014-12-19T02:06:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > One thing Warren says which is poppycock but a good soundbite is “Government is the things we do together”. Very Reaganesque… This sounded so dumb, I had to look it up. It’s mostly attributed to a young Barney Frank. How on earth is it “reaganesque”? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/96 "2014-12-19T03:45:49Z")
It’s Reaganesque in that it’s a persuasive statement in favor of an ideology that is positive and uplifting. Persuasive in theory anyway. In practice, government tends to be apart from us and rule over us rather than being something we do collectively. ---
**Author:** ![Dag\_Otto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/439d5e/32.png) [@Dag\_Otto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dag_Otto)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/97 "2014-12-19T05:14:34Z")
Warren/Sanders. Or Sanders/Warren. Either way works. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2014, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/98 "2014-12-19T05:55:39Z")
The most reliable word source online [defines “reaganesque”](http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=reaganesque) as something akin to _façadelicious_. Or, also, referring to naming things after people who are not yet dead. Hey, it was the first hit in the search. That has to mean something, right? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2014, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/99 "2014-12-23T16:18:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > One thing Warren says which is poppycock but a good soundbite is “Government is the things we do together”. “Government, after all, is society; it is all of us getting together. The economy is not.” – Jeff Madrick, [_Seven Bad Ideas: How Mainstream Economists Have Damaged America and the World_](http://www.amazon.com/Seven-Bad-Ideas-Mainstream-Economists/dp/0307961184/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1415815013&sr=1-1&keywords=seven+bad+ideas) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100/100 "2014-12-23T17:15:47Z")
Um, okay, what else \*would \*you call the mechanism by which we all work together? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/if-clinton-stays-out-who-is-likely-to-be-the-nominee/707100.md?page=6)